Mother Jones: Weird Findings From 2010's Exit Poll Data

[marmar]

from Mother Jones:




.....(snip).....

First things first: In 2006 Democrats won the popular vote for the House of Representatives by about 8 points. In 2010, Republicans won the popular vote by about 6 points. That's a shift of 14 points. There are plenty of broad structural explanations for this—the economy, dislike of health care reform, whatever—but beyond that, we'd also like to know if there were any specific groups that helped power this Republican victory. Was it the youth vote? The evangelicals? What?

To find out, you have to look for groups that swung by substantially more or less than 14 points. So here they are. Based on a comparison of 2006 and 2010 exit polls, here are the demographic groups that showed the biggest swing into the Republican column this year:

* Nonvoters from 2008 (+56)
* Independents (+36)
* Rural voters (+25)
* Northeast voters (+20)
* Age 65 and older (+21)
* Catholics (+21)
* White voters (+19)
* Income under $30,000 (+19)
* Income over $200,000 (+19)
* High school grads (+19)

The most intriguing result here is the top one: People who didn't vote in the previous presidential election shifted into the Republican camp at a fantastic clip. I have no idea why. Maybe people who suddenly care about voting even though they didn't two years ago are usually motivated by animus toward whoever won. Hard to say. Still, intriguing though this is, the actual number of people in this category is small enough that it's not especially important. ...........(more)

The complete piece is at: http://motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2010/11/raw-data

[xchrom]

1. recommend

[TwilightGardener]

2. Republicans didn't like McLame. Could explain why they didn't care enough

to vote in 2008.

[LeftinOH]

3. The noisy fear factor ("death panels", etc) probably motivated a lot of people who

don't normally pay any attention to politics. Of coure, if they bought in to right-wing fear mongering, they STILL aren't paying attention.

[BzaDem]

4. I think there's an easy explanation. 2008 was a Democratic wave year. It was a Democratic wave year

in large part because conservatives were not enthusiastic and didn't turn out. So it only makes sense that conservatives make up much of the universe of people who didn't vote in 2008 (but came back this year because they were enthusiastic).

[zeemike]

5. I might suggest a reason why.

those are the racist votes....In 08 they had to vote for a black man or McCain who did not appeal to them so they stayed home.
Now they have a black man in the white house and they are mad, mad, mad.

[gratuitous]

10. I think that's at least part of it, and maybe a big part

It's a mistake to underestimate the amount of racism still lurking in the United States. Racism has learned not to wear white hoods and shout "Nigger," but its ignorant core still animates a significant segment of our population.

[struggle4progress]

6. our team blew gotv

these results don't necessarily show a big change in the population: they may just show is a big change in who turned out

[Ninga]

8. This was the first off-year election that the GOTV operation was in full swing in NE Ohio.

I phone banked (yucky job) 6 times in a suburb location with other folks doing the same.

This was repeated in other locations. And still. A shitty turn out. Other than knocking on doors and dragging folks to the polls the GOTV effort in these parts, was in full force.

[struggle4progress]

11. Practice makes perfect

[Evasporque]

7. Tea Party influence...Dumb attracted the Dumb.....nt

[LoZoccolo]

9. I'd imagine that it's people with tea party friends and/or relatives who fall for

all the conspiracy theories and/or other fear-based propaganda who were otherwise apolitical.

Also: recommend; good find.

[SoCalDem]

12. No idea why??? (Did a novice write this article?)

Because so many hated McCain AND Obama, they just stayed home...or maybe voted for neither..

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SoCalDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Sat Oct-30-10 06:49 PM
Original message
The GOP didn't give a shit about McCain/Palin (or any of their would-be candidates) in 2008.


In the run-up to '08, the ones "in the know" were keenly aware of the gigantic mess their Boy-George had made.

They did stage some resistance to the Democratic candidates, but it was tepid compared to what they are capable of, and we should have realized that.

This was their planning stage.

I think they may have been a bit flummoxed by the '06 rout they had suffered in the senate & house, and that was where they planned to concentrate for the immediate future. Obama's large turnout guaranteed that many gopers would be ousted, so they set their sights on '10. The GOPers they lost in '08 were not the most message-centric ones anyway, and they were probably replaced by dems who would be very vulnerable the next time around.

By immediately stating the obvious, as soon as Obama was elected, there was never any doubt of their plan. There was to be:
NO HELP..
NO COMPROMISE..
NO NOTHING from them.

All they had to offer the nation, after eight long, disastrous years, was NO HELP. How could they do this?

Easy..

The focus would be on "the new guy" ...the one with all the hope & promise. The GOP was more than happy to hand him the giant load of FAIL they grew for eight years. In fact, they would ADD more fail onto the load, by using arcane "rules" in the senate, and by watering down whatever legislative measures that did get passed.

They knew they could count on the media to help them stifle any real attempts to clean up them mess they made.

There was ample time to nurture their bull-pen and help them prepare for '10. But it's not even really about 2010 entirely. It's about 2012. That's their Holy Grail.

The moneyed ones in the GOP, have always worked in the shadows, and they are very good at controlling "the message".

Time was on their side. They had plenty of time to close ranks and rouse their angriest supporters. Democrats have always had the mantra of populism, and republicans needed to claim it as their own. Sarah taught them a valuable lesson. Given a choice, people often prefer frosting to cake.

They set out to capitalize on her rabid supporters' blind devotion and eagerness to avoid truth & reality.

They were willing to throw the general populace under the bus, in exchange for a victory lap in '10 and an even bigger one in '12 if they could ruin what's left of "the black guy from Kenya's" term.

Oddly, "the bus" was a big part of how the planned to do it. What could be more interesting to the media-monster than busloads of angry people mobbing meek democratic congresspeople/senators trying to hold townhall meetings? The more screaming, the more airtime. August '09 was the Ft. Sumpter of their very own "war of aggression". Those trips in big ole buses that fanned out across America, were not randomly occurring events. It was a carefully orchestrated campaign to undermine legislators, and to pave the way for what was to come.

The "spontaneous" outbursts of "KILL HIM", at Palin rallies , "YOU LIE" at the State of the Union Address, and the gun-toting at rallies, were but precursors to test the water. Having sailed though those tests, are we really surprised that the election season of 2010, ushered in unlawful arrests, head-stomping and various & sundry "throwings to the ground" of anyone who dared to even attend a rally they were not personally invited to attend?

This is the season of the "stealth" candidate, and apparently it only garnered an occasional chuckle from the spurned media. These are candidates whose histories are so flawed, whose demeanor is so lacking, whose intelligence is so absent, that they decided to hide from all but their own coven of like-minded zealots.

WE know they are inept, the media knows they are inept...Hell..even THEY know they are inept, but it does not matter. What matters is plain old arithmetic. If they get the numbers they need, they can control the agenda. What they don't even realize is that while they are doing simple math (addition & subtraction), and gloating all the way to DC, their overlords..the ones with the money on the line, are lounging in penthouses & estates as they do their own math. Their math involves angles & formulas, but it's not geometry, calculus or algebra (or even Sharrons). They are angling to become even richer and their formula for success is the same as it's always been:

Coerce "small" people to reject cogent thinking
Deny "small" people real access to growth
Create division
Nurture nativism
Cultivate tribalism
Encourage xenophobia
Excite "the base" (base, in every sense of the word), by dragging raw meat issues amidst them whenever possible:
..........race
..........abortion
..........gay marriage
..........guns
..........god

2010 will seem like child's play, unless a LOT of democrats start taking the GOP more seriously, and start treating them like the poisonous creatures they are. They have shown us their venom for decades, and we have tried to "tame" them , we have tried to ignore them, we have tried to shame them. Until we quit trying to change them, and start crushing them , they "win"...even when they lose.