Holy Crap: Obama's losing support; Romney would beat him now

[nashville_brook]

There's been way too much emphasis on Obama possibly having a challenger from left in the primary. What if his rightward drift alone puts the GOP in office in 2012?

McClatchy here reports that the president's continued failure to rally independents could ruin his bid for re-election, and a hypothetical 2012 matchup showed Obama getting the support of 44 percent of registered voters and Romney, a former Massachusetts governor, getting 46 percent.


http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2010/12/10/105105/poll-obamas-losing-support-romney.html


WASHINGTON — President Barack Obama's approval ratings have sunk to the lowest level of his presidency, so low that he'd lose the White House to Republican Mitt Romney if the election were held today, according to a new McClatchy-Marist poll.

The biggest reason for Obama's fall: a sharp drop in approval among Democrats and liberals, apparently unhappy with his moves toward the center since he led the party to landslide losses in November's midterm elections. At the same time, he's gained nothing among independents.

"He's having the worst of both worlds right now," said Lee Miringoff, the director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion at Marist College in New York, which conducted the national survey. "As he moves to the center, he's not picking up support among independents and he's having some fall-off among his base. If his strategy is to gain independents and keep the Democrats in tow, it isn't working so far."

The poll was taken from Dec. 2 through Wednesday, as the president proposed a two-year freeze on federal civilian workers' pay and cut a deal with congressional Republicans to extend expiring tax cuts — even those for the wealthy, which he'd opposed.

Overall, just 42 percent of registered voters approve of how he's doing his job, while 50 percent disapprove.

Obama's standing among Democrats dropped from a month ago, with his approval rating falling to 74 percent from 83 percent, and his disapproval rating almost doubling, from 11 percent to 21 percent.

Among liberals, his approval rating dropped from 78 percent to 69 percent and his disapproval rating jumped from 14 percent to 22 percent.

His position among independents remained virtually the same, with 39 percent approving and 52 percent disapproving. A month ago, it was 38-54.



Read more: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2010/12/10/105105/poll-obamas-losing-support-romney.html#ixzz17urjFoj9

[Skink]

1. We got Romney care anyway why not make it official.

[TheKentuckian]

2. Uh oh, you're hitting a favored meme

[nashville_brook]

12. How so?

[TheKentuckian]

72. That a primary would destroy the party and hurt our chances of repelling the TeaPubliKlans

When the reality is probably closer to running our weak sell out is giving away the Presidency unless they run Palin or some such joke.

[polichick]

3. Well duh - wonder if he's happy now. nt

[DrDan]

4. I can't imagine what he has done to cause that . . . .

[Scurrilous]

5. K & R

Off to the greatest!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=102&topic_id=4653961">Again!:thumbsup:

[Karmadillo]

6. La la la la la la la la la la la la la la la la la la la la la la la la la la la GOBAMA!

nt

[Aramchek]

31. put your money where your mouth is and particpate in my fund DU Fund Drive

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=433&topic_id=546305&mesg_id=546305

But only if you actually believe what you say...

[LAGC]

71. Your thread was locked.

As for why you didn't get too many "bites" on your offer, I think even most of the Obama critics on here don't really want a Republican to win in 2012, we just wish we had someone to root for, that's all.

[ProSense]

7. Romney 2012! n/t

[nashville_brook]

10. This is exactly what we've been saying since the HCR debate - rightward drift hurts the party

The brand has to stand for something or else it becomes irrelevant.

[John Q. Citizen]

20. i know I've said it, repeatedly. We tried to warn people but they seemed oblivious or even hostile

at times to the notion that Obama could be damaging his popularity by acting too Republican.

I hope they take a minute and consider that maybe we were warning them because we care.

[nashville_brook]

21. Yes, I know. Those warnings have been called "ponies" in the past, but maybe we're beyond that now.

I surely hope so because we don't have time to fuck around.

[Laelth]

40. Spot on. n/t

-Laelth

[Name removed]

14. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[nashville_brook]

15. In terms of party viability, the best we can hope for is a tea party indie challenge....

And if that happens, there's no reason not to field a challenge from the left.

[ProSense]

19. This poll is nonsense. n/t

[nashville_brook]

22. Can you elaborate on the instrument's shortcomings?

[emulatorloo]

26. Historical Precedent. Clinton and Reagan had similar poll results midway in first term

A lot can happen in two years.

[nashville_brook]

34. So, it's not the instrument...it's the certainty that history is written.

For Obama to pull this off the whole country will have to move farther right.and that is a very bad thing for real people feeling the effects of capital being amassed at the top.

[emulatorloo]

41. ProSense also points out MOE, and questions about Romney's nomination

"For Obama to pull this off the whole country will have to move farther right.and that is a very bad thing for real people feeling the effects of capital being amassed at the top."

I think the country is going to get a quick Refresher Course in "Republican Control 101". They didn't like it so much the last time, somehow they "forgot" during the 2010 election.

[nashville_brook]

51. he'll need to push back against that "Republican Control 101" in order to benefit.

We'll see if that happens, but so far it looks like he's wanting to do business with them instead us.

I hope he proves me wrong. But that hasn't been a good bet these last two years.

[ProSense]

37. Here

1) It's too early. 2) The margin of error suggest this isn't statistically significant. 3) Romney is not going to be the GOP nominee.

[leeroysphitz]

43. Way to miss the point...

:eyes:

[nashville_brook]

52. of the three, you are most likely correct on only one...that Romney isn't the likely nominee

it will be someone stronger.

In the case of the other two...this poll reflects sentiments right now. There's valuable lessons to be learned from that. If ignored, that will result in a GOP win in 2012.

[Edweird]

61. I guess we'll see in two years, won't we?

[Smashcut]

53. Maybe Obama could be his running mate.

[bullwinkle428]

8. ZOMG...HE MUST MOVE FURTHER TO THE RIGHT!!1!1!

:crazy: :crazy: :crazy:



:evilgrin:

[BeyondGeography]

9. The R's would really have to hold their nose to nominate Romney

His health care plan makes their base apoplectic. They will be obsessed with electability, however, which gives him a chance. I think he's their best option.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

11. Great strategy. Pander to the right, alienate the left. Except it doesn't work.

[nashville_brook]

65. this is what happens when a leader is surrounded by "yes men"

and campaign donors. it's the subject of many Greek tragedies.

[stillwaiting]

13. It's because of his leftist, liberal positions.

:P

[krabigirl]

16. Romney and Obama have nearly identical positions on most things.

[Tesha]

28. But Romney is an actual Republican and will garner Republican votes. (NT)

[emulatorloo]

42. I don't think he is insane enough for today's Republican Voter.

Actually I think he is a piss poor candidate, I can't see the Republicans nominating him. His reputation as a "great businessman" is based on the fact that he fired lots of people.

[Edweird]

57. So you're saying Romney is a "liberal" and a "progressive" just like Obama?

[Lorien]

73. How is Obama a liberal or Progressive?

Name ten ACTIONS that he has taken in the past two years that are liberal and progressive. THAT MEANS: serve the needs of the middle and working people and/ or environment over the greed of corporations and the rich.

Ten. List them.

[Edweird]

76. Here

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irony">The TEN ways

[Bluerthanblue]

17. yeah, with support like this, who needs enemies-

:shrug:

this is garbage.

[nashville_brook]

66. it's just data -- do with it what you will.

[Cleita]

18. I'd rather have a real Republican to blame for policy than a

Democrat who governs like a Republican. Time to purge the DLC from our party and send them to the other side of the aisle where they belong. Maybe Lieberman should form his own party that the Blue Dogs and DLCers can join.

[nashville_brook]

25. Yes indeed, because we're seeing the demise of the entire Democratic brand.

The rightward drift of this administration will have a negative impact on the entire party for many years to come. Many of us experienced this during the midterms with unanswered phones, and doors slammed in our faces. Rank and file Dems feel betrayed and that will take years to heal.

[Name removed]

32. Deleted message

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[GoCubsGo]

23. So?

The election is two years away. Polls like this are meaningless given that time span.

[Tesha]

35. Were all the warnings ahead of 2010 meaningless as well?

As I recall, there were plenty of warnings more than a year
ahead, but they were dismissed as well. Yet somehow, it
worked out almost exactly as we Cassandras predicted:
incredibly badly.

As will 2012 without a miraculous course change.

Tesha

[RZM]

44. 4 years ago

A lot of people thought the 2008 presidential contest would be between Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani. Obama hadn't even announced yet. So I don't think this means much. Romney might not even be the nominee. He has a shot, but it's not a given.

[GoCubsGo]

48. Exactly right.

We have no clue as to who they will even nominate, let alone what circumstances we'll face two years from now.

[Tesha]

54. The point, though, is that there are Republicans who defeat our incumbent.

It didn't have to be this way.

Tesha

[RZM]

56. I'm not saying Obama will waltz back into the White House in 2012

He's going to have to work hard. Depending on the nominee, it's probably going to be a lot closer than 2008 and he certainly could lose, though I think the Republican nominee will have a pretty tough time making it happen and will need help from circumstances to do so.

My prediction is that Obama will win, but by a relatively small margin. It will probably look more like 2004 than 1996 or 1984. But a lot could happen between now and then. It's close enough to start thinking about scenarios, but far too early to make anything but vague predictions.

[GoCubsGo]

47. People said Harry Reid was toast, too. n/t

[emulatorloo]

24. Clinton and Reagan were supposed to lose bigtime too, per pundits and polls

2012 is a ways away yet, we will have to see what happesn.

[Nay]

27. Just once, I'd like a president's "strategy" to be to help the American people

as a whole, without looking at polls, talking to the rich, or triangulating with powerful people.

[Bluerthanblue]

38. until they can count on the support of the Dem's in the house and

senate, they are going to have to compromise with the power-block that the Republicans represent.

And no matter how much a president wants to do what is best for the American people they won't be able to enact their policies without that support.

[Name removed]

29. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[nashville_brook]

36. Ignore the approval ratings if you like, and enjoy the Palin presidency -- :)

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

30. Right up until Romney opens his yapper.

[nashville_brook]

50. Romney = generic establishment Republican

[Lucian]

33. And this is surprising...how?

I don't know why Romney supporters don't support Obama. He's like a Republican anyways.

[Edweird]

55. "Given the choice between a Republican and someone who acts like a Republican,

people will vote for the real Republican every time" Harry S. Truman

[elocs]

39. Except, the election is not "now". I don't believe Romney will even get the Republican nomination.

Conservative evangelicals will not support a Mormon because they believe Mormonism to be a cult. They will support someone else as will the teabaggers.

[suston96]

45. Holy crap: Obama's approval rating among independents increasing.....

From the OP:

"As he moves to the center, he's not picking up support among independents and he's having some fall-off among his base. If his strategy is to gain independents and keep the Democrats in tow, it isn't working so far."

Then later in the post:

"His position among independents remained virtually the same, with 39 percent approving and 52 percent disapproving. A month ago, it was 38-54."

Uh, that's an improvement!

[nashville_brook]

46. read the whole article...Romney beats Obama among indies...

that's the problem with the rightward drift strategy...any vanilla-flavored establishment Republican looks more trustworthy if the basic fight is over how center-right they can be.

From the article:

Romney had the best advantage over the president among independents, preferred by 47-39 percent. Independents break for Obama over Huckabee by 42-40 percent. Palin fares much worse among independents. They favor the president over her by 52-35 percent.

Read more: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2010/12/10/105105/poll-obamas-losing-support-romney.html#ixzz17vGl8eh0

[MrMickeysMom]

49. My future bumper sticker...

[lefthandedlefty]

58. Wouldn`t surprise me if Obama doesn`t even run in 2012

Everytime I hear him speak lately his tone and attitude sounds like a man that has enough and is done with the bull.

[Lorien]

74. As a candidate he dropped hints that he wouldn't run for a second term

numerous times. By the time he's done the only supporters he'll have on "The Left" are the fanboys and fangirls who just love being on his "team" because his speeches make them feel good and because he looks so darn swell in a suit or swim trunks. He knows it. He's preparing to sell us all out, and he'll pull an LBJ then join the Carlyle Group once he's done doing the GOPs dirty work.

[Initech]

59. Gag, I do not want to live in a country where the American Taliban has control.

Which Romney and Palin are prominent members of.

[moondust]

60. And the "close race" corporate media narrative begins. n/t

[andym]

62. He's finally losing mainstream liberal support

because of the tax cuts for the wealthy issue.

He obviously lost much of the ultra liberal support (eg, DU) earlier, but that is a small percentage (5-10%) of total liberal support.

[mmonk]

63. Even after he passed his healthcare bill, he would lose to him?

[Scurrilous]

64. Holy Crap Kick

:kick:

[GeorgeGist]

67. Not Holy ...

just Country.

[nashville_brook]

68. Country crap?

[Orsino]

69. Sure. All it would take is moving Election Day...

...and believing in hypothetical polls.

[nashville_brook]

75. these sorts of polls are useful for determining trends, they're not literal.

[democrat2thecore]

70. And this poll was before the press conference debacle - he looked weak & pathetic - and then walked

IMO, he already knows he has no intention of seeking re-election. I honestly believe he hates the job.