Let's say the world economy fell into a syndrome where

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

Let's say the world economy fell into a syndrome where there is a huge shock that breaks something deep in the shaky house-of-cards system and then the whole mess restablizes at a permanent 2% growth rate as the new maximum average output of the system.

From the ground that would look like a big collapse followed by a bounce up. Going from -6% to +2% is a big jump. And then there would be a series of quarters that roughly average 2%. Such a series will be jagged, including quarters over 3% and under 1%.

To folks watching the economic day-to-day drama that syndrome will appear to be a cyclical crash and recovery. It would take years for it to really sink in that there is no actual recovery.

Near as I can tell the most dangerous idea in the world right now is the quasi-religious assumption that the global economy is a self-repairing and growing natural organic entity with an innate predisposition to grow. In actuality, it is a man-made thing that is maintained closely day by day, like a train engine.

Economic business cycles do have an organic component. You order too much inventory so you cut back. Then your inventory gets sold down so you have to restock. The self-interested actions of individuals in response to events lead to a self-corrective whole.

It does not, however, follow that all economic events are organically self-repairing. The great depression obviously was not. The Japanese lost decade obviously was not. In those instances the rational self-interested actions of individual players were BAD... destabilizing, growth inhibiting.

Cut into a tree and it will heal. Cut into a train engine and it will have to be repaired.

The current global conviction that we are in a self-sustaining recovery is not supported by the numbers except insofar as we are definitely ahead of where we were in 2009. That's not real persuasive unless a person likes to extrapolate the nature of a system from two data points.

[FirstLight]

1. exactly the reason why we have to focus on

COMMUNITY building...the global economy and the decisions made in washington will not help us. it is by forming more collectives locally that we can be sustainable ...
just my 2 cents

[felix_numinous]

3. +1

Absolutely, while one part of society is falling, work is needed to build up an alternative. We will have to turn to each other more for support. (I have looked into 'intentional' communities, but most of them look too expensive) :)

[FirstLight]

4. we can create intentional community

right in our own neighborhoods!
somehow we have to get to that point...

there is a community building sustainability movement in Santa Cruz, thay have some great resources... i'll try to find the link

edit: here
http://transitionsc.org/node/108

[felix_numinous]

6. Thanks!!

That is so thoughtful of you First Light. It is one thing I am working on right now, to find good places to check out. I may travel to visit them.

[blindpig]

2. They are whistling in the dark

Crisis is inherent to capitalism, their 'fixes' only exasperate the following crisis, which is inevitable. They are just along for the ride, as are we. Ain't no fixing Capitalism, tear it down.

[Greyhound]

5. Creating this extreme boom-bust cycle is the purpose of the global 'banking' system.

In each cycle, those that control the system make tremendous gains.
:kick: & R