2012 Senate Races: 25 Democrats up and 10 Republicans... How do we hold on to the Senate?

[BrentWil]

In 2012, there are 25 Democrats up.



We are playing defense in alot of places. Who is the most in danger? Which Republicans can we pick off? Is there a path for the GOP to gain 60 Senate seats? If the GOP get the Presidency and 60 Senate seats in 2012, we are fucked. Of course the main effort is keeping a Democrat in the White House, but this is something we need to think about.

[Xipe Totec]

1. Stand and deliver nt

[SugarShack]

16. Ben Nelson up? Four dems DID vote against the jobs bill with Leiberman, to stop outsourcing

If any of the four are up....it will be hard. Ben Nelson, Max Baucus, Mark Warner!! and can't remember the fourth, along with Lieberman.

[Ken Burch]

2. We'll get Teddy's seat back, and put a Real Dem in HolyWarJoe's

that helps.

Otherwise, it'll be tough.

Another reason for Harry to change the rules now to get rid of the filibuster.

[BrentWil]

3. Wouldn't it be an argument against that?

The GOP could have control of the Senate after 2012.

[Ken Burch]

4. No. The more good stuff we got passed through the Senate

(even if it died in the Boehnerhaus)

The stronger the case we could make that the 'Pugs SHOULDN'T get the Senate.

Our Senate leaders never have the guts to use the filibuster anyway.

[provis99]

5. we don't. The Senate is gone in 2012.

things are looking bad over the next 2-6 years...

[BrentWil]

6. I don't agree with that...

And if true, we have to keep them away from 60 seats.

[provis99]

9. well, my predictions were exactly right this election.

Plenty of people on DU didn't think we were going to lose the House in 2010; I wrote we'd lose 50-60 seats and lose about 6 seats in the Senate. The regression models I've run have been spot on for the past 16 years.

[BrentWil]

17. Well

For one, other variables can change. (i.e. the Economy) Second, regression models can only be used in social science to develop probability, not a determinate effect. There is always deviation in some cases.

[Telly Savalas]

26. Were those predictions from the second week of Nov 2008?

A lot can happen in two years.

While it's probably the case that none of the red states will flip, the degree to which Democratic seats are vulnerable can fluctuate a lot over the course of the next 24 months. It's dependent on a lot of unknowns, among them the state of the economy in two years and the quality of the GOP contenders.

[regnaD kciN]

7. As with everything else, it depends on the economy...

If we see a noticeable improvement, we'll suddenly be the party that "turned it around," and will pick up a lot of support -- not only in holding Senate seats, but in possibly regaining the House. If we're still at 9.6% unemployment, we're pretty much dead in the water. We should be seeing some improvement by then -- the question is, how much is enough?

One thing to keep in mind, though -- the electorate for a presidential year is very different than it is for a midterm. Voters in the latter are usually slanted toward those who are pissed-off because the other party is in power. For example, an exit poll showed that the electorate this time around was just about evenly split between those who voted for Obama and McCain last time around, while Obama had beaten McCain 53% to 47% back then. More Democrats, moderates, and young people will show up in 2012, just because there's a presidential election that year. (Plus, to be utterly crass about it, a large percentage of the voters this time around were seniors, and a number of them won't be around to vote two years from now.) No matter what, we won't get the same electorate we had on Tuesday.

[BrentWil]

18. I am not so sure about the House

I think if you see improvement, it helps any incumbents. If it stays down, we might be screwed.

[AlinPA]

8. 2.5 to 1 disadvantage. We will have a big hill to climb. They will have 10's of billions,

not millions on their side with cable TV and the network brainwashing more as America watches Dancing With The Stars.

[dsc]

10. Ok lets take a look

First we have safe seats in CA, HI, NY, RI, NJ, WV, VT, and FL if Nelson runs. We have likely pick ups in MA and NV if Ensign runs. We have solid seats in MN, MD, PA, MI, WI, DE, and WA assuming all those incumbents run. ND is safe if incumbent runs, gone if he doesn't. I would rate the rest of the seats lean dem MT, VA, MO, and NM. If we keep our losses to those four and pick up the two we will lose two seats and keep the majority. If we get lucky and win ME due to tea bagger primary producing a nut job candidate or save MO the same way we could be even or gain a seat.

[BrentWil]

19. I think that might be optimistic

I don't think you can call FL and WV safe, for example.

[dsc]

24. Rockefeller is well financed and popular

I don't see him losing, even in WV. Nelson is an astronaut hero and insanely popular in FL. In a Presidential year I think he wins.

[bigtree]

23. good summary

. . . folks aren't mentioning the safe seats when they repeat this opportune analysis promoted by NPR this morning.

[Ken Burch]

11. I'd target Maine, Nevada, Massachusetts, and possibly Texas and Arizona

Increases in Latino voter registration could help us in the last two, Maine is a state where we can hit either whichever "moderate" is running for refusing to be "bipartisan"(that's the one place that word might actually help us).

And I'd take a look at Indiana if Lugar happens to retire. That's now a swing state, and given 2008 we MIGHT have a shot there with a half decent candidate(think a Birch Bayh-type, not Evan).

[Major Hogwash]

12. By reaching across the aisle.

Oh muh gawd!!

Tester is going to need a lot of help in Montana.
Over the next 20 months, we need to create more jobs and it will take care of itself.
Maybe.

Or, we could just cling to our guns and bibles.

Hahaha!!

[BrentWil]

20. That one will be extremely tough NT

[elocs]

13. Democrats are always on the defensive.

They allow the right to define the terms and the debate and so Dems are on their heels. Republican realize that perception is everything, but Democrats do not seem to be able to grasp that concept. They mistakenly believe that reason and facts and being rational will always convince people. Unfortunately, that is not the case.

So, in 2008 Republicans did not have the Presidency and neither house of Congress with Dems almost having 60 votes in the Senate and were they fucked (even though there was a lot of dancing around here like they were finished)? Nope. Such is life. If 2012 goes badly, then Democrats will just have to figure it out like Republicans did.

[jmowreader]

14. The question is really, "how do the Republicans keep the House?"

I think what the voters really said was, "Fix this economy. Now."

The Republicans' problem is, they're the ones who broke it in the first place, and the things they are going to do to attempt to fix it--repealing regulations, giving healthcare back to the healthcare companies, cutting taxes and cutting spending plus creating tax breaks for certain business decisions like offshoring--are the exact things that broke the economy in the first place.

When the economy is actually WORSE in two years, the Democrats will pick up about 70 seats--all the seats the Repukes took from us Tuesday, plus ten more just for good measure--and will receive the same request the Republicans are getting: Fix this economy. Now.

Our problem will be, the Republicans will stand in the way of anything the Democrats attempt to do in 2013-2014, so the Republicans will get it back in the 2014 election. And we'll get it back in 2016 and so on and so forth.

Until a trusted leader finally stands up and says "tax cuts, spending cuts, offshoring and deregulation are not the solutions to our problem, they are the problem," we'll keep spiraling down.

[BrentWil]

21. I think the Democrats have the Senate and the White House

We will take the blame.. like it our not.

[SoCalDem]

15. '14 is even uglier

[USArmyParatrooper]

22. #1: Get the economy moving again.

#2: Get the economy moving again.

[Alexander]

25. A lot of it depends on who retires and who doesn't.

We'll probably take Massachusetts, and elect Chris Murphy or one of the other House Democrats to Lieberman's seat whether or not he retires.

Ensign's seat is winnable if he stays in the race and a decent Democrat runs against him.

Ben Nelson's seat is probably lost whether or not he retires or gets primaried.

Olympia Snowe could very well get primaried by a teabagger. If a teabagger wins, we can take it. If not, it's out of reach.

Jon Kyl could've lost in AZ in '06 had a decent candidate been nominated, but unless one is in 2012 like Giffords, Grijalva, or maybe Goddard, it's probably out of reach.

Corker barely won last time, his seat could be winnable if Phil Bredesen or someone like that runs. If not, we'll probably lose it.

Byron Dorgan's seat is safe unless he retires, in which case it's lost.

If Lugar retires, we have an outside chance of winning Indiana. If not, we don't.

Since this will be a presidential election year also, a lot of seats that might normally be in danger for us probably won't be, like Virginia, Missouri, Wisconsin, Montana and Ohio. No matter who the right wing nominates to run against Obama, he'll still probably win.

All in all, it's hard to see a scenario where the Senate changes by more than a couple of seats either way. Since it's almost a guarantee we'll replace Lieberman with a real Democrat, I'd say it looks likely we keep the Senate even if it's by the barest of margins.

[FrenchieCat]

27. By saying negative things as often as possible about the President,

whether by speculation or any other means.
and then we call the Dems wimps every other day....
while the GOP and its media is calling them that every day.....

and pretty soon, we will have a Republican everything,
and we won't even have to ask these questions on the Internet,
if we have an internet. If we don't, we can always use smoke signals...
so all is not lost!

[Major Hogwash]

30. Well, that's not very happy, hoppy, cheery, cherry for you, today.

Let them have a few weeks to let it really sink in before you kick everyone in the nads.

How the hell are you doing, anyway?

By the way, I'm so freaking pissed off, I'm thinking of running for a House seat myself in 2012.
I'm going to use an ad campaign that is totally negative and then deny that there are any twisted facts in the ads.
My first commercial will be with me saying "I'm not a witch, but I was married to one once."

LoL

[Yupster]

28. The map does look tough

My quick reactions

Massachusetts should be a win.
Snowe won't survive the primary. The person who beats her will lose.

Nevada might be a win

To the Democratic seats.

Nebraska looks gone.
North Dakota and Montana probably difficult holds.
Missouri, Wisconsin, Ohio, Virginia, West Virginia could all be vulnerable.

It looks like a tough year, but it will all depend on the presidential race.

[Better Believe It]

29. Is this a quiz? Let's see .... By not acting and sounding like Republicans?

Do I get to enter the bonus round?