Elections to Watch in 2009

[Judi Lynn]

Elections to Watch in 2009
By David Kenner Page 1 of 2

Posted January 2009

Who will be sitting across the table from Barack Obama after 2009?

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Bolivia

Date: Jan. 25, 2009 and Dec. 6, 2009

Who's running: A constitutional referendum supported by president Evo Morales and opposed by governors of Bolivia's eastern states

What's at stake: Bolivians will go to the polls on Jan. 25 for a referendum on a new national constitution. Championed by President Evo Morales, the new constitution would empower Bolivia's indigenous majority and increase state control over the economy. Reforms will establish a limit on the size of large land holdings and provide for the redistribution of revenues from Bolivia's gas fields. The referendum is fiercely opposed by Bolivians in the wealthier, gas-rich eastern regions, many of whom are of European or mixed-race descent. Tensions have occasionally spilled into violence, as anti-Morales protesters seized government offices and launched a series of strikes in August.

Nevertheless, observers expect the constitution to gain the support of a majority of voters. Assuming that occurs, early elections will by held on Dec. 6, 2009 for president, vice-president, and congress. If Morales wins both contests, he will have cemented his legacy on Bolivian politics. Expect the governors of Bolivia's four eastern states to actively campaign against Morales in both elections.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Mexico

Date: July 5, 2009

Who's Running: The National Action Party (PAN), the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD), and the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI)

What's at stake: The term of President Felipe Calderón, the leader of PAN, has been marked by an increasingly aggressive, increasingly bloody, and increasingly controversial war against Mexico's powerful drug cartels. Drug violence claimed nearly 5,000 lives in 2008.

The legislative elections will determine whether Calderón maintains support in the Chamber of Deputies to continue his drug war. In the 2006 elections, PAN claimed 206 out of the 500 total seats in the Chamber of Deputies, while the leftist PRD won 127 seats. The PRD has been critical of Calderón's confrontational approach, and has called for a "National Agreement to Combat Organized Crime," which would include a discussion on the legalization of drugs. If the PAN emerges victorious, Calderón will have a free hand to continue his prosecution of the drug war. If the PRD gains strength, he may find himself hamstrung by a hostile legislature.

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