Richard Charnin’s 2010 Midterm House and Senate Forecast Models: RV/LV Polls and Election Fraud bit.ly/adCbdW11/01 Charnin Midterms Model: The Likely Voter Cutoff Model (LVCM)
Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll) source: http://richardcharnin.com/2010ElectionForecastModels.htmNov 1, 2010The Likely Voter Cutoff Model (LVCM)Generic polling data shows that Democrats comprise 58% of registered 2-party voters who do not pass the LVCM screen.
In 2004, there were 22 million voters who did not vote in 2000. Nearly 60% of newly registered voters were Democrats for Kerry. In the 2006 midterms, a Democratic tsunami gave them control of both houses. In 2008, there were approximately 15 million new voters, of whom 70% voted for Obama. All pre-election polls interview registered voters. Likely Voter (LV) polls are a subset of the full Registered Voter (RV) sample. LV polls exclude most "new" registered voters–first-timers and others who did not vote in the prior election.
Most pollsters use the Likely Voter Cutoff Model (
LVCM), a series of questions regarding past voting history, residential transience, intent to vote, etc. Since students, transients, low-income voters, immigrant new voters, etc. are much more likely to give "No" answers than established, wealthier, non-transient voters, Republicans are more likely to exceed the cutoff than Democrats. A respondent who indicates “yes” to four out of seven questions might be down-weighted to 50% compared to one who answers “yes” to all seven.
bit.ly/a8UYRbThe LVCM assigns a weight of
zero to all respondents falling below the cutoff, eliminating them from the sample.
But these potential voters have more than a zero probability of voting. The number of "Yes" answers required to qualify as a likely voter is set based on how the pollster wants the sample to turn out. The more Republicans the pollster wants in the sample, the more "Yes" answers are required. This serves to eliminate many Democrats and skews the sample to the GOP.
In 2010, Generic RV and LV polls project that approximately 70% of registered voters will vote.
Democrats comprise 58% of registered 2-party voters who do not pass the LVCM screen.
Table 1a
Registered vs Likely Voters
CNN/TIME
.96 correlation ratio between RV and LV margins
18
Polls
Average
Wtd Avg
Win
AK
AR
CA
CO
CT
DE
FL
IL
KY
MO
NV
NY1
NY2
OH
PA
WA
WI
WV
RV Full SampleDem
46.5
49.4
10
41
22
56
47
56
61
31
42
46
39
43
60
67
43
45
48
45
45
Rep
41.3
40.4
6
53
36
37
44
37
32
42
38
46
50
32
33
39
49
45
44
48
38
LV subsampleDem
44.6
46.8
7
23
41
52
44
54
57
32
43
42
40
40
55
57
40
44
51
44
44
Rep
45.7
45.3
10
37
55
43
49
44
38
46
42
49
53
42
41
41
55
49
43
52
44
50% of RV-LVDem
45.6
48.1
9
32.0
31.5
54.0
45.5
55.0
59.0
31.5
42.5
44.0
39.5
41.5
57.5
62.0
41.5
44.5
49.5
44.5
44.5
Rep
43.5
42.9
9
45.0
45.5
40.0
46.5
40.5
35.0
44.0
40.0
47.5
51.5
37.0
37.0
40.0
52.0
47.0
43.5
50.0
41.0
Prob
77%
97%
0%
0%
100%
36%
100%
100%
0%
84%
11%
0%
97%
100%
100%
0%
19%
98%
3%
91%
Table 7a
Likely Voter Cutoff Model
Registered Voters
"Likely Voters"
Pollster
Gallup
Pew Research
CNN/Opinion Research
ABC News/Wash Post
McClatchy/Marist
Newsweek
Associated Press/GfK
FOX News
Reuters/Ipsos
Total
Date
31-Oct
30-Oct
30-Oct
28-Oct
25-Oct
20-Oct
18-Oct
13-Oct
11-Oct
Sample
2027
2373
921
1015
807
848
1338
1200
854
11383
GOP %
48
43
49
45
41
42
46
41
46
44.7%
Dem %
44
44
43
49
47
48
47
39
44
44.7%
Sample
1539
1809
542
786
461
773
846
687
720
8163
GOP %
55
48
52
49
46
45
50
48
48
49.5%
Dem %
40
42
42
44
46
48
43
39
44
42.6%
Turnout
76%
76%
59%
77%
57%
91%
63%
57%
84%
71.7%
GOP %
31%
35%
50%
32%
42%
19%
42%
45%
44%
39.5%
Dem %
69%
65%
50%
68%
58%
81%
58%
55%
56%
60.5%
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