Can Obama Rise Again?

[n2doc]

DECEMBER , 2010
Michael Tomasky
snip:

Obama must now find ways to do two seemingly incompatible things at the same time: win independents back and reestablish better relations with those to his left. His party lost sixty-five House districts, six Senate seats, and eight crucial governorships that he carried in 2008—in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Maine, Iowa, New Mexico, and Florida (technically governed by an independent, Charlie Crist). This means, among other things, that Obama has a smaller political base from which to operate than anticipated, and a weaker political machine. Critics from the President’s left and center, not shy to start with, will become less so.

And most of all, fissures that Obama’s election and early period managed to paper over will start to come out into the open now. His deficit commission may have made its recommendations by the time this article is published. The liberal and centrist wings of the party, both mollified by Obama the candidate in 2008, will start arguing now, and demanding that he make choices. On Social Security, for example, should the retirement age be raised? On Medicare, how can the trust fund that may soon run out be replenished? Can Obama find a way to direct public investment toward job creation? And he must now deal with a Congress that will try to force him to accept large spending cuts. What will he get in return? In the days after the election, both Mitch McConnell and John Boehner made bullying claims that Obama was “in denial” (Boehner’s phrase). It was dismaying to see that Obama had really nothing to say in response.

Bill Clinton found a way in 1995–1996, after the Democrats lost the House in 1994, to placate both the middle of his party and its base. Most controversially, he agreed to a punitive kind of welfare reform. But he also stood his ground when Newt Gingrich threatened cuts in Medicare, among other major programs. And when Gingrich tried to shut the government down, Clinton made him suffer a major defeat. Clinton got a big assist from the GOP. Its leaders overestimated their mandate and nominated a weak opponent to face him in 1996. Today’s Republicans might overreach on health care repeal, an issue that would certainly unite the liberal and moderate Democratic factions.

Counting on Republican overreach isn’t exactly what Obama and his admirers had in mind in 2008. But he must now fundamentally rethink the premises of his presidency. He moved into the White House believing that he really could persuade enough Republicans to work with him for the good of a country in crisis. (Nine GOP senators came from states he’d carried.) It was not an absurd belief, but time has revealed it to be a wrong one. Whatever he does or does not say publicly, one hopes that we can safely assume that he has given up any such illusion. But what comes next? It seemed, two years ago, that Obama had a strong capacity for self-reflection and awareness, and for arriving at fresh solutions. That capacity is now open to question. He’d better develop it quickly or his presidency will not recover.

the rest:
http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2010/dec/09/can-obama-rise-again/

[msongs]

1. sorry but it WAS an "absurd belief" to think repubs would do anything to help Obama...

because that was made clear by every repub politician with a mouth over and over and over.

Msongs

[Rosa Luxemburg]

2. Obam aneeds to be his own man

[CaliforniaPeggy]

3. I don't know if he can recover.

He's STILL talking about getting the Republicans to cooperate.

It's nuts.

They want him to fail, to be a lousy one-term President, and to me, it looks like he's playing into their hands.

How I hope I'm wrong.

[Bobbieo]

7. Yes, dear Ca. Peggy - they not only want him to fail - they hate his guts!

[Honeycombe8]

4. Yes, he can. Actually, his favorable numbers are not bad, considering

the economy. His numbers are higher than Reagan's were at this point in time, and higher than Bush's were at this time (I heard that on TV, in discussion of Obama's popularity).

This is a low point. Many people, esp. the talking heads who have a lot of air time to fill, like to assume a black or white view on things. When the Republicans lost so badly in 2008, remember all the talk that the GOP is dead for decades? Or permanently? I do. I thought that was silly then, and I think all this "the Dems are lost for decades, or Obama is a goner" is silly, too. It's overly dramatic and what is now doesn't have much to do with how things will be a year from now. People are fickle. Politics is fickle. The pendulum swings both right AND left.

Could be Obama will hit another low point in 2011 or 2012, and lose. But maybe not. No one knows.

[Countdown_3_2_1]

5. He has less than two years to do so.

Like it or not, the President is the centerpiece of the party. His fortunes may affect us all.

The party itself needs to undergo a fundamental change of tactics if it wants to stay afloat in 2012.
We need to reach out to the people and educate them.
We need to explain what we are doing, why and what the consequences will be.
We need to redefine socialism, and remove the negativity attached to word like that.

it.can.be.done.
we.can.win.the.war.of.words.

We don't need censorship. Let the Rush clones rant that men may know they are mad.
All we need is a platform, and patient, loving explanations.

why did the Independents leave? Find out why, and even if we do not like the answer, do what it takes to win them back.

What this calls for is leadership with a vision. Not one man, but a -party- that utilize multiple media formats, and innovate new ways to reach out to people.
A party with a plan. I wish we had one this year. But its not too late for 2012.

[madrchsod]

6. yes...if he decides to listen to the folks that put him in office