Looking for Mr. or Mrs. Right
Coalescing behind a single 2012 presidential candidate is going to be tricky for the ever-fractured conservative Christians of the GOP.
http://www.newsweek.com/2010/12/09/christian-conservatives-can-t-find-a-candidate.html“The supposed frontrunners have all got problems,” says Richard Land, president of the Southern Baptist Convention’s Ethics & Religious Liberty Commission and a prominent leader of the religious right. Mitt Romney? “He put ‘Obamacare Light’ in place in Massachusetts,” says Land. “It’s going to be awfully difficult for him to surmount that.” Sarah Palin? “Her problem is her very high negatives. Evangelicals want somebody they like, but they also want somebody who can beat Barack Obama.” Mike Huckabee? “The problem Mike’s got is that he and Sarah Palin are appealing to the same base, and Sarah has stronger appeal to that base.” And Newt Gingrich? “Two ex-wives is one ex-wife too many for most evangelicals.”
It’s still very early, of course, but it’s unclear if any of the names that keep coming up as GOP nominees for the White House could be ones that the Christian conservatives can get behind. And if anything, they have too many options, not too few; most of the potential candidates being discussed these days firmly back the religious right’s agenda. But what many leaders of the movement want to avoid is a repeat of 2008, when they failed to unite behind a single candidate and ended up diluting their strength. “This time, I think there will be a concerted effort to make sure that doesn’t happen again,” says the Rev. Samuel Rodriguez, president of the National Hispanic Christian Leadership Conference. Midterm election surveys showed that Christian conservatives turned out more strongly this year than in 2006, comprising 32 percent of the electorate, according to a poll by the Faith and Freedom Coalition. Effectively channeled, that enthusiasm could prove potent in 2012.
The two potential contenders with the most grassroots support are Palin and Huckabee. Palin played a significant role in the recent midterm cycle, triggering surges of buzz and donations every time she tweeted her endorsement of a particular candidate (though her picks had mixed success). For his part, Huckabee, a former Baptist preacher, receives rapturous receptions at gatherings of the faithful, like the annual Values Voter Summit. Both have also benefited from their TV gigs—he with his talk show on Fox News Channel, and she with her regular appearances on the network, as well as her reality show on TLC. Yet, in addition to the drawbacks cited above, each has been criticized for running ineffectual, sometimes chaotic, organizations. Huckabee’s 2008 campaign apparatus proved incapable of capitalizing on the wave of popular support he received. Though he won the Iowa caucuses, he failed to sustain that momentum and, two months later, withdrew.
But, a lesser known batch of possible candidates might provide a better fit for Christian voters: Tim Pawlenty, the former governor of Minnesota and an evangelical; Rick Santorum, a former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania who’s Catholic and a steadfast social conservative; Mike Pence, an Indiana congressman who won this year’s straw poll at the Values Voter Summit; and John Thune, a U.S. senator from South Dakota who’s evangelical and is considered a rising GOP star. All would likely sit well with the religious right, yet for now, they lack widespread name recognition. Another figure who’s prompting speculation is Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, an establishment Republican who’s won acclaim over the years for being a savvy and effective leader. But some Christians aren’t so sure. “He’s not real strong on social-conservative issues,” says Mathew Staver, dean of the evangelical Liberty University School of Law. He’s “too old guard ... I think he’ll fall flat early.”