I think there's a decent chance Obama is not going to run for a second term.

[Poll_Blind]

I'm sure even uttering the uncertainty is likely to outrage more than a few folks but I'm not saying I wouldn't vote for him again. I would.

I have no idea how that would possibly work but it's not like there weren't enough trial balloons about Hillary Clinton taking Biden's spot in 2012. I've been politically aware since about the mid 80's so I'm still a very young pup compared to some of you who have been around much longer. You might have better feelers for this sort of thing, because it's certainly not something I'm used to.

I'm just not seeing the fight in him and more frequently than not I get the vibe he is operating from a "Plan B" fallback position which he didn't prepare for or (obviously) want to be in. And it's wearing on him and I'm not sure much will change that. He seems to indicate he gets charged up by mingling with real America, outside the DC bubble and he's also driven to action (his own words, to the Netroots Gathering earlier this year) by having his feet held to the fire. I don't think he's getting the things he needs or expected, maybe those things weren't even realistic to begin with.

I'm not absolving him of responsibility for his political decisions- they were, after all, his decisions- but the environment in DC is clearly fucking with him.

Back to that "Plan B" fallback position: The Republicans are going to enjoy eating him alive as he tries to negotiate with them. They will trash our government even further and Obama, as he mentions time and time again, will work to find common ground with them.

This sort of thing works when you're dealing with adults but for whatever reason he chooses to believe that somehow the Republicans give anything near as much of a shit about this country as the Democrats do.

That's not going to make the next two years any prettier for him or us.

So that's it. Throw acid in my face now. I'm not saying he shouldn't run or that I wouldn't vote for him if he does. I'm saying there's a chance he's not going to run for re-election and that somehow the party is going to work with that.

PB

[CaliforniaPeggy]

1. I have a feeling you may be right...

No acid from me.

Perhaps he didn't expect just how hard it would be, governing this vast, unruly, restless nation. I thought he had a lot more fight in him...

I will certainly vote for him if he runs again. NO question there.

He needs to stop compromising with the Republicans, and fight them every step of the way. I just don't see that happening.

It's too bad, really...

[Dawgs]

2. Oh shit. Can we just stop this already? He's still the most popular politician - by far.

He was humbled last night and today. That doesn't mean he doesn't have the fight in him. Anyone would act like he did.

:eyes:

[flamingdem]

35. Thanks! Of course what we do and how much we HAVE HIS BACK might matter nt

[Winterblues]

64. LBJ was quite popular as well

LBJ also accomplished major Reforms in Health care and Civil Rights yet he quit..It was just too much for him and the same very well could be the case fro Obama.

[suzie]

71. LBJ was also older and had a long history of severe health problems.

[sharp_stick]

3. If only I could unrec a thread 100 times

we need to be able to start counting them again.

There is no reason for him not to run in 2012, his popularity is hovering around 50% after two years in one of the deepest recessions short of 1929. He's going to be just fine pulling a Clinton and painting the new puke congress as a bunch of obstructionist assholes that have no ideas to put on the table.

People in this country are sick to death of Congress and their inability to do anything productive and are showing that disgust by voting out incumbents. I'll put money on the same thing happening in two years, if the jobs picture improves noticeably, and it better, I'll put money on the Democrats taking back Congress in two years.

I won't throw acid in your face but I will laugh in it.

[BeyondGeography]

4. Man up, Poll_Blind

The 2012 campaign has already started and Obama's the candidate.

[gmoney]

5. If he steps aside, it's conceding defeat...

If he opted not to run again, it would telegraph to the public that Democratic policies and ideals are a failure. I don't think any Democratic candidate could overcome that and win in 2012.

[cynatnite]

6. Too bad we can only unrec once. n/t

[gkhouston]

7. Seems pretty unlikely. n/t

[JNelson6563]

8. Hope springs eternal

I predict many a post to come on DU, I daresay typed with one hand in many cases, making this same prediction.

Julie

[Skinner]

9. I disagree.

He is going to run for a second term. He is going to be the Democratic nominee. And he is going to win the general election.

I think the mistake many people on DU make is that because they "don't see the fight in him" they assume he isn't fighting. His approach is "never let them see you sweat." He sees the path he needs to take to win, and he takes it. That's how he won the 2008 primaries. That's how he won the 2008 general election. That's how he passed health care.

It might not be very satisfying to watch as a hard-core partisan. But it works.

[CaliforniaPeggy]

22. Sorry, Skinner, but I disagree with you.

Obama has capitulated and compromised with the Republicans too many times. On removing the public option, and on DADT, to name just a couple.

How can you call this working? I wanted him to put up a real, visible fight against the Republicans. He didn't. Maybe I'm wrong, but his actions strike me as weak.

:shrug:

[EFerrari]

28. It worked in the campaign because he was always out in public

inviting the voters to be on his side and promising to be on theirs. It looked like a partnership.

Then he gets to Washington and that partnership disappears for two years. The grassroots campaign turns into a top down White House that doesn't find a way to continue its conversation with millions of supporters. If he doesn't seem to sweat, now that looks like a lack of interest.

Obama may well run and win in 2012 but it will be with a fraction of the support his team has wasted, imo.

[SemiCharmedQuark]

36. 200,000 people went to see him in the last 2 mos.

I hate to break this to you, but we are further left than most people. Even Jon Stewart called for compromise and although he claims to be a moderate, he clearly is liberal.

[CaliforniaPeggy]

39. Oh, I know we're more left than most.

Everybody should be over here with us, dammit!

OK, I'm exaggerating. I'd go see him too, if I had the chance. That does NOT mean I approve of how he's governing.

[SemiCharmedQuark]

41. These crowds were clearly supporters. Watch the videos and tell us they dont approve overall

[AnArmyVeteran]

53. A fight would have greatly energized the base and perhaps increased the turnout in the midterms.

Everyone likes to see a visual display of someone going to bat for another. What the electorate saw was silent compromise. People will always support someone who they perceive is fighting for them, and conversely, if they don't they stay at home. When a leader gives-in to the very people who are trying to hurt Americans and our country and then not getting a single vote in return doesn't inspire others to continue to support that person. Those kind of actions rip the heart out of the millions of people who worked tirelessly to get their leaders elected only to see them turn their backs on you. It's not complicated, but for some unknown reason democratic leadership failed to see the ramifications of their actions. For voters to remain loyal to an officeholder, officeholders need to remain loyal to the people who put them in office. Yesterday we saw what happens when leaders thought more about appeasing the republican enemy than doing what was right for the people.

[CaliforniaPeggy]

65. You have said it so much more clearly than I could.

This is exactly right.

Thank you, my dear AnArmyVeteran.

I salute you!

:patriot:

[Naturyl]

62. You don't have to apologize to Skinner for disagreeing with him.

He is the admin of DU, and he does a great job in that role for which everyone thanks him, but he is not God, our ideological leader, or anyone who needs to be apologized to for disagreeing with.

Not trying to single you out, but it just strikes me funny when I see this.

[sandnsea]

75. The Kennedy bill had a public option

It wasn't Republicans that decided to trash that and force a nine month health care fight.

[onenote]

78. delete wrong place

[TornadoTN]

32. It doesn't work when it's beyond the realm of campaigning

Respectfully said, of course. "Never let them see you sweat" must be another name for "Capitulate at every opportunity".

[jgraz]

72. "It might not be very satisfying to watch as a hard-core partisan. But it works"

Didn't we just have an election where it emphatically did NOT work? :shrug:

[JuniperLea]

73. Didn't he do it without negative attack ads?

Seems to me that's what got most of us to really hate those ads! I know here in CA it was part of what gave NutMeg the slip... she was vile!

His hair isn't on fire, so he doesn't care. He's not raving, spitting, crying, and turning colors like John Boehner, so he doesn't care. He's not yelling! Clearly he doesn't care!

Yep. Lot of that going around.

[eleny]

10. I believe that he'll be running again

It's disappointing that he's not showing the passion we know he has.

Today, he doesn't seem to realize that part of his job is bucking up the troops. There are Dems all over the country who took a kick in the teeth yesterday in their states. I think we needed him to come out strong and help people to find confidence for the future in his own sense of confidence.

But I do think he still has personal ambition and a sense of duty to his Party and will run. And regardless of what happened yesterday, I think he'll win reelection. Obama does very well on the stump.

[Champion Jack]

11. I think there's a decent chance that this is the stupidest thread ever

[RickFromMN]

12. I hope you're correct

I vote in the primaries. I won't vote for Obama in the 2012 Democratic Presidential Primary.

I hope we get a better Presidential candidate in the primary.

What will I do if President Obama is our standard bearer in the 2012 general election?

I will hold my nose and vote for him. I am, first, a Democrat.

I won't be voting for him because I have enthusiasm for him.
I will vote for him because I will view him as the lesser of two evils.

Does that mean I think President Obama will win re-election? No, I do not.
President Obama won't be able to fire people up a second time. The enthusiasm will be gone.

If President Obama runs, again, in 2012, I believe he will be our standard bearer.
I believe he will not be re-elected President in 2012.

[Codeine]

16. Welcome to DU.

Even if you are 100% wrong.

[Codeine]

13. Rrrrrrright. nt

[treestar]

14. Unrec'd

This is too dumb for words.

Quit with the "fight" crap - it makes you look like a school kid. The man is President, not a prize fighter.

Such an inadequate metaphor.

[ramapo]

15. Difficult to imagine

Even if he was not thrilled with how the job turned out, it is difficult to see him (or anybody) just walking away. To do so would require a huge amount of something: nerve, ego, zen??

That said, it will be interesting to see how he handles the next few months as that will be telling. We will see if he has a second-term in him.

[arbusto_baboso]

17. And what viable replacement do we have who wouldn't be similarly eaten alive?

Face it, ANY DEM is going to be the target of the right-wing/corporate media slime machine.

[seabeyond]

18. not even.... nt

[Kennah]

19. No reason for Obama to concede defeat and not run in 2012

Lawrence O'Donnell commented last night that Obama remains incredibly popular, and challenged the other hosts for names of someone who can beat him in 2012.

Palin would be DOA, and it might be a replay of Coons/O'Donnell race--although that Tea Hag does scare me.

Mitt Romney's name popped up as a possible, but the Tea Baggers would never stand for him.

Chris Christie was suggested, I think by Eugene Robinson, and O'Donnell said if you offer up a guy who's just taken office a year before, then yer done.

For Obama, I don't see anything remotely close to Viet Nam that led to LBJ not seeking re-election.

[shireen]

20. The only prediction I'll make about Obama ...

is that when he leaves office six years from now, his hair will be all white.

:P

[Jamastiene]

43. The Presidency does age them fast, doesn't it?

I'm thinking his hair will be all white before 2016...at the rate it is going gray now.

[okieinpain]

57. HA, that office has gotten everyone else and it will take it's toll on

him too. man I don't know why everyone is tripping, this is not that big of a problem, bush survived 9/11 and katrina, lied his way into a war, and screwed up the other one. all obama has to do is defend the policies that have been passed, whatever the repugs can do to water down obamacare, hell let them. the next time dems have the house they can pass laws to push it back in the right direction.

all president obama has to do is jobs, jobs, jobs. keep the time table for pulling out of afghanistan, that will help a lot. push for across the board cuts, but protect the cores, the next dem house can turn right around and fix anything the repugs mess with. then all dems have to do is keep the white house, and get a few wins here and there and all of this will just be something for the history books.

[End Of The Road]

21. Statistically not very likely. Rarely happens.

Obama will learn a few things from this, and adjust accordingly. I think his inexperience has cost him, but he's smart and he won't make some of the same mistakes again. I expect his next two years to be stronger and more charismatic than the first two.

He'll run again.

[whatchamacallit]

45. If he moves right his "adjustment" will be fatal. (nt)

[End Of The Road]

55. Totally agree with that!

[quinnox]

23. Its a possibility

It depends on how he does in the next two years and what happens to his popularity. If his popularity plummets to Cheney like levels because the economy continues to stagnate, then I think there is a chance he will step aside in view of the strong likelihood of not winning re-election.

If he actually puts it together in the next two years, becomes a strong president, and the economy gets better than he will run for re-election.

[lamp_shade]

24. YOU WISH (clearly).

[AndrewP]

25. I'm fairly certain he'll run again n/t

[DevonRex]

26. Unrec. I'm sick of all the anti-Obama, anti-Dem shit here today. nt

[TornadoTN]

31. Yeah, the truth hurts when it is laid bare for all to see

Especially after last night. Sacrificing 2010 for his reelection in 2012 was a stunningly brilliant move, don't you think?

[DevonRex]

38. You need a lot more tinfoil and a class in logic. nt

[AnArmyVeteran]

42. Several months ago I wondered if democrats would be deliberately throwing the midterms.

Democrats had an arsenal of weapons they could have used, but instead they choose the equivalent of a BB gun. I thought of the political ramifications of deliberately losing the midterms. By giving republicans the house or senate then democrats could blame the opposition for any and all problems in 2012. But as long as democrats held both branches of government they would continue to be blamed and have a much worse chance of retaining the presidency.

If democrats were even mediocre at messaging they could have savagely attacked republicans for their congressional obstructionism. But democrats seem incapable of crafting a simple, coherent message. Even the dolt-Bush was able to keep his messages extremely simple so even the dumbest person could understand. He was able to take us to unnecessary wars, gut regulations, increase the deficit & debt, and destroy the economy.

But democrats don't seem to be capable of keeping messages simple and communicating with the American people. If they could they could have educated the American people about what they did and are planning to do. But the handwriting was on the wall during the health care reform debates a year ago. The lowly tea baggers had complete command of the national dialogue for six months before a word was said by President Obama. By then, all of the hysterical fear mongering had taken root and the democrats were on the run.

Democratic leaders need to take classes in 'communications 101' if they ever want to win an election again.

[TornadoTN]

44. Check this out.

It's a long article, but well worth reading. It goes over why Organizing for America was being pushed as the way to win in 2010 but when push came to shove, most felt like it was just a way to get the President elected in 2012 at the expense of the 2010 elections.


http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2010/10/the_dncs_risky.php

[AnArmyVeteran]

47. Good read... Thanks.

[DevonRex]

46. That's it, buddy. I'm calling total bullshit on all your anti-Obama rants today.

Obama went to townhalls all across this nation, facing teabaggers who brought GUNS with them. And you have the fucking NERVE to call the man a coward over and over today and now you're saying he didn't say a WORD during that time.

That is fucking bullshit.

[TornadoTN]

48. Yeah, he said a lot and went to a lot of townhalls

But when it came to present Hope, Change, and everything else that he ran on in 2008 and turn it into meaningful action, he took a pass and rolled over for the GOP in some crazy notion that they would work with him. It didn't work and it won't this time.

[Name removed]

49. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[TornadoTN]

52. Wow, a little too literal there aren't ya?

"Hope" and "Change" is his platform, you know the policy initiatives that he proposed and professed during the campaign? Those things have been conveniently abandoned in favor of bowing to Republicans, again, in hopes of appeasing them and playing nice. Sure was a winning strategy this time wasn't it?

[AnArmyVeteran]

82. Link about appeasement... If a person does not know his enemy he's sure to lose to them.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x9480618

[Toucano]

27. There is not a chance of that happening. n/t

[NYC Liberal]

29. His reelection campaign is already forming. He is running.

He will win the nomination with no primary fight.

Seriously, this shit is getting old. It was old back in 2009.

I'm just not seeing the fight in him ... I don't think he's getting the things he needs or expected

Bullshit. Then you've been covering your eyes and ears, because he's been fighting more than ever. And there is a whole litany of accomplishments, a slew of things that he got done.

[Erose999]

33. Is Tim Kaine in charge? nt

[NYC Liberal]

40. Obama is in charge.

Who will be running Feingold's or Grayson's or Kucinich's campaigns?

[AnArmyVeteran]

30. I agree with the OP but looks like most can't accept this idea.

It seems like Obama hasn't wanted to fight/lead for a long time now. Compromising isn't 'leading', especially when it's hurting Americans and damaging our country. Republicans have demonstrated they would rather destroy the country and harm every American if they could profit politically. Obama seems to have rose colored glasses on because he seems incapable of understanding how truly dangerous right wingers are. 

Every republican leader said they will not compromise with democrats or the president at all. But during today's press conference Obama never mentioned that. Why not? If the leaders of the opposition party openly say they refuse to compromise and want to destroy you, why wouldn't a normal person use a national press conference to condemn republican leaders and say that was exactly the reason why our country was almost destroyed under Bush and why republicans want to continue to destroy any chances of making our country better now? The elections weren't necessarily a referendum on what Obama has done, but rather on what he hasn't done mostly because of republican obstructionism. 

The primary reason for lack of improvements in our country is because republicans have voted against everything that could have helped our country. And they also have publicly stated they wanted to destroy the president. I dont get it when Obama says republicans love this country like everyone else when they have been doing everything they can to destroy it. 

If Obama doesn't understand the levels of evil his opponents will go for purely political gain then it's time to start thinking about another democratic presidential candidate who IS capable of seeing how truly evil republican leadership has become. We need a leader who is capable and strong enough to go up against the republicans. Obama is obviously not strong enough to fight for us. He believes compromise is the only way of governing, even when compromising hurts our country and the American people. 

No one can defeat an enemy until they understand just how deadly that enemy can be. We have seen how republicans will do anything to gain control of our government. They are void of any ability to care about the millions of Americans they hurt. All they care about us winning and to hell with the damage they do to our country and our people. 

Obama still believes he can make a pact with the devil through compromise and talking nice. To me that is out of touch and it certainly isn't leadership. 

It's time we start looking for another democratic presidential challenger to run in the 2012 election. Someone with the courage, strength and intelligence to actually lead our country. Someone with enough guts to go up against the thugs on the right. To do what is right often requires confrontation, not constant compromise. Obama has demonstrated he is not capable of confronting those who seek to destroy our country. 

[HuckleB]

80. Most people at DU can see a ridiculous "idea" when it's offered up.

Shocking!

:rofl:

[rug]

34. If he doesn't run, he should go all in now. But from his press conference, he's running again.

[TexasObserver]

37. He'll run in 2012, unless his poll numbers are below 35%.

Ironically, his worst decisions were likely the result of his doing what he thinks is best for 2012, not 2010. He badly misjudged the economy and did almost nothing to actually create jobs. He played ball with the bankers, with Wall Street, with the Defense industry, with the Health Care Industry. He went along with them over and over. He mortgaged his future with them.

When he didn't deliver on his promise of hope and change, the Democratic party elected officials paid the price.

[McCamy Taylor]

50. ROFLMAO

:rofl:

[AtomicKitten]

51. Joe Biden: "I will be Obama's running mate in 2012."

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/10/14/biden-ill-be-obamas-running-mate-in-2012/

[CakeGrrl]

54. Big unrec

People sure have super-high expectations for what this President needs to accomplish and ridiculously low expectations for how he does or should respond.

I only wish we had commentary from the 1994 "Republican Revolution" as a comparison point, so we could see if Bill Clinton got comparable treatment for losing BOTH the House and Senate.

[Nedsdag]

56. TBTH, if I were him, I'd say "F'd this, I am out of here."

F this crap. If the GOP wants to burn down this democracy, then go ahead. Just do this without him.

I cannot say I blame him.

[B Calm]

58. Then why in hell does he think he needs to reach across the aisle?

[Odin2005]

59. He is still popular outside the South.

it is the Southern racist bigots that are dragging his numbers down.

[Naturyl]

60. Well, that would make things easier.

I won't have to be flamed into ash for supporting a primary...

[bdamomma]

61. he'd be best to put one term in, some americans do not

appreciate something good that comes along. this comment is not meant for DU'ers.

[karynnj]

63. There are plenty of signals he will run in 2012 - including asking Bien to run with him again

Obama is clearly working hard every day to try to get closer to the things he wants done. There are no hints that he simply wants to quit.

That you ignore Obama's actions, yet give credence to rumors - possibly generated by some Clinton obsessed people - that have been denied - strains credibility. As to what you are likely implying - Hillary will run, why do you think she would run better against an actual opponent than the President. Being President is an enormous advantage in running - why do you think that a non-incumbent would do better?

[mmonk]

66. I think you may be right.

I think my race in America (white) overall is very racist and why probably all the lies and hate speech worked so well in making them go off the deep end as time passed. After all, the way he governed which in my estimation given the economic circumstances was very center to center right, but they firmly believed he was a socialist. To be that delusional takes a certain amount of irrationality I think may be attributable to racist tendencies or thought. There is no way to govern a people with those attitudes while they are being backed by a political party that pushes it for all the mileage they can get. Until something is done about the corporate media who lie forcefully or boldly such as Fox, or subtle like the rest of the corporate media by staying silent on critical issues of our time to their false equivalencies by those that speak the truth to the liars at Fox and in Congress. Right now, I see NO positives in this country at all and feel completely separated from these people as if to be a different species of life on earth. Anyway, those are my thoughts.

[Starbucks Anarchist]

67. Yes, just because he's not a raving loon, he's going to quit.

:eyes:

[Drunken Irishman]

68. Obama is about the only sane politician left...

And I think Americans will see this in 2012.

[Starbucks Anarchist]

69. That's one reason I like him.

Always calm under pressure. Unfortunately, some people see that as apathy.

[KatyaR]

70. Me, too, sadly.

Who knows what Congress will throw at him in the next year? I'll be surprised if impeachment isn't the first thing thrown on the table.

[MichiganVote]

74. I think there is a chance I could be a billionaire tomorrow..but I wouldn't bet much on it.

[Whisp]

76. in no mood for this particular brand of tripe. unrec.

[HuckleB]

77. Outrage? Try laughter!!!!

:rofl:

[onenote]

79. I'm frequently amazed by how little some folks on a political board seem to know about politics

Is there a "chance" he's won't run? I suppose one answer is that there is a chance of almost anything. But based on what we know now, is there any reason to think he won't be running? Absolutely not.

[ruggerson]

81. Obama is a very ambitious professional politician

Ambitious politicians don't voluntarily decline to run for reelection.

He will run and he will win. The economy will be humming along by then.