I think Murray will win WA Senate race, here is why

[usregimechange]

First, I predicted the CO results correctly the same way:

I think Bennett will win in CO, here is why
http://www.democraticunderground.org/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x9457316

CNN results

Murray (Incumbent)
722,701 50%

Rossi
709,024 50%
65% reported (estimate)


County analysis

Both Republican and Democratic areas are out. Spokane has 42% out and King County (Seattle) has 55% reporting.

Murray got about 89,000 votes out of King county. Assuming the rest of the results from King are at the same spread she can expect to get another 80,000 from there.

Rossi can expect to get 10,000 from Spokane. Maybe 9,000 from Benton co...
9,000 from Yakima.
3,000 from Lewis.
2,000 from Celan.
Probably another 20,000 from the rest of the rural Republican counties.

= 43,000.

Now, King county isn't the only Dem county out. But you can figure there are another 15,000 out there. So here is the math.


The math

95,000 Dem votes
43,000 Rep votes =

Increase for Murray of 52,000 and she is already up by 13,000. =

Senator Murray and 53 Dem seat majority!

[usregimechange]

1. Anyone from WA have feedback?

[suffragette]

6. Please change spelling to Murray

I think they will count carefully and accurately, especially since both sides have lawyers in waiting in case it's close.
And we've been through very close ones here before.

King County had record turnout. They expected record turnout (well, mail-in) of 68%. Newest estimates are at 70%.
http://www.komonews.com/news/local/106582513.html
And there will be plenty of ballots to tally. In King County, election officials now predict voter turnout in the county will reach at least 70 percent when all votes have been tabulated, or roughly 800,000 ballots. So far, the state's most populous county counted 375,000 votes on Election Day, and plan to release about another 45,000 ballot results Wednesday afternoon. County elections director Sherill Huff says it takes a day and a half to process ballots and the country tried to process as many as it could on Tuesday, which resulted in a smaller number that were to be ready on Wednesday evening. They estimate it may take until the end of the week to get the most of the ballots tabulated.

Since yesterday was the deadline for a postmark, this will take awhile to count ballots as they arrive.



Murray will win.

[usregimechange]

9. Fixed, thanks for the local insight

[suffragette]

11. You're welcome and thanks for correcting that

Don't be surprised for this to take time to determine.

And expect Rossi and RNC to try every slimy maneuver he can if it's anywhere near close.


Here, have a cuppa while we wait:

:donut:

[usregimechange]

12. Ha, I'm actualy drinking coffee right now, results are trickling in 72% now

[lumberjack_jeff]

2. She's up 31,000 votes.

http://vote.wa.gov/Elections/WEI/Results.aspx?RaceTypeCode=O&JurisdictionTypeID=1&ElectionID=37&ViewMode=Results

But Rossi isn't the conceding type. :eyes:

[usregimechange]

5. King must have added more results, Rossi areas may not have added yet

[usregimechange]

8. That source doesn't list the % of results in that I can see...

[Kennah]

13. Try the Voter Turnout tab

http://vote.wa.gov/Elections/WEI/VoterTurnout.aspx?ElectionID=37

[Yeshuah Ben Joseph]

3. You mean 52?

Murray will win. And Bernie Sanders is a reliable vote. But I wouldn't depend on Lieberdouche this time. In fact I wouldn't be surprised if Bitch McChinless and some big corporate donors aren't knocking on the mansions of Nelson, Landrieu, Baucus, etc. in an attempt to get three or 4 of them to officially flip over and let the letter after their name finally match their votes.

[usregimechange]

4. Well we could count 50 by that method subtracting Nelson and Manchin

[Yeshuah Ben Joseph]

7. Yeah, Manchin is horrible

I knew that whomever took Byrd's seat would be a serious step down, but this hillbilly is exceeding My expectations. :puke:

[BlueDemKev]

15. Would you have preferred Raese?

Joe Manchin was the ONLY Democrat who could have won in West Virginia this year. Be thankful he ran and that the Democrats still control the Senate as a result.

[usregimechange]

10. More votes just came in now 70% in state wide, Murray increases lead!

[suffragette]

14. Here's a link to the Slog

The Stranger's blog - a Seattle Alt weekly.
They're posting timely updates on this race and other races.