11/01 Charnin Midterms: Pollsters & Pundits are Paid to Project the Recorded Vote– Not the True Vote

[tiptoe]

Richard Charnin’s 2010 Midterm House and Senate Forecast Models: RV/LV Polls and Election Fraud    bit.ly/9B1nts

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)         source: http://richardcharnin.com/2010ElectionForecastModels.htm

Nov 1, 2010

Pollsters and Pundits are Paid to Project the Recorded Vote – Not the True Vote    bit.ly/cBX9eW

Mainstream media pollsters and pundits and liberal websites dare not mention the F-word. But why should they when only a few Democratic politicians will even discuss election fraud and must realize that votes are always miscounted. But very few are aware just how massive the theft was in 2004. They are quick to concede without calling for recounts. Al Franken was an exception in 2008 but in 2004 he was dismissive of analysts who pointed to exit polls as indicators.

Election activists have been trying for ten years to get the mainstream media to talk about the stolen elections. The media would rather focus on bogus GOP claims of non-existent Acorn "voter fraud".

Pollsters and media pundits are paid to project the official recorded vote. By utilizing LV polls, they anticipate the election fraud they know is coming; the LV polls are a proxy for the recorded vote-count. One would expect election forecasters to project both the recorded and True vote — but they dare not mention the fraud factor. They ignore the fact that since the 2000 election, RV projections have closely matched the unadjusted exit polls (i.e. the True Vote). In the 2006 midterms and 2008 presidential elections, RV projections gave the Democrats a 7% higher margin than the corresponding final LVs.

In 2010, it’s still the same old story. We can expect the average LV projection to once again closely match the recorded vote.

In 2006, before the National Exit Poll was adjusted, the Democrats had a 56.4%. two-party share (13,251, Col 24•7470), matching the pre-election RV trend.
But the share was eventually 'forced' to match a 53% recorded vote-count share in the Final NEP (13,251).**

In 2008 final pre-election RV polls indicated that Obama would win by 12%; the LV polls projected a 7% margin. But unadjusted and preliminary exit poll data has not and will not be made available. That would be nice. But thank goodness for the Final NEP. It’s another in a long line of Smoking Guns. When the Final’s impossible number of returning Bush and third-party phantom voters are replaced by a feasible mix (as it was in 2004), the True Vote analysis indicates that Obama had a 57-58% share and won by 22 million votes. The True Vote landslide was based on the same NEP vote shares that were necessary to match the recorded vote count. But who is to say that the NEP vote shares were not adjusted (along with the returning voter mix) as well? After all, that is what happened in 2004.

The key question is: Will Democratic voter turnout overcome the systemic fraud component?

**NOTE: The 2006 unadjusted national exit poll also shows 48.4% of 6113 return-voters indicated "Bush" when polled for their vote in 2004 (Col 55•2,957).

Vote'04
Kerry
Bush
Other

2006 Unadj
47.33%
48.37%
4.30%

2004 Prelim
50.78%
48.22%
1%

2004 Final
48%
51%
1%

 

Matching 2004 near exactly, the 2006 unadjusted exit poll Bush share is yet another independent confirmation of the 2004 Preliminary NEP vote-share and, thereby, further indication the forced-match basis for the '04 Final NEP (51%-Bush) was bogus, i.e., the 2004 recorded vote count was fraudulent. With Bush share unwavering, the impossible 4.3% "Other" implies returning-Kerry voters near-wholly comprise the 3.3% share-difference with 2004, protesting, perhaps, their party's early concession, and with relatively few, if any, identifying with the "winner". Any "GOP" 'bandwagon effect' in 2006 is insignificant, if not entirely absent.
Two years post-election, the unadjusted Preliminary national exit poll shares for 2008 remain suppressed by the consortium of news outlets Fox, CNN, AP, ABC, CBS and NBC.

Table 9

Pollster Averages

 

POLL AVERAGE

GOP

 

 PROJECTED 2-PARTY SHARE      GOP

 

GOP

 

GOP

Polling Firm
Rasmussen Reports (LV)
Gallup
FOX News
CNN/Opinion Research
PPP (D)

Democracy Corps (D)
ABC News/Wash Post
Ipsos/McClatchy
Quinnipiac
Pew Research

USA Today/Gallup
Newsweek
Reuters/Ipsos
GWU/Battleground
Time

McLaughlin & Associates (R)
Associated Press/GfK
POS (R)
Bloomberg
National Journal/FD

Washington Post
Zogby
NPR
McClatchy/Marist
CBS News/NY Times

 Non-Rasmussen 

Count
41
41
17
13
8

9
9
4
4
8

3
5
5
4
2

2
4
2
3
1

1
2
1
3
4

156

Sample
3500
1662
915
841
784

861
774
913
1977
na

970
857
865
1000
915

1000
769
850
865
1200

na
2069
800
694
na

1046

MoE
1.7%
2.4%
3.2%
3.4%
3.5%

3.3%
3.5%
3.2%
2.2%
3.0%

3.1%
3.3%
3.3%
3.1%
3.2%

3.1%
3.5%
3.4%
3.3%
2.8%

3.0%
2.2%
3.5%
3.7%
3.0%

3.0%

GOP
45.4
47.3
43.7
49.2
44.3

46.8
47.0
43.5
41.3
45.3

46.0
43.6
46.2
44.0
42.5

42.0
49.5
43.5
45.0
35.0

44.0
47.5
44.0
44.7
44.8

45.8

Dem
37.2
44.5
38.5
45.0
42.5

44.1
45.3
44.8
39.0
43.6

45.3
46.8
44.6
41.3
40.0

36.0
44.5
40.5
41.3
39.0

48.0
43.5
39.0
46.0
41.0

43.2

Spread
  8.1  
  2.8  
5.2
4.2
1.8

2.7
1.7
(1.3)
2.3
1.6

0.7
(3.2)
1.6
2.8
2.5

6.0
5.0
3.0
3.7
(4.0)

(4.0)
4.0
5.0
(1.3)
3.8

  2.6  

GOP
54.1
51.4
52.6
52.1
50.9

51.3
50.8
49.4
51.1
50.8

50.3
48.4
50.8
51.4
51.3

53.0
52.5
51.5
51.8
48.0

48.0
52.0
52.5
49.3
51.9

51.3

Dem
45.9
48.6
47.4
47.9
49.1

48.7
49.2
50.6
48.9
49.2

49.7
51.6
49.2
48.6
48.8

47.0
47.5
48.5
48.2
52.0

52.0
48.0
47.5
50.7
48.1

48.7

Margin

8.1
2.8
5.2
4.2
1.8

2.7
1.7
(1.3)
2.3
1.6

0.7
(3.2)
1.6
2.8
2.5

6.0
5.0
3.0
3.7
(4.0)

(4.0)
4.0
5.0
(1.3)
3.8

2.6

Seats
237
225
231
229
223

225
223
217
224
223

221
212
223
225
225

232
230
226
227
211

211
228
230
216
228

225

WinProb
100%
87%
94%
89%
69%

78%
68%
35%
84%
70%

58%
17%
68%
81%
78%

97%
92%
81%
86%
8%

10%
97%
92%
36%
89%

78%

[tiptoe]

1. What the pundits and pollsters won't tell you:

http://richardcharnin.com/2010MediaPollstersSay.htm