The End of "Growth" -- Get used to it...

[ProudDad]

Introduction: The New Normal

The central assertion of this book is both simple and startling: Economic growth as we have known it is over and done with.

The “growth” we are talking about consists of the expansion of the overall size of the economy (with more people being served and more money changing hands) and of the quantities of energy and material goods flowing through it.

The economic crisis that began in 2007-2008 was both foreseeable and inevitable, and it marks a permanent, fundamental break from past decades—a period during which most economists adopted the unrealistic view that perpetual economic growth is necessary and also possible to achieve. There are now fundamental barriers to ongoing economic expansion, and the world is colliding with those barriers.

http://www.postcarbon.org/article/178709-the-end-of-growth

....

Why is Growth Ending?

Many financial pundits point to profound problems internal to the economy—including overwhelming, un-repayable levels of public and private debt, and the bursting of the real estate bubble—as immediate threats to the resumption of economic growth. The assumption generally is that eventually, once these problems are dealt with, growth can and will pick up again. But the pundits generally miss factors external to the financial economy that make a resumption of conventional economic growth a near-impossibility. This is not a temporary condition; it is essentially permanent.

Altogether, as we will see in the following chapters, there are three primary factors that stand firmly in the way of further economic growth:

* The depletion of important resources including fossil fuels and minerals;
* The proliferation of environmental impacts arising from both the extraction and use of resources (including the burning of fossil fuels)—leading to snowballing costs from both these impacts themselves and from efforts to avert them and clean them up; and
* Financial disruptions due to the inability of our existing monetary, banking, and investment systems to adjust to both resource scarcity and soaring environmental costs—and their inability (in the context of a shrinking economy) to service the enormous piles of government and private debt that have been generated over the past couple of decades.

[Tansy_Gold]

1. Edward Abbey

"Growth for the sake of growth is the ideology of the cancer cell."

[ProudDad]

2. Exactly

:hi:

[Tansy_Gold]

4. It's one of those sayings that once heard, you never forget.

Kinda like my sig line.


:hi:



TG

[gratuitous]

9. Exactly

And all of us healthy cells are required to do our utmost to support the cancer cells. Anything less, and you're just a dirty fucking hippie, expecting ponies and looking for rainbows. How did "cancer" get such a bad reputation anyhow? Just because cancer cells are more successful than others, you just want to penalize them! Socialist! Commie! Librul!

[Safetykitten]

3. I agree that growth as we knew it is dead, but the future holds many possibilities, many good...

it is just a tragic shame that it could of started with a launch of a massive work program and a national high speed rail system.

[ProudDad]

5. There's plenty of "work" available

and people to do it...

To build up our local economies and build community resilience...

And a national HS rail system powered by the sun and wind...

[Subdivisions]

12. Dream on...

It ain't gonna happen.

I swear to God those of you who think things will get better are going to regret thinking that way.

[ProudDad]

27. I still do my work locally to bring it about...

Of course I realize that the odds are against it...

But it's more fun to work towards a sustainable future than to hide my head in the sand...

Or surrender...

[Subdivisions]

33. Of course we must do what we can. But, like most things that are out of our control,

our efforts will prove futile. And the sole reason for that is that we can't do it by ourselves. And we won't get any help from those who hold to BAU.

I tried to address the issue with my town's leaders and was literally laughed at. And it's exactly that attitude that brings me to the conclusion that it ain't going to happen.

[ProudDad]

35. My rational self

<totally agrees -- don't tell anyone>

But for my mental health, I pretend that I can make a difference somehow and keep on keepin' on...

[blindpig]

6. As long as it is Capitalism there will be growth

Growth is a requirement of Capitalism, the difference will be that not even a trickle will be had by the working class. So they turn education into a cash cow, loot Social Security, poison ground water with frakking, whatever it takes. As long as this economic model is in place it can be no other way, the only thing to be done is to replace Capitalism with a rational, egalitarian economic system.

[ProudDad]

28. Yep

http://steadystate.org/

[laughingliberal]

7. K & R nt

[JohnyCanuck]

8. Downsides of Growth

There Is a Conflict between Economic Growth and:

(1) Environmental Protection
A growing economy consumes natural resources and produces wastes. It results in biodiversity loss, air and water pollution, climate destabilization, and other major environmental threats.

(2) Economic Sustainability
A healthy environment is the foundation of a healthy economy. We need healthy soils for agriculture, healthy forests for timber, and healthy oceans for fisheries. Along with clean air for breathing and clean water for drinking, these are the building blocks of a prosperous economy and a good life.

(3) National Security and International Stability
When economic growth threatens the environment and economic sustainability, social unrest is the result, and national security is compromised. Economic growth was once used for building military power, but in an overgrown global economy, economic sustainability is more conducive to diplomacy and stability among nations.

Evidence of the Conflict

The conflict between economic growth and environmental protection is becoming more apparent as the oversized economy bumps up against limits. From depletion of ocean fisheries to loss of pollinators, from groundwater drawdown to deforestation, from climate change to increasing concentrations of toxic pollution (not to mention increasing childhood cancer rates), from massive urban slums to degraded rural lands, the consequences of too much economic growth are observable all around us.

Ecological footprint analysis also reveals that the economy has become overgrown. The footprint measures how much land and water area a human population requires to produce the resources it consumes and to absorb its wastes under prevailing technology. According to data from the Global Footprint Network, the footprint of all nations exceeded the biological capacity of the planet in the mid- to late 1980s. We find ourselves in a global state of overshoot, accumulating ecological debt by depleting natural capital to keep the economy growing.

http://steadystate.org/discover/downsides-of-economic-growth/

[jwirr]

10. I cannot wait to read this author. He so makes sense. No one seems

to understand that all of us down here that used to drive the growth are broke - we are victims of growth. Even if we got our own finances in order we would be very leary about going out and doing it all over again.

[BeFree]

11. Growth is easy

More Babies. Babies cost how much to make?
And then, since they have to be fed, we need to grow more to feed them.
They are new consumers.
More babies mean more jobs.

Right?

[Subdivisions]

13. Wrong. More babies mean less and less for everyone else. n/t

[BeFree]

14. Actually

Rich people like us are the cause of less and less for everyone else.

Why do you hate babies?

[Subdivisions]

15. I don't hate babies. Got 4 grandkids under 2 years and love them

to no end.

[BeFree]

16. So

You are bitching at yourself for less and less for everyone else?

[Subdivisions]

18. I'm not bitching about anything. I simply understand the problem.

I thought you and I were on the same page about this stuff? Despite us being friends for some years now you seem to have a problem with me. If so, what is it?

[BeFree]

19. We are

Except I don't have any kids.

So, I can't bitch at myself for more babies making for less and less.
But, since I am rich, (relatively) I do understand the root of the problem.

[BeFree]

23. Problem?

Nah, except for maybe you make friends with an enemy of mine....dude. <grin>

Actually, I figure you can take the hard questions. Many can't, so you get them.
Grok?

[Subdivisions]

26. Message received. You're referring to certain niceties regarding a

tragic situation that occured awhile ago. But that is the extent of it, I assure you. The same issues that divide you divide us as well.

I understand.

[BeFree]

31. Cool

Who else on the board could I call into question their having babies?
Most would alert on me til the sun came up and went down and came up again.
Bet here is that it didn't even cross your mind.

[Subdivisions]

32. No. Didn't cross my mind.

I've tried to explain all this to my kids but, of course, they don't listen.

[BeFree]

34. It is bad news

Glad I am an old man, I am.
And feel bad for the wee ones.
They didn't cause it, but they will pay the price, eh?

[Subdivisions]

36. When I'm bouncing those precious beings on my knee, I'm

scared to death of the world that awaits them.

[ProudDad]

20. That's exactly what got us into this pickle

Thanks to the short-term heroin fix of cheap fossil fuels over the last couple of a hundred of years...

Humans have been able to overpopulate the Earth...

The true carrying capacity of Earth that can sustain a reasonably comfortable standard of living for each person is about 2 billion persons...

We overshot by 5 billion...

And are destroying the web of life that supports us...

More BIRTH CONTROL, more empowerment of women, rational power-down and relocalizing for resilience is what's needed...

NOT MORE BABIES!!!!


On Edit: Ah, I just got your implied :sarcasm: thingie...

[BeFree]

22. Right?

Imagine an India, or China, living like we rich Americans live.
It would be like 2050 already.

[eridani]

25. More than replacement level population growth = shitting in the drinking water n/t

[starroute]

17. Growth depends on energy -- not on money or on babies

We've had a free ride the last few centuries through exploiting fossil fuels -- which created the illusion of unlimited growth. Capitalism, which assumed that it was possible to produce and sell goods and make a fat profit in the process, was a product of that situation.

But that's coming to an end. We're back in the more normal situation where the energy equation has to balance out. That means there's no profit for the capitalists except by exploiting the workers, the consumers, or an increasingly degraded planet. Which is what they're currently trying to do -- but it can't last.

Eventually, we're going to be back in the historically more normal situation of living with a sustainable economy, where all the equations have to balance. What this means in practice is that goods have to be sold at pretty much the cost of production, with nothing extra to go into the pockets of non-productive owners, managers, and financiers.

So say good-bye to capitalism, for starters.

There is still room for growth in such a system, but it's the slow organic growth of learning how to do more with less and make your procedures more efficient. It's not the endless expansion we've been accustomed to.

The people who flourish in that sort of system will be the innovators, the recyclers, the people who know how to use every last bit of the pig. It will be in many ways a better life than most of us know right now -- probably one with less work and more creative leisure -- but it will take some getting used to and it will have no room for waste.

[ProudDad]

21. Whew!

I feel so alone in most of the threads on DU when pointing out these obvious problems...

:hi:

We need to live better, not bigger!

[Better Believe It]

24. That's only for working people. Profits and personal fortunes will continue to escalate.

[ProudDad]

29. Naw...

as the energy and resources run out they may hold up in their guarded, gated bunkers but...

Their "fortunes" will also collapse...

[cbdo2007]

30. There will always be growth - it just may not be in the same places it's been in the past.

That's one thing that always seems to be missed here on DU is they expect the economy to always progress just like it always has. If someone mentions newspapers going out of business everyone freaks out about how horrible that is, yet news websites are becoming the new norm so really there is no need for newspapers.

The economy is changing. New businesses are taking over for old businesses that are no longer needed and we're simply in a transition period. Look at the stocks making the biggest gains this year and you'll see the future.

[ProudDad]

37. Expand your mind...

Instead of thinking in terms of material growth since we've already busted through Earth's limits on that score...

We have to think of powering down and growing better, not bigger...

"Business" as its manifested in the capitalist "economy" is a recent, dead-end development...

As for "stocks" -- that's a rich man's casino that has NO bearing on what I'm talking about except that for the last 20 years when the "stock market" gets healthier that means that workers are getting screwed...

There will BE NO "Stock Market" on a sustainable planet...

[robertpaulsen]

38. Great post and great thread!

I appreciate all you do to enlighten DUers on the subject. I http://americanjudas.blogspot.com/2009/12/devolution-reality-of-post-peak.html">try to http://americanjudas.blogspot.com/2010/02/primal-forces-of-nature-vs-real-primal.html">write about this http://americanjudas.blogspot.com/2010/03/elephant-in-health-care-room.html">predicament whenever I can, to http://americanjudas.blogspot.com/2010/08/technocracy-is-it-way-to-change-how.html">varying degrees of http://americanjudas.blogspot.com/2010/09/lamentations-for-lost-goddess.html">success. Keep it up, ProudDad!

[ProudDad]

41. Thanks...

I'm going to try to post more of this kind of article in the future...

And try to disengage from being snarky in meaningless threads about the fluff the propaganda machine throws in our faces to distract us (as much fun as that can be... :) )

I love the first paragraph of this one! "Technocracy: Is It The Way To Change How Money Works?" Good work!

I've been a long time capitalism fighter and have loathed the corporations since having to work in a few, but only a recent initiate into the truth about Peak Oil and it's evil twin Catastrophic Global Climate Destabilization.

This is important stuff and it seems that more and more folks are starting to "get it" so, who knows?

"So, we're in agreement? We're all screwed, right?" The response would be laughter, because when you're aware of the full ramifications of Peak Oil, you have to have a sense of humor to be able to keep on living."

Gotta love it - I should get that tattooed on my chest... :)

[L0oniX]

39. Sustainability is impossible with finite resources.

It was when we were hunter gatherers...but it isn't possible now.

[ProudDad]

42. You've got that back-asswards

Constant GROWTH is impossible with finite resources...

Sustainability is what the Earth DOES and will do again once we stop wounding her...

[ChimpersMcSmirkers]

40. Negative. Technology continues to advance and with it productivity and growth. The problem is that

productivity is being translated into profits to the upper class. Wealth disparity is the number one problem the US faces.

[ProudDad]

43. Nope...

the impending death of the planet caused by the side-effects of most "technology" is the number one problem the Earth's people and creatures face...

Productivity gains going to the leech class is a relatively new development in USAmerica. The damage has been caused by the "system" for over 200 years...

And has now proceeded to the point where we are rapidly destroying the web of life that supports us...


(Screw the US -- it's a dead-end anachronism like all nations... Part of the problem, not able to contribute to the solution -- especially today's Corporate States of America...)