"Polls, Damned Polls and the Truth About Venezuela"

[VioletLake]

Excerpt:

The problem then, as now, was that the US press colluded with the government to create massive lie which few dared challenge. So as not to perpetuate that lie, that “none of us knew what we know now,” it’s important to point out that truly independent, brave and critical writers and analysts on the left, and, to their credit, the libertarian right at www.antiwar.com , did their best to speak out and be heard. But those voices, as we all know, were excluded from the corporate press. The lie was, again, “most obvious to an outsider” and many reverted to getting their news about the war from the foreign press.

By contrast with what might be called a totalitarian unanimity of the dominant US media (if we agree that conservatives and liberals, behind the curtain, are, in fact, on the same side), in Venezuela the media is divided and quite diverse, as is public opinion. For one thing, Venezuelans have far more daily newspapers in opposition to the government than those supporting Chavez. Diario Vea is the only pro-government daily in the country, and its size and circulation is dwarfed by any one of the large corporate papers like El Nacional or Universal. Vea is rarely found outside of the major urban centers while the corporate press still finds its way into the remotest corners of the country. Pro-government opinion is carried into the countryside by one or more of a few television channels or, more likely, by community radio stations which have grown exponentially under Chavez. This range of opinion and competition of ideas, coupled with dramatic increases in funding for education under the Chavez government, has inculcated in the Venezuelan public a rare critical consciousness.

http://www.counterpunch.org/ross09092010.html

[naaman fletcher]

1. It's impossible to tell until the vote..

but my guess is that just like here the right is making things seem worse than they are.

[Judi Lynn]

2. Great article, already bookmarked this one right away. Appreciated the states

in the following paragraph:

As Mark Weisbrot and Rebecca Ray point out in their recent report, “Update on the Venezuelan Economy,” even though Venezuela followed the rest of the world into recession in 2009, its “economy grew by an estimated 5.2 percent in the second quarter of 2010, on an annualized basis.” More significantly, Weisbrot and Ray go on, in the prior economic expansion under Chavez “poverty was reduced by 47 percent and extreme poverty by 70 percent. Real social spending per person tripled, and there were greatly expanded public programs in health care and education; unemployment fell by half and there were large gains in employment.” Also, “according to a recent report by the UN Economic Commission on Latin America, Venezuela had the sharpest reduction in inequality in the Americas during this expansion.”

Mark Weisbrot is excellent, respected totally as someone who knows what he's doing.

I had to go get the link to their whole article. Here it is:

Update on the Venezuelan Economy
by Mark Weisbrot and Rebecca Ray
Executive Summary:

After nearly six years of record economic growth, the Venezuelan economy went into recession in the first quarter of 2009, shrinking by 3.3 percent that year. A number of analysts see this as the end of an "oil boom" and the beginning of a long period of recession and stagnation.

For example, in June, Morgan Stanley drastically cut its forecast for GDP growth in Venezuela to negative 6.2 percent in 2010 and negative 1.2 percent for 2011. And the IMF projects that the Venezuelan economy will contract by 2.6 percent for 2010 and grow by less than 1.4 percent annually over the next five years1 -- i.e. negative per capita GDP growth.

However, the most prominent forecasts for the Venezuelan economy have been wrong in the past, often by enormous margins. This was especially true for Venezuela's most recent economic expansion, where the IMF underestimated Venezuela's growth for the four consecutive years 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2007, by 10.6, 6.8, 5.4, and 4.7 percentage points, respectively.

This update looks at the most recent data on the Venezuelan economy, in an attempt to evaluate its prospects in the foreseeable future.

More:
http://mrzine.monthlyreview.org/2010/wr040910.html

Thanks!

[naaman fletcher]

4. weisbrot has a good track record.

It's worth noting that the Venezuelan government however is not as optimistic as he is. But then again that is why economics is the dismal science. Anyway, we will know in a few months.

[Judi Lynn]

3. Recommending. #1.

:kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: