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Yes, the Resistance movement will surely convert to the Constituent Assembly movement. In fact, that's been the issue for them all along. Initially, the long standing Constituent Assembly movement--consisting of labor unions, human rights activists, religious advocates of the poor, community organizers and others--turned into the Resistance when the coup occurred.
And the golpistas will recede behind the curtain, with their local and imported death squads, and continue to try to pick off members of the Resistance/Constituent Assembly movement, with impunity and with implicit US support (if not outright cash for 'heads on platters' payments).
Negroponte deja vu all over again.
This is what the Obama administration has done--given LEAVE to these murderers to CONTINUE their bloody repression.
And I'm fairly convinced that what's next is Vietnam deja vu all over again. 'Just a few hundred military advisors' in Colombia (with no limit on their number), for the "war on drugs" (seven new US military bases in-country!), who need full diplomatic immunity for whatever they are doing, and access to all civilian airports and other facilities. Nothing to see here, move along.
Honduras was the "launching pad" for US wars in the 1980s, but the reach from there was limited (El Salvador, Nicaragua, Guatemala). Now they've added Colombia (also Panama and the 4th Fleet in the Caribbean). Much bigger theater of war. Haunting parallels to Vietnam; and similar goals--war profiteering, slaughtering leftists and, in this case, oil--a big motivator for the Pentagon and US-based global corporate predators. The real target of the repression in Honduras is Venezuela. And this is no P.R. game. ("Ha-ha on Hugo!"--Mary Degraded, of the Wall Street Urinal.) This is a Big Board game about oil.
I believe the US will lose any such war. And that will be our "Waterloo," at long last--after half a century of killing leftist democrats all over the world, and creating nothing but mayhem and oppression. We did some good with the Marshall Plan, in the decade after WW II, but that was it. Everything else the US government has done has been in the service of the war profiteers we failed to demobilize after WW II and our ever-growing monster corporate predators.
Where does this leave the Honduran people? At "ground zero" like the Colombian people in US Oil War II. I think the US military buildup in the region is going to include a buildup in Honduras. That was devastating to the Honduran people the last time it occurred. But the political landscape in Latin America has dramatically changed since then--for the better. The people of Honduras are not alone.
Things happened too fast in Honduras, I'm afraid. That may have been one of the purposes of this precipitous and--on the surface--unnecessary coup. Zelay had only six months left to his term, and absolutely was NOT trying to extend his term. The coup catapulted the Constituent Assembly movement into an acute crisis, overnight. They have had to suddenly deal with death squad murders and imprisonment and all the rest. They haven't had the longer, slower development of grass roots activism that we've seen in Bolivia, for instance, and Nicaragua, and every other country, really. They need to do that now--but in quite difficult conditions. It looks to me like they had a 60% to 70% boycott of the election--a truly great achievement in martial law conditions. They now need to do something even greater, which is to rally the country for reform with the golpistas still in power and possibly in the midst of a US buildup to a war against Venezuela, and probably simultaneous (or preliminary) "dirty wars" against their neighbor countries.
But there is a lot more political savvy, unity and leftist political power throughout Latin America now than during the 1980s Reagan horrors. The OAS will likely help them with their constitutional movement. Brazil, Venezuela, Chile, Ecuador, Uruguay, Paraguay, Argentina, Bolivia, El Salvador, Nicaragua and Guatemala have whips to crack over the Lobo regime--its illegitimacy, non-recognition of its 'election,' ostracism and economic sanctions. They can use these whips to help the Honduran people--to alleviate repression and create some space for democratic organizing.
The problem (of restoring and improving Honduran democracy) may be made yet more difficult--if not impossible--by a US war in the region. Whatever "hawks vs doves" discussion may have occurred within the Obama administration (out of the earshot of the people of the US--but just barely audible to those of us following things closely, as Obama wobbled like a drunk between demagoguery/the Monroe Doctrine and talk of peace and cooperation, in his public statements), the "hawks" seem to have won. The corporate predators and war profiteers running things here seem to have concluded that they can't crack Latin American democracy and its new solidarity on notions of sovereignty and independence, without bloodshed.
However, all things considered, my guess is that this war won't happen for a couple of years. It could happen tomorrow (with a 'Gulf of Tonkin'-type incident on the Colombia-Venezuela border--say, in conjunction with getting the Colombia-US military agreement through Congress, no questions asked; and with no limit on troop deployments, bang, we're in). But--given the "surge" in Afghanistan, US bankruptcy, and the need for the Pentagon to get its bases set up in Colombia and get our immunized troops and 'contractors' jungle-ready with some turkey shoots of FARC guerrillas and peasant farmers--I'm thinking two years, and maybe their Diebolding a bloodythirsty fascist into the White House, before it's a "go." And this may mean that there is time for the Honduran people to get their democracy back and some control over their situation, backed up by the leftist leadership of the region.
Things could fall apart in the US, too. The US is in such precarious shape in so many ways. Zip election transparency. Rightwing corps in charge of vote counting, with 'TRADE SECRET' code everywhere in the US. Banksters looting us, hand over fist. Bush, Cheney and Rumsfeld running around free. Corpo-fascist media gone bonkers. Great Depression conditions in many communities. And on and on. Our corporate rulers could suffer the fate of the Tsar during WW I (the foolishness and mass slaughter of that war was his downfall), if they dare to drag us into an oil war in South America, especially against people (like the Vietnamese) motivated by their passion for independence.
Tragic how the US calls its great democratic holiday "Independence Day" when that is the last thing in the world that the US wants other people to achieve.
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