Plan B: How to Disarm Kim Jong Il without bombing him

[FLAprogressive]

http://freekorea.us/2008/01/22/plan-b-how-to-disarm-kim-jong-il-without-bombing-him/

"Plan A, gentle diplomacy, has again failed to disarm Kim Jong Il. Whenever this happens (every time it’s tried) advocates of doing the same thing over and over again fall back on The False Choice, whether expressly or by implication: it’s their way or war. They know better, of course, which technically makes this a lie. "

[Ozymanithrax]

1. Is there a bigger stick than war to force him or his successor to disarm...

Can the world continue to isolate him forever?

[Chipper Chat]

2. Send over Bill Clinton with a 747 loaded with American movie DVDs.

That should keep Il and Dong busy for months.

[HEyHEY]

3. Well, what was working before Bush added them to the axis of evil?

[Iterate]

4. Plan C: Counterintuitive

Perhaps it's too late for Plan C, but even as it might be still be applied to Cuba, maybe it's time to ask if it's really worth all of this just to prove in a self-righteous and self-fulfilling fashion that socialism must inevitably fail.

So let's just admit that we've learned that elites will do absolutely anything, including criminal capitalism or national suicide, when faced with their own isolation and eventual demise. Better to have started in 1990, but who wouldn't trade the current situation with that of a semi-prosperous North Korea, secure enough in it's borders to begin bilateral disarmament, open to trade and exchange, invited to rejoin the South at its own pace as a socialist/communist or multi-economic zone.

I'm not so naïve as to believe that it would be politically possible now to drop all restrictions (save nuclear import/exports), guarantee it's borders, open trade, etc., but I hope the fanboys of realpolitik will at least admit the errors of their perceptions.

[KharmaTrain]

5. The Mouse That Roared

I tend to think of North Korea as the Grand Duchy of Fenwick. It's regime has isolated itself to perpetuate its power at all costs. Times have changed; losing their two biggest benefactors in China & Russia and since have resorted to extortion and sabre rattling as a means to get attention and have some leverage in negotiations. While they set off missiles on one coast, on the other there are South Korean hotels and businesses setting up shop...while the North continues to play with a nuclear program, resources spent on this misadventure weaken other parts of the military. It's a country caught up in its own self importance wrapped in the complicated relationships that have developed between China, Japan, South Korea and the U.S.

The ultimate NK trump card remains the many missiles they have along the border that could deliver a destructive first blow on the South, but the response would be overwhelming and ultimately self destructive for the Pyongyang regime. I do honestly believe that in time the North will either collapse under their own largess or modify as China did to a quasi-capitalistic system that would open the door for reunification with the South. The North can't dominate the South and the South doesn't want to take on the massive expense of "fixing" the North. Thus I believe the status quo will remain.

Cheers...

[KharmaTrain]

6. The Mouse That Roared

I tend to think of North Korea as the Grand Duchy of Fenwick. It's regime has isolated itself to perpetuate its power at all costs. Times have changed; losing their two biggest benefactors in China & Russia and since have resorted to extortion and sabre rattling as a means to get attention and have some leverage in negotiations. While they set off missiles on one coast, on the other there are South Korean hotels and businesses setting up shop...while the North continues to play with a nuclear program, resources spent on this misadventure weaken other parts of the military. It's a country caught up in its own self importance wrapped in the complicated relationships that have developed between China, Japan, South Korea and the U.S.

The ultimate NK trump card remains the many missiles they have along the border that could deliver a destructive first blow on the South, but the response would be overwhelming and ultimately self destructive for the Pyongyang regime. I do honestly believe that in time the North will either collapse under their own largess or modify as China did to a quasi-capitalistic system that would open the door for reunification with the South. The North can't dominate the South and the South doesn't want to take on the massive expense of "fixing" the North. Thus I believe the status quo will remain.

Cheers...

[hack89]

7. What does anything the US does relate to how they treat their citizens?

NK bears sole responsibility for imprisoning, killing and starving their own citizens. There is no reason to believe that even moderate economic improvements would translate to improved freedoms for the average North Korean - they would simply have enough to survive and thus be compliant in the face of government coercion.

It has nothing to do with their economic policies - I don't automatically associate murderous police states with socialism. Surely you are not arguing that NK has no choice but to oppress it's citizens because of US policies?

[Iterate]

8. No, that doesn’t excuse the NK leadership in the least.

You don’t get a pass for such brutality by claiming “We were picked on.”

We did however, along with the regional powers, have an influence and some control over the external dynamic. If our own ideology and limited thinking has helped produce this result, then I think we do bear some responsibility for it, and at a minimum owe it to ourselves and to history to learn that when facing an authoritarian and cultish state, isolation and threats will merely serve to ramp up the repression and paranoia.

We have known since the days of the Eastern Pennsylvania State Prison the effects of isolation on individuals where the authorities had such absolute control, and its effect in cults and small groups should have been apparent even to the densest politicians after Jonestown and Waco. I just can’t think offhand of such an extreme and large-scale historical example as NK (and maybe there just isn’t one), but lesser degrees of isolation and tyranny all across the globe certainly have ended with trade and interaction.

Since 2003 especially, I’ve watched the modern EU expansion, and though I won't be placed in the position of apologist for them, there is something different about it, as it begins with an impossible conflict, then moves to some mutually beneficial trade, cultural, and scientific exchanges, grows some wealth, and leads to an invitation to join based not only on economic principles, but ones of social justice and human rights as well. Don't forget that these are countries and ethnic groups that have spent centuries as sworn enemies. Maybe it’s only remarkable because it stood in such sharp contrast to the bush policies of bullyboy coercion, breaking things, and shooting the place up. But it has worked to date, hold your breath.

There was a point after 1991 when among the few remaining fully communist states were the DPRK, Cuba, and Vietnam -each an abandoned client state that the US had been in military conflict with: one isolated, one with some European and regional trade, and one that opened trade to the world and took on a mixed economy. Different dynamic, different results.

[hack89]

9. NK will never allow any degree of integration with the global economy

it would be impossible without a significant lessening of domestic political control. The NK leadership sees where China is heading and it terrifies them - they are not willing to give up so much economic and political control. They have no real legitimacy and would not survive the wrath of the people if control is weakened. Yet without weakening government control they will never have a working economy - how could they possibly function in a global economy? What do they have to offer the world?

The difference between NK, Cuba and Viet Nam is each government has a different degree of legitimacy. The NK government was imposed by the Soviet Union while the other two reflect national liberation movements that fought to overthrow oppressive regimes. The NK does not have a reservoir of respect and good will that allows their population to give them the benefit of the doubt - if the NK population was exposed to the real world and learned the truth about their government then it becomes more impossible for NK to be a "normal" country with "normal" relationships with the rest of the world. It would be impossible to hold together without even more internal oppression.

[Iterate]

10. I know, and I'm stuck arguing counterfactual history,

which I loathe and normally would not think of doing. That's why I said it's probably too late. Anything I mentioned would have needed a thirty-year timescale, at best, and possibly half again more.

No, they couldn't survive a global economy, and haven't, with not even 1/4 of the amount needed to build system change, and especially when it only involves two or three trusted partners, where twice that would be a minimum needed. So you get boatloads of subsidized NK gravel to Vietnam that makes no sense in strict economic terms. And the more important part of trade is the exchange of personnel and ideas, which they have not permitted.

I don't want to overstate the EU model or underplay the differences. By comparison, Romania had about the same population in 1992, but had trade relationships with the whole eastern bloc as well as the Russian Federation. When trade with Russia collapsed, there was still a social model that could be rebuilt in the EFTA. They also had companion nations with which to make a transition and an acceptable model for mixed economies. There was also time on their side, because as many have said (and I agree) the transition began in 1968. NK has none of those advantages and all of the constraints.

Still, though the universe owes us no solution to all problems, I can't accept that this is the unsolvable problem, or that the old thinking has much more to offer. Time to be thoughtful and creative. Perhaps the Chinese have a gram of influence left, perhaps not, but it's all moot anyway as I see the conservatives today are banging away at their well worn drum.

Anyway thanks for your time, and be assured that the topic has prompted some research suggestions that I've passed on. I have a bad feeling that we'll see more collapses and failed paradigms in the next few decades and perhaps it can be of benefit someday.