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That's a political myth that seems to be conventional wisdom, but I have never seen that proven in any real sense.
The majority of people in the US are poor. Poor people are politically invisible, not moderate.
When I used to run a polling departing in a research firm (admittedly several decades ago) and did weekly omnibus surveys on political issues we routinely found that the single biggest correlating factor was income. On almost any issue, if you wanted to track what people thought, find out how much money they made.
It is very doubtful that this has changed since then.
I recall that the very poor supported public services. It was only once you got into the middle class (who are numerically much fewer), the people who counted that you found people who were "moderate" who thought that maybe we should consider whether we had too much public services, and maybe they should be cut back to save money. Middle class people don't use public services, and often don't care about people who do use them, and may not care about people who will be hurt if services get cut. That's a "moderate" position.
Poor people have always been will, historically, to invest tax money spent on the social safety net. They saw the need for it. Almost all had needed it, or expected to need it at some point. It is only once you get to people in the middle class that you find "moderates" who consider capping access to the social safety net, and who think that imposing work restriction on people on public assistance is a good idea. These "compromises" that limit access and punish poor people for needing help are "moderate" ideas, because only people who are at least middle class could think that it is reasonable to cut off help to people who need it, and punish people because they need help.
Poor people opposed the move away from public hospitals, and the move to privately owned corporate hospitals. "Moderates" didn't listen and supported the privatization of hospitals because it would supposedly allow hospitals to modernize, bring down costs, reduce redundancies, or do other wonderful things. This was part of our great love of all things in Capitalism starting in the 80s. History has shown us that the advocates for poor people were right and "moderates" were wrong. Privatizing hospitals allowed the hospitals to create monopolies, drive up prices, fire most of their workforce, drive down wages, destroy unions, close emergency rooms, and most of all, it allowed hospitals to stop providing services to the poorest and most indigent people. Only public hospitals, because they were taxpayer funded, were able to serve poor people and run at a loss when necessary. Public hospitals demand a profit, so costs skyrocket and only people with insurance get care.
So now we have this big debate about health care reform, and most of the people in the US, including almost every poor person ever polled, wanted guaranteed universal access to health care. Mandated access to Insurance was the "moderate" compromise. But access to insurance isn't the same as access to health care. And costs keep going up. Nothing in the reform bill is intended to lower costs, just slow the rate somewhat at which costs keep increasing. That is the "moderate" position.
Perhaps you can see how that won't be of much good to poor people, unless a system is put into place to have the government pay for those rising costs for poor people. Otherwise poor people are still going to be denied access to health care. And supposedly a system is coming to have government pay for these costs, but if that system ends up having flaws, because of any "moderate" compromises like this whole system has had so far, then it will be poor people who are likely to suffer for it.
I don't mean to imply from this that all poor people are progressives, or all middle class are moderates. I'm making generalizations about general trends. On wedge issues, like choice and LGBT rights, clearly this breaks down. But on most bread and butter issues, income would correlate very closely to political leanings.
The more income or resources someone had, or someone's family had (and therefore the fewer people in that population), the more likely someone was to have libertarian views. Add in age as a factor and this would correlate with being more likely to hold republican views too.
In all of this, nowhere do I see a majority of moderates. However, I certainly do see why it would be useful to create a political myth that the majority are moderates. If you make poor people invisible, so that only the middle class is considered "people" then immediately the views of the poor are considered unpalatable precisely because those are the views of those people who shouldn't be seen.
"Moderates" become more respectable, and populists (those who hold the views of the people) even among people in the middle class, are downplayed because the sounds like poor people. It isn't acceptable to sound like a poor person. That is very much where we are right now.
So we have moderates, who are not a majority, assuming that they are a majority, by ignoring all the people who really are the majority who have been rendered invisible.
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