CA-19: Radanovich Retires

[ccharles000]

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/6096/ca19-radanovich-retires

Politico:

Rep. George Radanovich (R-Calif.) will be announcing this afternoon today that he won't be seeking re-election, according to a senior GOP source.

His chief of staff, Ted Maness, told POLITICO the congressman would be releasing a statement at 2:00 EST, but declined to confirm that he'll be retiring. <...>

Republicans comprise 44 percent of registered voters, while Democrats make up 37 percent, and 14 percent decline to affiliate themselves with a party.

Fresno Mayor Jim Patterson, a political ally of Radanovich, is expected to run for the Republican nomination in the district.

This is the first Republican retirement of the 2010 cycle -- which is kind of amazing after the mass exodus of Republicans from Congress to the retirement manors of Florida over the past two cycles. I suppose we took care of most of the low-hanging fruit.

Radanovich's seat isn't prime territory for a pick-up. However, although its PVI is R+9, Barack Obama dramatically improved upon the old Democratic baseline in the district, losing the CD by only 52-46 to John McCain. Compare that to John Kerry's flattening here by a 61-38 margin four years earlier. A good deal of that shift can be attributed to the demographic changes occurring within the district, which has seen a marked increase in its minority population since 2000. Those demographic gains haven't reached the tipping point here yet, but this district could be susceptible to a bit of nipping and tucking in the next round of redistricting in order to hasten that process.