If this election sucks, here's a SECOND independent confirmation the 2004 vote count was fraudulent

[tiptoe]

#2 is the recently uncovered info. Check out the data yourself, link provided.

1) The 2004 respectively-aggregated RV & LV-subsample final polls of CBS+Gallup+ABC+FOX+Pew give independent confirmation to the Preliminary exit poll of 2004 (Kerry, 51-48%, 1% MoE), not to the Final that was "forced" to match the recorded vote-count (Bush 51-48% and secret).


2) The 2006 unadjusted national exit poll additionally shows 48% of 6113 return-voters indicated "Bush" when polled for their vote in 2004 (Col 55•2,957).

Vote'04
Kerry
Bush
Other

2006 Unadj
47.33%
48.37%
4.30%

2004 Prelim
50.78%
48.22%
1%

2004 Final
48%
51%
1%

 

Matching near exactly, the 2006 unadjusted exit poll Bush share is yet another independent confirmation of the 2004 Preliminary NEP vote-share and, thereby, further indication the forced-match basis for the '04 Final NEP (51%-Bush) was bogus, i.e., the 2004 recorded vote count was fraudulent. With Bush share unwavering, the impossible 4.3% "Other" implies returning-Kerry voters near-wholly comprise the 3.3% share-difference with 2004, with relatively few, if any, identifying with the "winner". Any "GOP" 'bandwagon effect' in 2006 is insignificant, if not entirely absent.

3) For 2008, the equivalent unadjusted Preliminary national exit poll shares were unreleased by the consortium of news outlets Fox, CNN, AP, ABC, CBS and NBC. Two years post-election, the 51 unadjusted state and 3 un-forced preliminary-national exit polls remain suppressed. Could it have something to do with cover-up of Obama's TRUE margin of victory, since the 2004 and 2006 un-forced exit polls expose Bush's fraudulent victory?

Ya think the mainstream media consortium that met secretly last night in New York will deign to release the 51 unadjusted state exit polls?

 

11/01 Charnin Midterms Model: Undecided Voters, Turnout and Final Exit Polls

11/01 Charnin Midterms Model: The Likely Voter Cutoff Model (LVCM)

11/01 Charnin Midterms Model: Pollsters and Pundits are Paid to Project the Recorded Vote – Not the True Vote

11/01 Charnin Midterms Model: Dems lead Generic RV polls (Pew, ABC, CBS, McClatchy, Newsweek, NBC)

11/01 Charnin Midterms Model: Dems keep Senate 50-48 (53-45 before vote miscounts)

11/01 Charnin Midterms Model: The Fraud Component

10/31 Charnin Midterms Forecast: LV poll model matches Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, but...

 

 

[tritsofme]

1. Are you 99.989245212% sure about that?

[tiptoe]

3. The data is straight from the exit pollster of FOX,CNN,AP,CBS,NBC,ABC . Ask him (or them) nt

[applegrove]

2. Karl Rove and his cronies got conservatives not to disclose their info to pollsters

and so the exit polls gave the win to Kerry by 2PM, keeping harried democrats from going to the polls at the end of the day.

[glitch]

4. Curious -- What was his motivation for that? nt

[applegrove]

6. To supress the vote of the democrats coming home from work and having to get their kids dinner (the

democrats make up the majority of the end of day voters)before they vote. To make them think Kerry had already won (which the early exit polls did go viral with Kerry said to be the winner by 2PM) so they could relax and not vote.

Makes sense doesn't it? Faulty exit polls followed Rove from Texas too.

[glitch]

16. That makes sense. nt

[tiptoe]

20. Sarcasm? Don't be fooled by the Right Wing SPIN that goes on at DU. See the FACTS, #17, and #19. nt

[glitch]

23. Not sarcasm. nt

[tiptoe]

8. '04 "rBr" was debunked + the exit pollster gave tons MORE evidence of GOP *systemic* election fraud

If you unreservedly respect the recorded vote-count -- like Nate Silver seems to, for him to use it as a standard to rate pollster prediction reliability -- have a look at 238 elections, 1988-2004, state exit poll margin vs vote-count margin. No math models or assumptions are involved, merely simple subtraction and display of exit-pollster and official vote-count data across five election cycles (the un-forced exit poll results from 2008 are still being suppressed by FoxNews et al...two friggin years after the election. What are they hiding?):

"It's not the exit polls, morans...It's the vote-count, stupid."

For the curious among DUers and visiting morans, have a look at this:
http://www.richardcharnin.com/LandslideDenied2008Rerun2006.htm

...and the full story on the Kerry landslide that was denied by enemies of Democracy in America:
http://richardcharnin.com/FurtherConfirmationOfaKerryLandslide.htm

Susan Eisenhower de-gistered as "Republican" in 2008...as did 344,000 others from just 29 states reporting. She even supported Obama. How many Congressmen were "elected" fraudulently in yesterday?

 

11/01 Charnin Midterms Model: Undecided Voters, Turnout and Final Exit Polls

11/01 Charnin Midterms Model: The Likely Voter Cutoff Model (LVCM)

11/01 Charnin Midterms Model: Pollsters and Pundits are Paid to Project the Recorded Vote – Not the True Vote

11/01 Charnin Midterms Model: Dems lead Generic RV polls (Pew, ABC, CBS, McClatchy, Newsweek, NBC)

11/01 Charnin Midterms Model: Dems keep Senate 50-48 (53-45 before vote miscounts)

11/01 Charnin Midterms Model: The Fraud Component

Another Independent Confirmation of a Fraudulent 2004 recorded vote count

10/31 Charnin Midterms Forecast: LV poll model matches Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, but...

 

[tiptoe]

17. Kerry led the THREE Prelim nat'l exit polls throughout election day, released 3:59p,7:33p & 12:22a

The 12:22am poll was delayed, due a "computer glitch".

Throughout the days pollings of 8349, 11027 and 13046 exiting voters, Kerry led Bush 51 - 48%.

The third Prelim exit poll (13,047) had a margin of error of just 0.86%, and it was a random sampling of voters.

At 1:25pm the *Final* exit poll (13,660 respondents...yes, the very same 12:22am 1% MoE sample plus 613 more added) showed Kerry trailing 48 - 51% (!).

All *Final* "exit polls" are not exit polls at all. Rather, the *Final* national exit poll is a "forcing" of the 3rd Preliminary poll's numbers -- i.e., tinkerings with the demographic weights and shares of 13,047 random-selected voters in their answers to a number of categorical questions -- in order to make a match with the vote-share of the recorded vote count. That is, physical "adjustments" are made to each and every categorical question's measured weights and shares in the 3rd Preliminary poll until, arithmetically, each and every category's bottomline vote-share numbers -- which left un-forced showed Kerry leading 51-48% througout election day -- were turned around and ended up matching the 48-51 recorded vote count (watched over by the self-annointed likes of the King Karetaker of the Kount, interviewed 16 months prior the election, in the company of President Fraud himself, GW Bush). Detailed, highlighted examples of the "forcing" of the Prelim NEP category numbers to the fraudulent Final NEP numbers can be seen here. You can see all three Prelim exit poll data as well as the contaminated "forced" Final exit poll results lined up here, with timestamps and respondent totals included. Again, the 3rd, 12:22am Prelim poll represents a random sample of voters -- Republicans, Democrats, Independents et al -- with a margin of error of less than 1%. It's existence is only known by way of its Washington Post publication in 2004. By clicking the link for "13047" you'll see the full WaPo publication of the 12:22am exit poll results, as well as analyst Charnin's explanation and demonstration how the bottomline vote share is calculated from the displayed weights and shares within the gender category, plus his prediction that the truly unique WaPo publication will become a Historic Document.

There are numerous confirmations that the Preliminary NEP vote shares -- and NOT the Final NEP abomination of the standard "forced match" to the vote-count -- are closer to the True Vote share than the Final. I say "closer to the truth" because the 3rd Preliminary exit poll does reflect a little of the vote count data being factored into it.

Two INDEPENDENT confirmations of the Preliminary Bush 48% are provided in the OP, one of which was in the 2006 unadjusted Final Exit Poll!

There are also 51 state exit poll results provided by the Exit Pollster in his standard follow-up Evaluation Report of January 19, 2005 that analyst Charnin aggregated, making yet another "national" measure of Election 2004 that showed Kerry won 52% to 47%. The latter aggregation of individual state polls comprised a total sample of 114,000+ voters and confirmed the 12:22am Preliminary results and certainly did NOT confirm the Final so-called "exit poll" abomination for purposes of matching the sum of the recorded vote-counts from 50 states +DC.

Applegrove is feeding you "GOP" spin swill. Even Susan Eisenhower rejected that "hijacked GOP" in 2008 and supported Obama. 344,000 known other Republicans joined her between 2006 and 2008 in de-registering from the GOP.

In 2008, corporate heads of the political media at news outlets FOX,CNN,AP,ABC,NBC and CBS totally SUPPRESSED the release of the exit pollster's evaluation report with the unadjusted 51 state exit polls and un-contaminated, un-forced Preliminary natinal; exit polls. That is s COVER UP of ELECTION FRAUD and must be addressed.

 

[dems_rightnow]

19. How did Rove...

.... manage to disseminate this message to 100 million people without us getting evidence of it?

[applegrove]

24. He could have asked the churches, en mass, to bus people into the polls. With the exit pollsters

having to stand 100 feet from the polls and with bus pick up right at the door it could have happened that way. Or he simply could have spread rumours about exit pollsters to gop voters that were unfavourable and would make 1/2 of 1% of voters not respond to exit pollsters. That would be all it would take. Something simple like that. Don't forget the investigation into the exit poll fiasco had the republicans as "reluctant responders". So there had to be proof of that. I don't know what the proof is for reluctant responders but it has to be out there otherwise the statistician wouldn't have come to that conclusion.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

5. Thanks Tiptoe....I've been thinking a lot about those times today

and thinking about Howard Dean who after 2004 said - we have GOT to take the governorships so we can protect the election process. And look what happened (not by chance, in my eyes) yesterday. Man I miss HD

Thank you so much for keeping this all alive.

I will never forget how close we were to solving the rip off in Florida...it was gore margin plus x... can't think of her name but it was during that time we all stayed up til all hours on here, right after kerry lost. she was a statistician...and she thought she was very very close to coming up with the formula - analyzing fl precincts...then the next day, I swear, she disappeared on these boards. I posted several times asking everyone about her - nothing.

what I also thought would be a good project would be to get all those precinct stats on a dvd and publish a book -- the mystery of 2004 FL and include the dvds with the book. then send it to every college stat dept in the country and let them take a stab at it - discovering the pattern.

[tiptoe]

10. Proof that Gore won FLORIDA by OVER 46,000 VOTES

"...never forget how close we were to solving the rip off in Florida...it was gore margin plus x..."

Have a look:

Gore Won Florida by Over 46,000 Votes

[Rex]

7. After the year 2000...

I will never feel totally secure in my rights as an American citizen, which goes double for voting. Never really had any doubt, until 2000. Now that is all I have. Oh and a machine that says, "THANKS FOR VOTING (giggles)!"

[Corey_Baker08]

9. With The Victory of Republican Jon Husted 4 Ohio's SOS -Ohio 2012 Will Be a Repeat of Ohio 2004!

Husted has already vowed to end early voting, he supports electronic voting machines with no paper trail, him and the new Repub Governor will redistrict the state to favor Republicans, after last night we have went back 6 years.

[tiptoe]

11. How bad was Ohio 6 years ago, when Susan Eisenhower was still a Repub? Here's what it looked like:

NATIONAL

 
 

2000 Recorded Vote Count
2000 Recorded Share
2004 Recorded Vote Count
2004 Recorded Share

2004 Pre-election Polls

2004 Projections

2000 Votes Cast
95% Alive
98% Turnout
Ret Nader/Oth (65K-13B)
DidNotVote 2k (59K-39B)
2004 True Vote Count

2004 True Vote Share

2004 State Exit Poll

2004 Margin Deviations

(Exit Poll) - (True Vote)

Margins Δ

(Exit Poll) - (Projection)

Margins Δ

(Exit Poll) - (Recorded)

WPE

 

Recorded Vote Margin

Dem SWING (2004−2000)

% 16-DRE 12-OpSc 72-Pnch

Ohio

Dem
2186
46.5%
2741
48.9%

50.0%

51.4%

2274
2161
2118
102
896
3115
52.1%

54.0%

Bush
2351
50.0%
2860
51.1%

47.0%

47.5%

2381
2262
2216
20
562
2799
46.8%

45.5%

Other
168
3.6%
27
 0.5%

1.1%
1.1%

168
159
156
34
30
64
1.1%

 0.5%
 

1.9%

-1.3%

 

3.2%

2.6%

-2.0%

 

4.5%

5.1%

-5.6%

 

10.6%

 

+ 2.5%

+ 1.1%

+ 1.4%

[apocalypsehow]

12. LOL. UnRec. n/t.

[liberalla]

13. I've thought about the rigged vote a lot recently, and not just 2004.

I tend to agree with others that the Repubs weren't prepared for the huge 2008 turnout for Obama (the true extent of which we'll never know, but much larger than the reported count.) They were shifting numbers, (stealing votes), padding the Repub count in an effort to come out ahead. They just didn't steal *enough* votes. Their calculations were wrong.

The Republicans don't believe in majority rule when Democrats are ahead. Just like in the Senate (where 60% is required to prevail), the Republicans are requiring a larger percentage of the US voting population to vote Democratic, in order for us to win.

I wonder what the real numbers are (before the vote count 'readjustments'.)

[tiptoe]

15. Census data for 2008, 2004, 2000, 1996

Table 2. Reported Rates of Voting and Registration 2008

( 0.3% MoE )

[JTFrog]

14. I had no way of knowing who my vote was actually cast for in the end.

Just a little box with some red lights that flash and say ok, thanks for playing....

No receipt. No nothing. Absolutely hilarious for standing in line for an hour to hover there when I'm done and ask, ok, so how do I know my vote was tallied as cast? The screen was full of blanks and just waiting for the next person.

So how's that Democracy thing working out for us?

[Divine Discontent]

18. "So how's that Democracy thing working out for us?"

exactly..

I told the woman at the precinct, I have a hard time believing my vote in FL is fairly counted, since we cannot go and verify our voter #, and see the vote, and that we all can see if our vote was switched in the final count. She laughed.

[Rage for Order]

21. So why hold national elections?

Why don't we have a representative sample of citizens vote and if the result is outside of the margin of error we call the race? Seems easier and more cost effective than trying to get tens of millions of people to the polls every couple of years.

:shrug:

[tiptoe]

22. Wrong conclusion. America's Democracy shouldn't be vulnerable to suppression and vote switching. nt