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oil--would involve disabling Venezuela/Ecuador's allies prior to hostilities, not necessarily invading them but instigating disorder (like another white separatist uprising in Bolivia--which has already been rehearsed--or the sea access dispute with Peru, a U.S. client state--or in alliance with Brazilian smugglers and paramilitaries)-- distracting these allies, exhausting their resources, making it hard for them to come to Venezuela/Ecuador's aid. Such a war could well see Bolivia providing significant aid to Venezuela/Ecuador, including troops. What I'm saying is that I suspect that this is what is on Morales' mind--not just localized disorder but localized disorder in the context of a U.S./Colombia war on Venezuela/Ecuador--disorder aimed at crippling Bolivia's ability to aid Venezuela/Ecuador if the U.S. instigates a shooting war. Bolivia needs to be prepared for both.
Of course he wouldn't SAY this. But it is quite interesting, for instance, what Lula da Silva said, when the Bush Junta reconstituted the 4th Fleet in the Caribbean. He said that it is "a threat to Brazil's oil"--and proposed that South America create a common defense in the context of UNASUR. Can anyone seriously believe that the U.S. would attack Brazil? He was talking about Venezuela, which everyone south of the border knows is a U.S. target, and perhaps the potential impacts on Brazil if the U.S. instigates a regional war. (If Brazil comes to Venezuela's aid, then Brazil's oil is also threatened.)
We may be seeing evidence of a U.S. war plan for dealing with Venezuela/Ecuador's allies, in operation already, with the rightwing coup in Honduras, which was directly aided by the Pentagon and indirectly by the State Department. The U.S. was looking at a solid block of leftist governments in Central America--right up the peninsula: Nicaragua, Honduras, El Salvador, Guatemala--none of whom would support a U.S. military move on Venezuela/Ecuador. President Zelaya had not only allied with Venezuela in the ALBA trade group, he had proposed conversion of the U.S. air base in Honduras to a commercial airport. U.S. war assets in Honduras were threatened. The U.S. moved to knock out an ally--Honduras. With Zelaya as president, Honduras would not have cooperated with a U.S. military move on Venezuela.
There are economic issues as well, of course. Zelaya had raised the minimum wage in this very poor country--an offense to the U.S. corporate sweatshop operators in Honduras. John McCain had interests in privatizing Honduran telecommunications. (He was deeply involved in the Honduran coup.) The Honduran military's U.S. gravy train was threatened should Honduras go the way of, say, Ecuador, and kick the U.S. military out of the country. Lots of money involved. But the Pentagon's behavior with regard to Zelaya's kidnapping raises additional questions--on top of economic and war profiteering. It raises strategic questions, that is, protection of war assets for war purposes. The plane carrying the kidnapped president of Honduras out of the country at gunpoint stopped at the U.S. air base in Honduras for refueling (the very air base that Zelaya wanted to convert to a commercial airport, badly needed in Honduras). What were the U.S. commanders at this air base doing as Honduras' democracy was destroyed--playing video games? Maybe, by sitting on their hands while this occurred, they were just acting in support of corporate interests, but, given Honduras' traditional role as the steppingstone for U.S. aggression in the region, it is a very legitimate question to ask, how important would the USAF and USN facilities in Honduras be, to air and sea hostilities against Venezuela/Ecuador and to controlling the leftist governments in Nicaragua, El Salvador and Guatemala, in a war on Venezuela/Ecuador? And was this the main reason that U.S. commanders let the plane refuel and fly out of their base?
The U.S. is directly funding the worst governments in Latin America--Colombia, Honduras, Peru and others--and is actively supporting rightwing groups in countries with leftist governments, with millions of dollars in USAID and other U.S. taxpayer money pots, and God knows with what covert operations--they never tell we who are paying for it what our SECRET agencies are doing. (We've seen the detritus of some of these anti-Venezuela, anti-Ecuador ops in the press, but you have to read between the lines to figure out what's going on.) This is standard operating procedure for the U.S. government--and the Obama administration is no different from the Bush Junta in this regard. The U.S. has been unable to budge the voters of Venezuela, Ecuador or any other leftist countries with these overt and covert ops. These and other leftist governments are hugely popular and have won election after election with big majorities (--transparent elections, unlike those we have here). So is the U.S. going to add a war to these other outrages, because our corporate rulers and war profiteers can't topple these DEMOCRATIC governments by other means?
There is growing evidence that they are planning to, but, whether or not they do, we can be sure that faraway, landlocked Bolivia, tucked into the heart of South America, is somewhere on the dart board of the Pentagon--should Oil War II be given a go--and has been on the dart board of the State Department and the CIA for some time, as to sabotage short of outright war. (The white separatist insurrection in 2008 was funded/organized right out of the U.S. embassy, and Evo Morales threw the U.S. ambassador and the DEA out of Bolivia, because of it.)
Evo Morales is well aware of all of this, and is very likely taking it all into consideration in decisions to beef up the Bolivian military.
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