Capriles has higher popularity than Chavez, but popularity polls, particularly this far from an election, are a joke. Capriles is so popular because he gets things done and he's not right wing (he's far left of Obama whom gets a lot of crap on DU). Look at Capriles'
http://twitter.com/#!/HCapriles">recent twitter comments against sectarianism (his platform is unity and he would likely have a mix of Chavistas and opposition people in his cabinet). His blog goes into it
http://henriquecapriles.wordpress.com/2011/07/24/un-equipo-un-pais/">even more. This is a direct response to Capriles' rhetoric, which does not particularly bode well for Chavez' confidence, imho.
Chavez has won so many times playing
against the middle class and the wealthy in Venezuela (go watch "X Ray of a Lie" to see his statements against them, or just watch a "chain" from any time from a month ago until 2002). If this is really his new position and it's not the chemo working a toll on him it's a very significant political move, but also dangerous, as it could lead to his constituents who love the anti-class rhetoric moving away from him (but since they have no alternative that can get ugly).
I've been watching the Venezuelan elections since they're like the 2008 elections here, starting really early and pushing hard. It's stemming the tide until our elections kick up. One thing is for sure, 2012 is going to be a really fun year for political observation (and some canvasing, too; but I won't be dishonest, I'm better at observing than canvasing).