What do you think the results of the 2010 house elections will be?

[jtylerpittman]

Poll question: What do you think the results of the 2010 house elections will be?

[jtylerpittman]

1. I say we have moderate losses mostly blue dog and southern seats

[Sebastian Doyle]

11. All the more reason to take them out in the primaries.

It will definitely be the "anti-incumbent" year. So if the incumbent "Democrat" deserves to lose, let them lose early to someone who can do better, rather than in November to a 'Puke who can do slightly worse.

[baldguy]

2. Congress isn't popular not because they're too liberal.

But because they're NOT LIBERAL ENOUGH!

We'll have more like Alan Grayson, and fewer like Zell Miller.

[tritsofme]

10. If I had to make one specific prediction

about a congressional race, I see Grayson losing by a huge margin in 2010.

However in general I would say you are correct, it is the frontline moderate members whose seats are in most danger.

[FrenchieCat]

3. Whatever it is, if we keep repeating it, it will ultimately come true......

We are projecting losses, and therefore that is what we will have.
Where I come from it's called self fulfilling prophecy.
I refuse to be part of that political speculation game....
because I think that between the Media and the GOP,
there are more than enough that wishes a negative outcome for the Democratic party.
Why should I participate.....at guessing, when I should be working for the exact opposite.

[levander]

6. You live in a fairy tale. n/t

[FrenchieCat]

21. Is that so? And who are you to decide? Someone special sent from above?

[vi5]

4. If the dems lose seats....

..inevitably the message that they will take away both through the media repeating it, and the actual dems in congress who live in that very same pathetic vacuum and talking points mill will be that they weren't conservative enough and that they tried too hard to push a liberal agenda.

Never mind that every piece of polling data will say the opposite and that liberal dem turnout will be dismal and that will cost the dems seats. Facts never get in the way of the village media narrative.

[quakerboy]

12. Its a lose lose, aint it

If they lose seats, the message the party power structure will take is "you were to liberal, tone it down"

IF they hold or gain seats the message the party power structure will take is "see, tacking conservative works, do it some more"

[stray cat]

5. If DU is a measure of dem enthusiasm - heavy losses for dems

[Parker CA]

7. Or the Kos post someone linked that shows 45% of dems are very unlikely or certain to not vote.

Sad stuff. I for one will never sit out and pass on voting.

[quiller4]

13. DU isn't really a measure of anything but DU. I expect small GOP gains

mostly in the south but possible also in some purple districts in the west and midwest.

[backscatter712]

17. DU is not the Democratic Party.

DU is composed of Democrats, but most Democrats are not members of DU, and the average demographics of the Democratic Party in general and the liberal blogs/forums differ by quite a bit.

[Jennicut]

26. DU is not all Dems.

Sorry, but it just is not. Support from liberal Dems in poll after poll for Obama is quite high, in the 80's.
What that means for Congress who knows.
I do think my Senator, Dodd, will be gone.

[Commie Pinko Dirtbag]

30. You wish. -nt

[ZombieHorde]

8. I have no idea, but you may have fun bookmarking this poll and then seeing how

close we were after the election.

[tritsofme]

9. My guess is that the GOP picks up 30-35 and scrambles to flip a few more Dems

to build a majority.

No prediction on their success in that effort.

[IndianaGreen]

14. Small GOP gains

which is what normally happens in midterm elections. We lose some Blue Dogs to people not afraid to say they are Republicans. No difference to the voters in those districts.

[Zynx]

15. GOP gains 17 seats on net.

We gain 4-5 of theirs. They knock off 21 or so of ours.

[backscatter712]

16. The GOP will gain a few, but they won't take the majority.

Realistically, I think the teeth-gnashing and hair-pulling will die down once the health care bill is signed, the economy will start showing more signs of improvement, and the GOP most importantly will not be able to capitalize - they're good at fear-mongering and shitting on Democrats, but after eight years of Bush, and a further year of playing Party of No, they're not going to convince a huge number of people outside of teabaggers that they have policies that make sense.

A few Southern DINOs may lose their seats, but Pelosi will remain Speaker of the House. I think all the hoopla about the GOP pulling a repeat of '94 is exaggerated.

[Blasphemer]

18. GOP either takes over the house or comes close to it. nt

[Proud Liberal Dem]

19. GOP will make some small gains and Dems will have fewer seats

but it is HIGHLY doubtful that Boehner, Cantor, et. al will be running the House next year no matter how much they try to demonize Nancy Pelosi (which they already tried to do in 2006 and again last year and it didn't work- just face it, no matter how much the Repubs dislike Pelosi, she is simply NOT as easy for them to demonize as Bill and Hillary were during Clinton's Presidency). It will be interesting to see what will happen next year. The Dems are having problems but so are the Republicans. The best thing that can happen is that the "teabaggers" will contest a lot of the Republican primaries or, even better, run as a third party- weakening the GOP candidates in the GE. As long as we get a modest turnout, we should, theoretically, be able to keep our losses light. 1994 will not IMHO be the kind of GOP "tidal wave" that they are clearly hoping it will be but we'll have to see what happens, of course.

[Independent_Voice]

20. I'm calling it right now...

GOP picks up 8 seats in the House. A net gain of only +1 in the Senate.

[Ter]

22. -25 in the House, -5 in the Senate

That's a sizable loss, but not 1994.

[old mark]

23. Dems gain a few seats in the House, after GOP spends its money

time and effort and winds up broke. GOP gets even more "pure", and shrinks accordingly, loses big in '12.

mark

[divineorder]

24. A Modest Dem Pickup

Senate: Dems take Voinovich's seat, New Hampshire has a second Dem Senator, Obama's seat is retained by a Democrat, Colorado remains Democrat, Reid hangs on by a squeaker. Crist hangs on by another hair.

Dems in the House lose only a very few seats 5-10 at the most.

The disaffection measured now will fade due to Obama's campaigning, the Dems going on the offensive, and the teabaggers kneecapping Republicans in more moderate districts and running their own band of extremists.

[old mark]

29. I'd love to see the Dems go on the offensive against someone other than ourselves -

we are our own worst enemy right now, but we can beat the GOPers if enough of us actually vote.

mark

[RepublicanElephant]

25. how do you un-freep THIS poll? nt

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

27. I don't think the responses are unreasonable...

The party in power (and with the White House) typically loses seats in the midterm election. A Republican gain of 10 seat would be about average. And at this moment, about two-thirds of the repondents are saying we should do average to better.

[onenote]

28. tell me how the economy is going to be doing by the summer/fall

too early to make anything but a guess now.

But, as a guess, based on historical trends, i'd say the Democrats will lose between 15 and 25 seats. If economy is continuing to improve and unemployment figures have started a downward move, the number will be towards the low end. If things are where they are today, or worse, look for heavier losses.