Could anyone beat Obama in a primary challenge?

[mkultra]

Poll question: Could anyone beat Obama in a primary challenge?

IM not talking about the fantastic possibilities produced from the minds of those who occupy the altered state of druggachusettes. Im mean a real chance to beat him.

[FrenchieCat]

1. Would hurt Democrats in a general election......

and that is the one that counts.

[liberal N proud]

14. Primaries are brutal

and they tear parties apart.

[Avalux]

2. R u fer real?

Series?1?? :eyes:

[YOY]

3. Seeing as how the big campaign money won't go to a challenger...no.

n.t.

[Wapsie B]

8. That's right. The party would leave a challenger twisting in the wind.

I've seen it done at the state level before.

[depakid]

4. You never know...

Eugene McCarthy "beat" Johnson....

[FrenchieCat]

5. No...we do know...

we know that Democrats would lose the general election if Obama was challenged and lost.

You see, McCarthy wasn't the first African-American President who had inherited a big giant
fucked up mess, and had been consistently and unreasonably dissed starting January 21, 2009.

Obama ain't the nominee = automatic loss of whomever the D replacement would be.

Believe me.

[depakid]

22. That's funny seeing as how YOU have been one of those critical about others

"seeing the future" and all of that.

At least, when the matter involves anything that might be disparaging to- or portent an unfavorable result re: the president.

Here's a clue: such things DO happen- and history is replete with them.

[mkultra]

6. so, lets hear from the YES votes. come on folks, dont be shy

[tabatha]

7. hear from the

[JuniperLea]

9. I'm curious too..

:popcorn:

[Mz Pip]

10. I would be real curious

not only to hear why they think Obama could lose in a primary but who he could lose to.

[mdmc]

16. 2012 is a long time away

Who knows what the political landscape might look like in 2012.
I mean, who would have ever thought that Eliot Spitzer would not be elected in 2010. 70% approval rating + huge dem majority + one major scandal = no re-election.

[Name removed]

13. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[jefferson_dem]

19. This is a time when I wish we could see the names of the Unreccers.

I want to know who the fools are.

[depakid]

25. Anyone who votes "NO" is a fool- for the simple reason that

2 years is an eternity in politics- and in the present volatile circumstances, there are more things that could bring this president down than most times throughout history.

One tendency that's been observed for a while now is conflict aversion- which may well be a major failing in a time when people are looking for and need a fighter. If the American economy tanks hard again- and if Wall Street and the corrupt corporate interests continue to get their way- at the expense of ordinary Americans, all bets are off.

[geek tragedy]

33. Wishful thinking.

Sorry, but your dreams of destroying the Obama administration will require you to pull a Hamsher.

[Imagevision]

41. Look what Bush inherited - then think about what Obama stepped into...

[grantcart]

61. I voted yes

I think its important to support good comedy at the amatuer level

[mkultra]

62. lol

[mdmc]

11. I can't see any reason he would lose, but I felt the same way re: Spitzer

ya never know what people might do..

[Mz Pip]

30. Spitzer didn't lose

He resigned.

If Obama resigned for some reason then there would be a primary in 2012. I just so see the Dems doing a repeat of 1980 when Kennedy challenged Carter. Perhaps if Carter didn't have that primary challenge he would have weathered his re-election efforts and beat Reagan.

[jmowreader]

34. Carter couldn't have beaten Reagan in 1980

Jimmy Carter had three things going against him: a bad economy, the Iran Hostage Crisis and a challenger running on the idea he could fix the economic crisis by cutting taxes. (And let's not forget the fact that in October 1980, George HW Bush flew to Iran to negotiate with the Ayatollah: keep the hostages until Reagan is sworn in and we will supply you with weapons.)

[Hippo_Tron]

36. Carter was tied with Reagan until the debate a week before the election

And that was because the Carter campaign was very effectively portraying Reagan as a crazy warmonger. Had Reagan not been good on television and dispelled those fears, Carter might've squeaked by like Bush did in 2004. Anderson didn't help either.

[Mz Pip]

42. I remember the Democrats

dismissed Reagan as a lightweight ex actor, and not very bright.

the GOP is filled with potenital candidates just like that today. Why make it any harder for Obama to defeat them?

If we still have a bad economy, 2 wars and a republican candidate whose solution to everything is tax cuts... Well, there you go.

[jmowreader]

50. And that's a big problem...

Whether we have a bad economy and two wars in 2012 is an open question, but ALL Republicans believe tax cuts are the solution to everything.

[mkultra]

51. i didnt ask if you thought Obama woudl sleep with a prosty

but thanks for your prediction.

[Enrique]

12. things would have to change a lot

right now Obama has solid support in the polls, rising support actually. And no public person is challenging him seriously.

[zipplewrath]

15. No money

I strongly suspect that the White House and Rahm could ensure that no real money flowed their way, especially early on. For all the money Obama raised, much of the early money came from the "usual" sources.

The only real purpose for a primary challenge is to "force" him to move left. All in all not a bad idea. Unfortunately there aren't many RFK or Teddys around to mount much of a serious challenge.

[mdmc]

23. imho, it doesn't need to be a serious challenge

the leftist ideals only need to be put out there. While we might think that these ideals are 40 years too late, perhaps mainstream (media) America might think that these leftist ideals might be common in ten years, or next year.

End the drug war
End torture
End our foreign wars of convenience
Socialize health treatment
A fair tax for the rich
A fair wage
Civil rights for all..

Sure the ideas may be unpopular, but all good noble ideals were unpopular at one time. It takes a visionary to advocate what is unpopular but right.

Look at reproductive health, equal rights, taxation without representation.. all ideas that were ahead of their time..

If the primary forces Obama to the left, good. If the primary encourages Obama to stay center right, oh well. Obama will win either way. At least with a primary, we will get to see some real solutions instead of cash for clunker solutions.

[zipplewrath]

27. No media attention

Without money, he'd just be another Ron Paul. The butt of jokes and the "oddball quote" of the night on Countdown.

[mdmc]

29. honestly, it is too soon to tell what the media will cover

just for example -
I think that 2010 will be a wash or a GOP gain. Perhaps a huge GOP gain, but I think that it will be a wash, all in all.
I think that Obama will win re-election no doubt 2012. No idea if we will gain, hold, or lose in 2012 otherwise.
Ron Paul got some coverage.
Perhaps by 2012 corporate media will need a left challenge to pimp for ratings. If it is an Obama blowout from the start the media will need a story - perhaps our issues could be that story.

it is too early to tell..

[lamp_shade]

17. Hell No.

[jefferson_dem]

18. No fringe challenger to Obama will get more than 100 delegates.

Doubt me? Let's bet. Loser pays $100 to DU.

[Lord Helmet]

20. Chances are slim to none.

[LiberalFighter]

21. Probably not but that wouldn't stop fools from trying.

That would all depend on the events in 2012.

[onehandle]

24. No. nt

[TexasProgresive]

26. And the WH would go to a 'puke n/t

[slackmaster]

28. It's either James Traficant or nobody

[styersc]

31. If this year is evidence, he'll give in if he is challenged.

So, sure, it could happen.

[IndianaGreen]

32. Gene McCarthy did not beat Johnson in the 1968 NH primary, but came close enough

to make an impact. LBJ dropped out shortly after, not so much because of the McCarthy challenge, but because he wanted to put all of his energies on a peace deal in Vietnam.

For an incumbent President to lose to a primary challenger, it would take something catastrophic to happen, so much so that the nomination would be worthless to whoever wins it.

Challenging an incumbent President is more of a symbolic exercise which at best, may push the incumbent to change policies.

[Hippo_Tron]

37. Another thing is that the campaigning starts earlier and earlier now

I once heard Pat Buchanan speak and he talked about his 1992 challenge to Bush I. Part of the strategy was predicated on the fact that Bush would not even bother campaigning against him. He figured if he upset him in New Hampshire and gained momentum from that, he could run away with the nomination before Bush had a chance to mobilize his campaign.

But these days the election cycles are starting earlier and earlier and Obama's campaign will be up and running by primary time even if he doesn't anticipate a serious challenge.

[mkultra]

63. its an excerise in futility

and just wastes time and money.

[smalll]

35. A challenger may be able to "win" in a few states by gaming the system

and picking up victories in mickey-mouse caucuses, bussing in some iPod kids, etc. but beyond that? No.

:evilgrin:

[Raine]

38. I doubt it

I wouldn't mind seeing someone try, just to get the fire into Obama but no one can beat him IMO.

[Vidar]

39. If he continues to fail at his present rate, yes.

[white_wolf]

40. Possilbly

Al Gore? I don't know ive just always been a fan.

[liquid diamond]

43. No. Most people talking shit here would just vote against

Obama as a symbolic gesture.

[jesus_of_suburbia]

44. Yes, but only if the economy is doing bad.

... and I don't think it will be doing bad 2 years from now.

nothing else will matter as far as voters are concerned

[Hekate]

45. Split the Dem votes and hand the WH back to the Repubs on a silver platter. Swell idea.

NOT.

Hekate

[Ozymanithrax]

46. If they can raise $745 million dollars...

The Challanger would not have the backing of the Democratic party in fund raising or organization. The cost of the primary and the election are enormous, and will probalby top 1 billion, much higher than Obama's $745 million.

I can see someone like Kucinich or Nader mounting a primary challange, but they won't go anywhere.

[saltpoint]

47. The current picture is discouraging for any would-bes against the

incumbent.

Smart money, IMO, would favor the president's renomination.

[Kltpzyxm]

48. if he keeps alienating progressives

then yes

[Fruittree]

49. I'm sorry but..

I consider myself progressive and I like the job he's doing.. and don't feel in the least alienated..

[robo50]

59. Well, I'm more of a leftst LIBERAL than simply "progressive" and I feel

a bit compromised by Obama's caving in to Republicans, big business, and all that.

But I don't see a better man (or woman) to take his place, even tho I'm not totally happy with him now.

[saltpoint]

53. If you took his squawking left detractors on DU out of the picture

Obama looks great, is well-positioned for 2012, is extremely well-positioned in History, and is likely to sail to renomination.

Ten minutes on DU, you'd think he burned down an orphanage on Christmas Eve.

[old mark]

52. Seeing the reception Obama gets from his own party, I can't imagine

anyone else wanting the job...he may be stuck with it.


mark

[freddie mertz]

54. Slim to impossible right now.

But who knows in three years?

Premature.

[MadBadger]

55. 26% of Poll Voters are Morons

That is 100% true.

[vinylsolution]

56. A real Progressive....

... with a Progressive agenda would stand a good chance.

Grow back that mean beard, Alan...

[robo50]

58. more than 50% of American voters feel Obama is TOO progressive

and probably 50% of Democratic primary voters disagree, but who cares?

It's all about winning with a man with a brain in his head.

Who is "a real progressive" who could do better than Dennis K.? Let's look at how well HE did last time.

Political elections are not the place for fantasies to be played out, keep that in the bedroom.

[POAS]

57. DK! n/t

[TheKentuckian]

60. Probably not but one guy might have a snowball's chance if he so choose

and that is David Plouffe. Probably the second best speech writer (after Obama) around and he I'm pretty sure is the truly innovative thinker in that crowd.

I'm not making the claim that he would or would have the faintest notion to do so but that dude has the mind, feel for conditions, and the inside knowledge to actually have an outside chance.

Hillary might have a shot if she was inclined but if that isn't the pan to the fire it would be at least turning up the flame.

One would like to think Dean would have a chance too but the pit the media has dug for him makes it seem like no dice.