The Chávez Administration at 10 Years: The Economy and Social Indicators

[Peace Patriot]

This February 2009 report on Venezuela may have been posted here before. If so, I am repeating it because there is SO MUCH DISINFORMATION about Venezuela in the corpo-fascist press and on this board. Disinformationists give you tidbits, never the whole picture. Disinformationists distort and lie about even the little tidbits they may give you. Disinformationists quote corpo-fascist 'news' sources with all of their distortions, lies and 'black holes' where information should be. We need to consult alternative sources of information to get a full view of Venezuela. This is a very good one.

The report states, in its Introduction, that it "relies on data that are not in dispute." This is confirmed by Millennium Project and other reports.

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The Chávez Administration at 10 Years: 
The Economy and Social Indicators  

Mark Weisbrot, Rebecca Ray and Luis Sandoval 
 
February 2009

For the full report in its original PDF format, click here (255kb): http://www.cepr.net/documents/publications/venezuela-2009-02.pdf

Executive Summary

This paper from February 2009 looks at some of the most important economic and social indicators during the 10 years of the Chávez administration in Venezuela, as well as the current economic expansion. It also looks at the current situation and challenges.

Among the highlights:

--The current economic expansion began when the government got control over the national oil company in the first quarter of 2003. Since then, real (inflation-adjusted) GDP has nearly doubled, growing by 94.7 percent in 5.25 years, or 13.5 percent annually.

--Most of this growth has been in the nonoil sector of the economy, and the private sector has grown faster than the public sector.

--During the current economic expansion, the poverty rate has been cut by more than half, from 54 percent of households in the first half of 2003 to 26 percent at the end of 2008. Extreme poverty has fallen even more, by 72 percent. These poverty rates measure only cash income, and does take into account increased access to health care or education.

--Over the entire decade, the percentage of households in poverty has been reduced by 39 percent, and extreme poverty by more than half.

--Inequality, as measured by the Gini index, has also fallen substantially. The index has fallen to 41 in 2008, from 48.1 in 2003 and 47 in 1999. This represents a large reduction in inequality.

--Real (inflationadjusted) social spending per person more than tripled from 1998-2006.

--From 1998-2006, infant mortality has fallen by more than onethird. The number of primary care physicians in the public sector increased 12fold from 1999-2007, providing health care to millions of Venezuelans who previously did not have access.

--There have been substantial gains in education, especially higher education, where gross enrollment rates more than doubled from 1999/2000 to 2007/2008.

--The labor market also improved substantially over the last decade, with unemployment dropping from 11.3 percent to 7.8 percent. During the current expansion it has fallen by more than half. Other labor market indicators also show substantial gains.

--Over the past decade, the number of social security beneficiaries has more than doubled.

--Over the decade, the government's total public debt has fallen from 30.7 to 14.3 percent of GDP. The foreign public debt has fallen even more, from 25.6 to 9.8 percent of GDP.

--Inflation is about where it was 10 years ago, ending the year at 31.4 percent. However it has been falling over the last half year (as measured by three month averages) and is likely to continue declining this year in the face of strong deflationary pressures worldwide.


The current situation and challenges:

Venezuela's most important immediate challenge is, as for most countries, the world economic recession. This affects Venezuela's economy mainly through oil prices, which have fallen about 70 percent from their July peak last year. At oil prices below $45 per barrel (for Venezuelan oil), Venezuela would begin to run a current account deficit. However, because Venezuela has an estimated $82 billion in reserves, it could finance a modest current account deficit for some time - e.g. even if oil prices were to remain at their current depressed levels for the next two years. But economists and the futures markets are not predicting oil prices to remain at current levels for that long: futures markets are pricing oil at above $60 per barrel in December 2010.

With balance of payments constraints unlikely, Venezuela's main challenge in the near future will be to come up with an adequate fiscal stimulus package. Over the intermediate run, it will also want to adjust its exchange rate to a more a competitive level, in order to diversify its economy away from oil. However, because of its ample reserves, the government is unlikely to suffer a forced devaluation in the foreseeable future.



Introduction

Hugo Chávez Frías was first elected president of Venezuela in December 1998 and took office ten years ago, in February of 1999. Chávez is a controversial figure, and most discussion of his tenure is polarized or otherwise ideological, and mostly negative. This paper looks briefly at some of the most important economic and social indicators over the last decade, and also at the current situation and challenges. It relies on data that are not in dispute. Some of the most important data have been largely unreported, although they are publicly available.

(MORE)

http://venezuelanalysis.com/indicators
(Fair Use License)
(My emphasis)

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One important indicator of a socially vibrant country that is not mentioned in this paper is Venezuela's honest, above-board, internationally certified, TRANSPARENT election system, so I am mentioning it, because, to me, it is the key to everything else. If you have a vote counting system that can be audited--as Venezuela has and as half the states in the U.S. do NOT have--and one that IS adequately audited--as occurs in Venezuela and does NOT occur in the other states in the U.S.--then you have the bottom line condition necessary to electing a "New Deal" government like the Chavez government. This is also the bottom-line condition for democracy itself.

The rightwing coup d'etat that is occurring here in the U.S. is directly related to the corporate takeover and privatization of our vote counting system, which is now done by electronic machines run on 'TRADE SECRET,' PROPRIETARY programming code--code that you and I are forbidden by law to review--largely (80%) owned and controlled by ONE, private, far rightwing-connected corporation--ES&S, which just bought out Diebold--with virtually no audit/recount controls. This far rightwing control over the voting machine results is combined with the corpo-fascist news machine's political 'narrative' of rightwing 'victory' and out-of-control, filthy corporate campaign money, to DEFEAT the will of the majority in this country.

Venezuela also uses electronic voting, but it is an OPEN SOURCE CODE system--anyone may review the code by which the votes are tabulated--and they do a whopping 55% audit of the machine totals--more than five times the minimum needed to detect fraud in an electronic system. In the U.S., half the states do a completely inadequate 1% audit and the other half DO NO AUDIT AT ALL--in a PRIVATIZED system!

The Chavez government is not an "ideal" government. It has many flaws. And Venezuela is certainly no "paradise." Many problems remain to be solved. But neither was FDR's government an "ideal" government. And neither has the U.S. ever been a "paradise." My point is: WHAT IS THE GOVERNMENT AIMED AT? The will of the people or the will of multinational corporations and war profiteers?

The above stats and report CLEARLY INDICATE that the Chavez government has been aiming for the right things--poverty reduction, education, bootstrapping of the poor, use of the country's resources to benefit the people who live there, responsiveness to real needs, sovereignty, democracy, equality and empowerment of the people.

And where is the U.S. government aimed? At "compromise" with bigots and corporate shills. At "squeezing" the poor to enrich the rich. At MORE poverty and homelessness. At continuing to outsource manufacturing and jobs to the cheapest labor markets abroad. At fattening a bloated war machine--all at the expense of education, public services, reasonable and simple health care for all and what should be happening right now, a massive government jobs program such as FDR instituted. Whatever Obama might have wanted to do, and whatever the American people wanted him to do, has been rendered "impossible" by the Bushwhack Grand Looting, by the "military-industrial complex" and by ES&S!

The contrast with Venezuela couldn't be more stark. The Chavez government has addressed poverty head on and done something about it while the U.S. government stands helpless, and hamstrung, before a tide of poverty not seen since the Great Depression. Why is this so? Really, look to the voting machines. That is the place to start recovering our democracy.

One more thing--for those whose heads are stuck in the corpo-fascist 'news' delusion: The rightwing also called FDR a "dictator."

[Judi Lynn]

1. Kicking, rec. The time during inflation has secured deep changes. It wasn't dead time.

Venezuela has had to start from within a deep hole in creating liveable conditions for the vast majority of Venezuelans who had been kicked to the curb by the idiot racist oligarchs long, long ago.

May they continue to progress forever, no matter WHAT the fascists do to regain control of their lives again, and return them all to the desperate times they have been struggling HARD to put behind them from the 1980's.

The people have sworn they will never allow another Caracazo massacre of the poor, never again.