Petro has the advantage of having broken with the party line before the scandal that disgraced Mayor Samuel Moreno, which allows him to rack up a lot of support from dissenting progressives, but this same reason makes him an unlikely choice for the more orthodox and disciplined sectors within the Polo Democrático Alternativo (PDA), including many who preferred to back Moreno until the end.
At the same time, Petro still has to deal with problem of peaking a little too early and having his guerrilla past as an easy target for the right's paranoia. At this moment that doesn't seem to be a problem, but it is certain to become more of an issue later on, for better or for worse.
In the meanwhile, the PDA's own official candidate, whom I don't really know much about myself, isn't particularly strong and probably won't come close to matching Petro, but he's sure to take away at least a number of votes. He might even be a decent choice, after hearing his proposals and programs, but he definitely lacks public recognition compared to Petro.
And, of course, we are only talking about strictly political matters here. Nobody knows what else will happen from now to October.
Here is a brief but relevant article:
Opposition party selects newcomer as Bogota mayoral candidate
Wednesday, 20 July 2011 08:21
Matt Snyder
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Aurelio Suarez Montoya, an engineer from Bogota, was selected by the PDA to run as the party's candidate in the fall elections.
Montoya has not held many political positions since 1994, when he served on the assembly of the tiny Risaralda department.
He is a member of the PDA's national executive committe, and has worked as a consultant and a university professor. Montoya is also the current social coordinator for the National Association for Agricultural Salvation.
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The PDA has recently faced difficulty in Bogota, as suspended PDA mayor Samuel Moreno has been accused of participation in a public transportation corruption scandal. The PDA has discussed removing Moreno from their party.
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http://colombiareports.com/colombia-news/news/17761-opposition-party-selects-political-newcomer-as-bogota-mayoral-candidate.html