So, will banks and business get back in the game now?

[gmoney]

For the past year or so, all I've heard is that banks and businesses are sitting on trillions in cash, but will not lend or spend because of "uncertainty" that taxes might go up and the unknowns of "Obamacare."

And while I won't say the Republicans are in charge now (just running the House isn't enough), they will at least be able to prevent Obama and Democrats from enacting any sort of meaningful legislation.

We'll be at a standstill for the next two years, backsliding, while Obama and the Senate continue to get blamed and bloodied for the country's woes.

Businesses and banks will continue to hoard their cash rather than putting it into circulation. Why? Because it worked very well this election cycle, and it will work even better in 2012.

Then the Republican Apocalypse can start to play out.

[Igel]

1. Have you seen economic uncertainty sharply reduced?

I haven't.

The financial overhaul regulations have yet to be written, thousands of pages of them. HCR is mostly a blank slate. Does have the House go (R) increase the certainty of a specific taxation-rate outcome?

No. In fact, we will not be at a standstill for the next two years. Enough large-scale legislation has been enacted without actually having been written that change will continue; it's just that additional layers of large-scale legislation won't be plopped on top of what's come before.

Then there are the non-legislative routes for laws that shape and compel American society. If the EPA retains carbon regulation authority, what kind of regulations will result? Will they be found legally empowered to unilaterally limit the size of carbon sources that they regulate? What about social issues?

What about the deficit? Will base federal spending go back to 2007 levels? Will reduced government spending trigger a renewed economic contraction? Will the CBO's estimate of reduced economic growth resulting from the 2008 Stimulus II be accurate, overstated, or understated?

Then there are more pressing concerns: Will the velocity of money pick up again? If assets appreciate, will that constitute an inflation of the money supply--causing the Fed to quickly reverse direction and possibly triggering lowered growth?

Will the US adopt the new international recommendations for even greater capital reserve requirements for banks? (After all, increasing them *forced* banks to retain more money the first time around--part of the "keep more money, make fewer loans" requirement foisted on the spendthrifts from 2008 that triggered the "how dare you keep more money and make fewer loans" assault on the prudent in 2009.)

And lets not even start to consider the EU's fiscal policies, what China is doing, or other international issues.

Does all this "increased certainty" mean that we're more likely to see private sector/small business job creation? An increase in applications for small business loans? An increase in "solid buyer" mortgage applications for existing housing stock?