What Won't Happen Between 2010 and 2012

[MineralMan]

Lots of things won't happen, due to yesterday's election. Things are going to slow to a crawl in DC. Most importantly, here are some things that absolutely will not happen:

1. HCR will not be repealed. The Republicans have just one chamber under their control, and Democrats can use the same strategies the GOP used to block any major change such as this.

2. Social Security will not be abolished. Even Republicans have to answer to the voters in 2012.

4. Our two ugly wars will continue to slowly wind down. There will be no escalation, nor will there be a faster end to them.

5. Major economic changes will not happen. In any direction. The economy will struggle along and will probably improve, thanks to the foundation laid by the Obama Administration and Congress. Things will probably be a little better in 2012.

6. The Tea Party will not take over. They are few in number and will be overwhelmed by their stupidity and the morass that is Congress.

7. President Obama will NOT be impeached. The will to do this is miniscule, and led by the Tea Partiers. It will die and could not succeed in any case, since a 2/3 majority of the Senate is required to convict. That will not happen, so the impeachment will not happen. A losing battle is not what the newly Republican House wants.

8. President Obama will veto any drastic measures that somehow make their way through Congress, and those Vetos will not be overturned.

9. DOMA will not be changed. The will to do that was weak before the election and will be weaker after.

10. DADT will end, either through a lame duck action or through the courts. Its time is over.

11. There will be no more states that will OK same-sex marriage, and we may lose a couple that already have. That's a casualty of this election.

12. 2012 will arrive, in its time. What will happen then depends on many things. I have no predictions for it.

13. President Obama will be the Presidential candidate in 2012. He will be re-elected.

14. People on DU will still be arguing the same issues and the Democratic Party will still have a range of people from centrists to almost-socialists.

15. The United States of America will survive and continue along its general path, just as it has for its entire history.

[Drale]

1. Nothing

there wont be anything getting done. Republicans think they have all the power, but Democrats still hold the Senate and the Presidency

[FarPoint]

7. Nice

We need to list our position

[dflprincess]

56. Oh please

the Democrats "held" the Senate the last two years by more than they do now but still the Republicans controlled it.

There are enough Blue Dogs left in there that the Republicans will be getting everything they want and the "new Democrat" in the White House will still yammer about "bipartisanship" and working with Boehner.

The corporations have won and we are screwed.

[muntrv]

2. I'm lookin' forward to seeing the republickers try to govern and show

the people what a bunch of foul ups they are.

[T Wolf]

3. In other words, BUSINESS as usual. Very little "progress" but continuation of the

bad policies of the last five administrations.

The future of the planet (hopefully) does not rely on the US. Let's hope we do not ruin it for the whole planet.

[MineralMan]

9. Yes, pretty much. We're doing the same things, so we should

not expect different results. Big changes are very, very hard to come by in a representative republic. People vote. The population is diverse. The bell curve stays the same. Again, expecting big changes to occur in periods less than a generation long is ignoring the realities of the makeup of this country.

[onehandle]

4. Correct. The only thing that could change some of this is the unemployment rate.

If it is not below 7% by 2012, we are in trouble.

[w4rma]

39. It won't be without policy changes on 'free' trade. And the entire Republican Party is nothing but

'Free' Traitors. So, no unemployment will stay as it is or rise.

[ellenfl]

53. or 'they' are in trouble. i haven't heard anyting but cut taxes

from the other side so you know unemployment will probably be stuck where it is . . . and the voters will get p*ssed at the do nothing congress and vote the newbies out because they did not accomplish anything they promised (sound familiar?). and so it goes. this has got to be the stupidist election i have ever seen. knee jerk opposition with the emphasis on 'jerk'.

ellen fl

[Enrique]

5. Boehner's got a large majority

I think he's going to do some damage. I think the rich will be a lot richer and the poor a lot poorer.

[MineralMan]

13. In one house, he does. It takes two and a Presidential

signature to do serious damage. Congress will continue to stumble along. It seldom does anything else. Inertia and discord set the scope of what Congress can do. That scope is always small, and it's small by design.

[patrice]

38. In Kansas, we saw GLBT in their midst, Boehner will be held hostage.

[rfranklin]

6. I guess I am the one socialist here...

It's sooooo lonely!

[MineralMan]

14. Actually, you're not. Philosophically, I'm a socialist, too.

Philosophically. Realistically, I'm an observer of U.S. history. Socialism isn't the deal here. It won't be, as long as the system operates as it does. Our Constitution pretty much eliminates socialism as a possibility in a nation as diverse as ours.

[rfranklin]

19. Just riffing on the OP's "almost socialists" comment....

I would settle for socialized medicine.

[MineralMan]

22. I'm the OP. "Almost socialists" can fit into the party.

Real socialists don't, very well. It's too frustrating. That's why I used the term that way. A little realism is required for a socialist to actually be a Democrat, since the Democratic party isn't really about socialism.

[RZM]

8. K & R

Though I'm not quite as convinced about DADT. I think there will continue to be dawdling. It will end, but I'm not positive this will happen in the next two years. I hope so, but I'm skeptical. I do think, however, that it will be gone within 4 years.

[FSogol]

10. Aren't you really allowed to put so much truth into a post? K&R n/t

[Spazito]

11. Good OP!

I agree with all your points, they are very realistic.

Recommended.

[Posteritatis]

12. Re: #7...

Is it wrong that I sort of want them to try, knowing they won't have a chance of pulling it off, just so the country can be treated to the spectacle of that level of pettiness and hysterical hyperbole for several months? People spewing conspiracy theories about being a Muslim or a British subject or a commienazi or whatnot in the general populace are one thing, but watching them hurl it about the legislature would be another altogether, and at this point that really is all a lot of them have got.

I mean, it's not like Congress is going to be doing anything else with the Party of No running the House, so they might as well let the herd of loose cannons they're electing give themselves some black eyes.

[MineralMan]

15. Yeah, that sounds good, sort of. But,

it's incredibly divisive and Congress doesn't often do things that divisive. They tried it with Clinton, and it failed badly. It cost a bunch of people their positions, and nothing changed. I believe they may have learned a lesson there.

There may be stirrings, but there will be no action, I think.

[Posteritatis]

28. ..Hasn't Congress been doing nothing but divisive things the last two years? (nt)

[MineralMan]

33. Nah. They haven't gotten much done at all. The divisiveness

is internal, and it's sort of that way by design. The makeup of Congress is designed specifically to prevent major things from passing. All sound and fury, for the most part.

I'm truly amazed that any sort of HCR made it through. That was amazing, even if it didn't satisfy hardly anyone.

[SomeGuyInEagan]

16. "The Republicans have just one chamber under their control ..."

I dunno about that one. "Control" might be generous.

One of the very first votes of the new session has to be to raise the debt limit. Without that, the Congress can't do anything. The Republicans are going to have a hell of a time getting this new group to agree to do that, but it has to be done before anything else can be done.

Boehner's going have have to give some serious committee assignments to these idiots to get them to sign on to voting to raise the debt limit and in doing so, will hurt his power, give the insane some power and create the first political commercials for the 2012 election ("TeaBagger XXX said he'd/she'd cut the spending, but on day one voted to increase the debt ... what a lying sack of shit XXX is.").

I think that unless House Dems - and notice that most of the House Dem losers yesterday were Blue Dogs, not Progressives - that unless the House Dems help the Republicans, that the House will do little except send subpoenas to the White House (they be up nights creating that garbage).

On "Real Time with Bill Mahrer," former President Jimmy Carter said something to the effect that a Republican-held House may help President Obama become a more effective President (though, seriously, a LOT got done in 2008-10 ... I was disappointed on more than one half-measure and certainly mad that the WH and Dems can't spin a message ... but a LOT of good things were passed in 2008-10). Perhaps Carter is right. Maybe this is where Obama kicks it into high gear and the Dems in the Senate and House step up, hearing the thunder of the 2010 mid-terms.

[MineralMan]

24. Pretty good points, there.

There's also that pesky defense appropriations bill waiting. Complete with DADT. That's an immediate issue that has to be solved, and that will occur before the new Congress is in session.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

17. 5 is incorrect

There's no compelling reason to expect improvement and much reason to expect decline with the pugs controlling government spending (which they now do)

[MineralMan]

21. I think it's correct.

We've already seen the beginnings of a recovery. The stock market has recovered much of its deep decline, and does not appear to be in much danger. Job losses have slowed, and I'm seeing improvement in small business' outlook, based on the willingness of businesses to spend on new website development in my area.

We probably have peaked on home foreclosures, and I expect home sales to increase, starting next spring. As an example, the house next door to mine in a blue-collar neighborhood is now undergoing a major rehab after being empty for two years. A new buyer is rehabbing it for resale. It will be on the market at the end of this month. Two other houses nearby on my street recently sold for prices near what they were selling for four years ago. That's an indication of optimism in that marketplace, at least where I am.

Some measures begun at the beginning of Obama's term are finally taking hold, and there is new industrial development due to those measures. Alternative energy, and some other things that were set into motion are now beginning to actually begin.

No, I think that the recovery is on its way and will be self-sustaining, if not rapid. There's still going to be a lot of misery out there for many, but things will improve for many, as well.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

26. I sincerely hope you are right and I am wrong

[MineralMan]

31. I guess only time will settle it. Predictions are pretty

worthless, overall. Reality usually makes some of them wrong. I hope I'm right, too.

[RickFromMN]

18. Not sure I believe President Obama will be re-elected

I expect Republicans to claim they are responsible for everything good that happens in the next two years.

I expect Republicans to claim Democrats are responsible for what's still bad in the next two years.

I expect President Obama will get the blame no matter what he does the next two years.

I can't see Progressive Democrats standing behind President Obama in 2012.

I expect an ugly Democratic Party primary in 2012, and a divided Democratic Party for the general election.

If we think things can't get much worse...unless one of two things happen, wait until 2012.

The two things that might give me hope are as follows:

1) Perhaps President Obama will finally learn how to fight and use the bully pulpit to fight the bullies.
Perhaps he will learn to fight for the credit he deserves.
Perhaps he will convince Progressives that he is worth voting for.

One can argue Progressives will vote for Obama. Where else can we go?

Yes...we will shoot ourselves in the foot. Please understand. It's a question of enthusiasm.

The enthusiasm won't be there. President Obama will not be re-elected, in my opinion.

2) Alternatively, perhaps President Obama will step aside so we can have a united party in 2012.

[racaulk]

20. I'm not sure that I agree with you on point 11.

In Rhode Island, the only thing stopping marriage equality is the current Governor, Don Carcieri. He is virulently anti-gay and unlikely to sign any remotely pro-equality bill that comes to his desk. Governor-elect Lincoln Chafee, on the other hand, has promised as to sign a marriage equality bill should it reach his desk, and it appears that the momentum is there to make it happen in both chambers of the state legislature. In addition, the majority of Rhode Islanders (~60%) support gay marriage. I think marriage equality may happen in Rhode Island prior to the next Presidential election...at least I hope it does.

Also, if the Ninth Circuit Court concludes that the parties arguing in favor of Prop 8 (that is, those that were not named as plaintiffs in the case) do not have the standing to appeal the decision in Perry v. Schwarzenegger, we will see marriage equality returned to California essentially as soon as that court makes the decision to reject appeal.

I think the states that we already have are probably safe. But time will tell, I suppose.

For the rest of your post, I think you're probably spot on. :hi:

[MineralMan]

27. Well, I sure hope you're right on that. I had hopes for Minnesota,

but we now have both state houses in the hands of the Republicans. That's not going to work out well, so it'll probably reverse itself in the next elections for those bodies.

[nadinbrzezinski]

23. Disagree on impeachment

like the rest of the BS hearings... it is theater... that is what they excel at.

This is what they like to do...

[MineralMan]

29. I think it's only a small group of Republicans who want that.

I don't see it happening. Just people saying it should.

[nadinbrzezinski]

32. Daryl Issa is not just any Republican

he already promised a series of bs hearings.

Now they MIGHT succeed in impeachment, good luck with indictment... and truly this is about Watergate... they will not be satisfied UNITL they manage to do this to a Dem... so like clockwork, democrat in the WH... Republican House...

[thereismore]

25. I want to see laws brought to the House floor that would repeal Healthcare, Social Security and

the Dept. of Education. I want to see that. They owe it to their voters, no?

[MineralMan]

34. Oh, they'll be introduced, but won't reach the voting stage.

Lots of things are introduced. Few make it to a vote.

[thereismore]

42. Teabaggers will take it out on them in 2012 for failing to deliver. nt

[MineralMan]

44. Good deal!

[totodeinhere]

30. Here's one more. Extended unemployment benefits will not be renewed. The GOP controlled House will

not allow it.

[MineralMan]

36. I believe you're right about that, and it will be very bad for many.

I'm not at all convinced that another renewal would have happened even if the results of the election were different. That problem, I think, was inevitable, and it's a very bad thing for those affected.

[laughingliberal]

35. "2. Social Security will not be abolished."

What will happen: I'll be waiting until 70 to be able to collect my benefits. Of course, chances are good I won't see 70 but that's really their whole point in this, isn't it?

Nice how the over 65 crowd whose benefits are safe voted overwhelmingly for 'deficit reduction.'

[MineralMan]

37. Well, I'm 65, and I sure as hell didn't vote for it.

Full retirement age for me is 66 under the current schedule, and it's later than that already for my wife, who is 11 years younger than me. The retirement age has been creeping up for a while now. To reverse that is going to be almost impossible. You're certainly right about that. I didn't say that SS would not be changed...just that it wouldn't be abolished. I expect changes.

[laughingliberal]

48. Oh, Whoopee! It won't be abolished! Sorry, if I have to wait until 70, it's the same thing to me.

And I have no reason to listen to any excuses from those whose benefits are 'safe.' If you're over 58, you're 'safe.' Those of us out here with almost 40 years of paying in and under 58, we're fucked.

Exit polling showed the oldsters voted overwhelmingly for the Republicans yesterday. Once again, the baby boomers get screwed by people who have nothing to fear for themselves and some guy on DU tries to sell me on the inevitability of it.

[MineralMan]

51. Again, I did not vote for any Republicans, and I know a lot of

people in my age group who did not, as well. I voted for progressives, as I always do. Everyone I voted for won, too. But, I have just a single vote. I'm not putting a value on any of the things I wrote, positive or negative. They are predictions, not recommendations. First, we have to win. Then we can change things. We did not win, nationally, this time. Now, we have to work towards the next election.

[laughingliberal]

52. 'We' won big in '08. 'We' didn't change anything significantly. 'We' sided with Repukes ...

'We' sided with Repukes on the deficit & brought Alan fucking Simpson back from the dead to head up a commission to gut our social safety net after the Senate defeated the horrible idea.

[Toucano]

40. The sky is falling. The sky is falling. n/t

[MineralMan]

41. Indeed. But then, it always seems to be, doesn't it?

[laughingliberal]

49. Hunger and poverty tend to color our judgement. Hard to see that rainbow when we don't know where...

our next meal is coming from.

[MineralMan]

50. No question about that. Poverty is a horrible thing.

Solving it is, or should be, one of our primary concerns.

[Major Hogwash]

43. Hey, that's a damn good post!! I was thinking the same thing, almost.

They're going to try and make Obama start using a lot of red ink for his VETO stamp, but with the Senate in Democrat's hands, they should be able to prevent any really bad bills from ever reaching his desk.

Let's face it, America is a racist nation.
They have let racists, like Sarah Palin, hold the microphone for the last 3 years and she drowned out the message of hope that Obama was talking about in 2007 when he started his presidential bid.

We have to be careful here how we react because he is the first black president of the United States of America.
We cannot let history record that we acted out of malice to meet those challenges that still face this country today, just because the GOP doesn't believe that filibustering in the Senate for 2 whole years will not be remembered.

It will be.

Our motto for 2012 should be "Remember the filibusters!"
Or how about "Don't let the Republicans force the votes in the Senate to have to be 60 or nothing will be done."
It's a little long for a bumper sticker, but hey, it might fit on all of those limos you see going down the road.

[MineralMan]

45. Thanks! I think many people are thinking the same way.

We need a cooling off period, and then we can go back to work.

[uponit7771]

46. Unrec, you forgot redistricting and KKKons don't care about laws

[MineralMan]

47. It wasn't an all-inclusive list, you know.

But thanks for the reply. The unrecs don't matter. Kicks are good, though, so thanks.

[bvar22]

54. What WILL happen between 2010 and 2012:

*A continued drift to The RIGHT,

*A continued transfer of Wealth to the top 1%,

*The Billionaires will keep their Bush Tax cut,

*The Capital Gains tax will remain unrealistically low,

*"Free Trade" and deregulation (or faux regulation) will increase

*"We'll fix it later" (RE: Healthcare) will become a sick joke (as predicted),

*Working Americans will see a continued reduction in benefits, wages, and purchasing power,

*The RICH will be romanced and coddled while Working Americans will continue to be told they CAN WILL compete with Slave Labor for their jobs,

*RICH War Criminals, War Profiteers, and Wall Street Criminals will continue to get an Executive Free Pass,

*Military Spending will INCREASE,

*No chance for EFCA or Pro-LABOR movement

*GLBT...back under the bus

*Spying on Americans without judicial review, renditions, torture, Patriot Act, pre-emptive arrests of dissenters...expanded and strengthened

Mission Accomplished!

[GeorgeGist]

55. More important ...

is what WILL happen.

[snot]

57. A few things that certainly could happen --

I agree with most of the OP, find it calming, and appreciate it. But I can't refrain from qualifying:

1. HCR will be weakened. Republicans will mount an energetic effort to kill it with a thousand small cuts, and blue dogs will find excuses to compromise; and as complex as the new law is, it won't be hard for them to insert a serious loophole or two.

2. Social Security will be significantly trimmed. Republicans will mount an energetic effort, and blue dogs will find excuses to compromise; and at the minimum, the retirement age will be raised for those not already very near retirement.

4. Our two ugly wars will continue to slowly wind down -- quite possibly in name only. We will continue to maintain presences there very little less expensive in terms of either money or blood.

5. Major economic changes will not happen -- if we're lucky. Our "recovery" sits on the new bubble created by the Fed's massive quantitative easing, and it could easily pop.

6. The Tea Party will not take over. But the oligarchs, aided by the media they control, will continue to improve their ability to distract and deceive large portions of our population. If anything, reality will continue to recede as they increase their control over the internet and it becomes more difficult for people like Assange to give them the slip.

Edited to add: "Yikes. All 95 who pledged to support Net Neutrality lost yesterday" http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x9474677

7. Conservatives' ongoing efforts to decimate public education will continue largely unchecked, because "A modern economic system demands mass production of students who are not educated and have been rendered incapable of thinking."
– U.N.E.F. Strasbourg, On the Poverty of Student Life (1966).

8. Edited to add: and I agree that the tax cuts for the rich will be extended, which means that the lower classes will never recover from the looting suffered during the last few decades.

[Hydra]

58. Hmmm...

1. HCR will not be repealed.

Of course it won't- it's a Republican plan. They were overjoyed that they got everything the could have wanted AND got to vote against it, knowing it would pass

2. Social Security will not be abolished. Even Republicans have to answer to the voters in 2012.

Abolished? No. Chopped into a million bloody pieces or privatized? Count on it. the WH will claim that it's the only smart way to save it.

4. Our two ugly wars will continue to slowly wind down. There will be no escalation, nor will there be a faster end to them.

Nope. Expect a 3rd front in Pakistan or even Iran, and no wind down...just less and less real information about all of it. I'm sure they want to strangle Julian Assange right now.

5. Major economic changes will not happen. In any direction. The economy will struggle along and will probably improve, thanks to the foundation laid by the Obama Administration and Congress. Things will probably be a little better in 2012.

What foundation? That's entirely the problem here- there is no solid foundation/engine in our economy, and no push to fix that. The green revolution was supposed to be the answer, but the DLC decided to give handouts to the too big to pass up(for campaign contributions).

6. The Tea Party will not take over. They are few in number and will be overwhelmed by their stupidity and the morass that is Congress.

Tea party = Highly funded "activists." Expect them to disappear now that the election is over and whatever damage they accomplished is done.

7. President Obama will NOT be impeached. The will to do this is miniscule, and led by the Tea Partiers.

Wrong. The Republicans will accuse him of everything and anything, and will hold impeachments for not eating enough freedom fries. If President Obama is not liking the criticism so far, he's going to hate the next year and a half.

8. President Obama will veto any drastic measures that somehow make their way through Congress, and those Vetos will not be overturned.

Define: "drastic"? Obama has no political capital to lose. He can dismantle SSI and Medicare/Medicaid and no one will so much as lift a finger. Expect all sorts of horrible bills to fly through congress because "He has to."

9. DOMA will not be changed. The will to do that was weak before the election and will be weaker after.

The DOJ will aggressively try to keep this in place. This is where there's real passion coming from the WH.

10. DADT will end, either through a lame duck action or through the courts. Its time is over.

50/50. Turning competent volunteers away from the armed forces when popularity for the wars is tepid, at best, is a boneheaded strategy. Still, passion over reason...

11. There will be no more states that will OK same-sex marriage, and we may lose a couple that already have. That's a casualty of this election.

Hard to say- the States seem to get things right(like trying to stop the mortgage madness over the Feds desires), so maybe the ball will keep rolling. Either that, or back to the dark ages.

12. 2012 will arrive, in its time. What will happen then depends on many things. I have no predictions for it.

You just made one below.

13. President Obama will be the Presidential candidate in 2012. He will be re-elected.

Yes to the first, no to the second. He seems bound and determined to get out ASAP. Unless he decides to go on the offensive in about 5 mins, I predict rollover.

14. People on DU will still be arguing the same issues and the Democratic Party will still have a range of people from centrists to almost-socialists.

We'll always argue the same issues as long as they are relevant, but I foresee a huge shrink in the number of "centerist" democrats posting here. They're not issue voters, they're "winning team" people, and they no longer have anything to gloat about. Hope they enjoyed bringing us here.

15. The United States of America will survive and continue along its general path, just as it has for its entire history.

That issue is rather severely in doubt. The USSR was deemed invincible. No one is invincible.