Source: CNN World
By Tim Lister
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Despite the size of its armed forces, few analysts expect that the regime in the North would want to launch a general assault on the South, knowing that it would probably be repulsed and that in turn would imperil the regime. It might also ignite dissent.
"With the ongoing leadership transition in North Korea, there have been rumors of discontent within the military, and the current actions may reflect miscommunications or worse within the North's command-and-control structure," geopolitical risk analysis firm Stratfor says.
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There remains the great unanswered question about intentions. There's plenty of what one expert calls "echo chamber analysis." But as former President Carter wrote with a hint of understatement in the Washington Post on Wednesday: "No one can completely understand the motivations of the North Koreans."
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edited to add LINK to original story:
http://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/asiapcf/11/24/north.korea.capability/index.html______________________________________________
I think President Carter's evaluation at the end is probably what makes an already inherently dangerous situation so difficult to tackle: knowing what the various powers-that-be (most of whose names may not even be known among Americans) view as important during this transition phase between the little and littler Kim's.