Hate to say this but I think the Republicans are gonna win huge in the midterms

[inthebrain]

PEOPLE ARE FUCKING PISSED OFF!!!!

I've never seen it like this before. Seems like it's at a point where a lot of folks feel that both parties are completely out to lunch. I don't think Republicans are gonna win cause a ton of folks are gonna head to the polls and vote for em. Quite the opposite. Lots of folks I've talked to are staying home.

[Tumbulu]

1. I don't think so (nt)

[truebrit71]

55. +1

I don't think so either..I think the tenor of the campaigns is going to sooooo down and dirty they will get folks to go and vote AGAINST them just because they are rethuglicans...

[Cosmocat]

71. Dems are going to lose seats, but it isn't going to apocolyptic ...

The teabaggers who are all up in arms aren't playing well with the R establishment, even themselves ... They are angry, but come on, these morons are R voters and never vote for Ds to begin with ...

All it really is is the jerkoffs throwing childish fits because the black D won the presidency ...

What does them being "angry" have to do with anytyhing, and again, they are as much gremlins within the R party as anything - see the NY house mess they created, see them working to take out Crist ... ect ...

The Ds had a maxed out turnout in support of BO and the Rs had a surpressed vote after Bushco, which led to the the Ds having more house seats than they really should to begin with ...

With a lower turnout and more R turnout, the Ds are going to lose some 50/50 districts and R leaning districts they have now ... Just life.

But, it won't be near what the Rs/MSM will want to make it out to be ...

[bbinacan]

2. There's still a lot of time

before the midterms. But, it doesn't look good now.

[zbdent]

40. and lots of "liberal media" ready and willing

to repeat the Right-Wing talking points ...

[DJ13]

3. Agreed

And the mandates in the HCR will only exacerbate the anger.

[HughMoran]

4. Haven't seen this posted lately

No, seriously, I'm not being sarcastic! Honest!

[FrenchieCat]

65. inthebrain past predictions......

Discussing Veep selection.... :rofl:

inthebrain (1000+ posts) Fri Aug-22-08 03:18 PM
Original message
Why I think it won't be Biden. (This is based on Media Speculation not really my own)
Ok. this for those that are so worried about "what the right is going to say". I don't buy any of it as I don't think we should run this party based on what the guys who want us to lose are going to say.

Now here's the big BUT!!!!!

1) Biden has stated in his presidential run that the job of president requires "experience" and you can't learn "on the job". The Republicans are already running on the ideas expressed here and attacking Obama on it.

2) Biden stated in 04 that McCain should be Kerry's running mate. When asked if he had a second choice Biden responded "absolutely NO!!!".

I just caught some of this on CNN. I don't watch the news and broke my vow to avoid that shit at all costs.

I have other reasons why I think it won't be him and it will be someone else. Mostly because I don't think the presidential runs of the two were harmonius. Obama has sworn not to take money from corporation and the other candidates did. Obama takes a candidate that's received corporate money that will absolutely devastate his campaign and contradict his message.

So that scratches Clinton, Bayh, Biden and a lot of others.

He also said he wants someone that can stay out of the news and offer debate. So I suppose that leaves some grey area.

---------------------

inthebrain (1000+ posts) Sun Sep-07-08 11:36 AM
Response to Original message
17. THe poster does have a point
Obama;s campaign seems to be stuck in the same claptrap right now that Kerry's was.

You can't win by saying how much you like the other guy. In America today that just reads that you don't want it that bad. Unfortunatly voters don't respond to that. They want to see that your way is the right way so much that the other guy is an asshole for not believing it.

----------------

Here, he's not sure which ticket he will be voting for in the GE....

(DUer name removed because he/she is not commenting in this thread)
38. do you support the democratic ticket
yes or no?


inthebrain (1000+ posts) Sat Aug-23-08 12:44 AM
Response to Reply #38
39. I'm not sure what I'm going to do
This is a VEEERRRY tough choice for me.

I'm sure you revel in the idea that some have no real choice.

Do you feel that your quest to crush the left has succeded?

------------------


Here announces he's not voting in the Primaries....


inthebrain (1000+ posts) Thu Jan-31-08 03:37 PM
Original message
Well, looks like I'm not going to vote in the primaries

I don't have a dog in the race and I really don't give a shit for Obama and Clinton. I was willing to own up the fact that I was going to have to hold my nose and vote at least once this year. I really don't think I can do it twice in less than 11 months. That just too much.

I have thought long and hard about this. My mind is made made up. The only thing that's realy upsetting to me about this is that we are not even half way through all the states and the choices are filed down to two. Think that's bad, imagine how those primary voters in Michigan and Florida feel?

Those votes don't count for squat and most likely discouraged a lot of other folks from voting. Going to the polls in those states are complete waste of time.

Maybe the best way to stick a fork in the ass of the pundits, and corporate media who have all but decided this election, is to stay home this primary.

[27inCali]

66. sounds like a lot of defeatism to me

hmmmm.............

who routs for Democratic party defeat?

hmmmmm........

[butterfly77]

68. Teabaggers..

[smalll]

5. But, but, the mandate's constitutional! Because it's a TAX INCREASE!!!

Oh no, don't worry, we'll do fine. :eyes:

[inthebrain]

8. I don't know what you're getting at

I'm basing this on a lot of the people I've talked to.

There's a lot of disgust right now towards the political system. Couple that with the fact that the Democrats haven't really acted as the party of the working man. The wars are still on going (No Iraq pullout in sight) and the bailouts, layoffs and forclosures haven't left anyone untouched. There's been little next to nothing as far as relief goes. I thing the Xmas Eve corporate welfare didn't help matters.

People are fed up with the system. From the people I've talked to I don't blame them.

[vadawg]

9. rofl that is the best line yet...... congrats

[smalll]

16. That's not my line -- I think it was on OP in GD recently pretty much.

But yeah, it's an issue.

[mkultra]

42. well, we know republicans hate tax increases

[Aramchek]

48. is a Car Insurance mandate not Constitutional?

[Igel]

57. It's constitutional.

First, there's no obligation to drive. I didn't have car insurance for the better part of a decade. I didn't own a car, I didn't drive a car. Car insurance is a prerequisite for obtaining a car registration allowing you to drive the vehicle on state and county property (not on private property). Mandated health insurance is required for obtaining what privilege?

Second, it's a state mandate and not a federal mandate--so it's the state constitutions that are at issue, not the federal constitution. The question isn't whether it's a violation of civil rights protected by the Constitution, but whether the Congress is overstepping its authority.

Third, many states, at least historically, had an alternative: If you had posted a sufficient bond you didn't need insurance.

[Aramchek]

58. "Mandated health insurance is required for obtaining what privilege?" Healthcare, of course

or do you think everybody else should pay for your medical costs?

[Cleita]

62. I don't think it is and I would like it challenged in court some day. n/t

[Aramchek]

64. who should pay for your mistakes, if not you?

[Cleita]

69. Insurance should be turned into a utility, non-profit and to be paid for out of

taxes in this case maybe fuel taxes. If there is an accident both parties are covered automatically. That's how ALL insurance should be administered. There is a precedent for this model, unemployment insurance. But, I'm a socialist so I'm sure you don't agree.

[Cleita]

61. Just heard on the radio that the only right the government has is to levy

taxes. Forcing private citizens to buy a product from a private company is unconstitutional and is fascism and totalitarianism. Make sure Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid know that.

[zulchzulu]

6. Paint the GOP as the Party of No, Cheney, Palin and Teabaggers and we kick ass n/t

[w4rma]

26. That's only a small part of the equation. Dems need to show change in policy from the Repukes. (nt)

[Cleita]

63. Grass roots Dems also need money to go toe to toe in fighting the well

financed propaganda machine of the right and the DLC Dems.

[Juche]

7. They will win, but mostly due to dem apathy

The party in power tends to lose in a midterm. But dem apathy will be the big killer. The GOP is energized and dems are apathetic.

We fought to take our country back in 2006 and 2008 and put it on a better course. And to a large degree we feel disappointed.

The GOP isn't going to win because the public moved to the right, they are going to win because all the people who want the US to move to the left were told to sit down and shut up by the people we voted into office.

[inthebrain]

10. I don't think apathy is really the right word

More to the point is that I think both parties have failed to really capture and act on the wishes of the public. They've excerbated the anger with all the corporate welfare and the fat cats haven't helped with the layoffs and paying themselves massive bonuses.

There is real class anger in the country.

[Juche]

18. Alienation? Despondency?

Apathy might not be the right word, apathy is better to describe people who would rather watch reality TV than follow politics.

Despondency might be better. The sad part is it feels like both parties are plutocratic. The GOP is nakedly plutocratic, while the dems are a kinder, gentler form of plutocrat. Both both are unable and/or unwilling to do anything unless the superrich and superpowerful are at least somewhat in favor of it.

[inthebrain]

20. Alienated and despondant are probably the perfect words to describe it

I would say that's more precise.

[RoyGBiv]

11. You've never seen "it" like this?

Where exactly are you looking for "it" and what exactly is it you are seeing?

[burning rain]

49. Good link.

Seib might also have mentioned that this time around, unlike early in Clinton's presidency with the Brady Bill and Assault Weapons Ban in the 1994 Crime Bill, Democrats haven't gone for gun control and riled up the gun-owning constituency.

[Clio the Leo]

12. "GOP Faces Multiple Hurdles as It Aims for a 1994 Replay"

Read if you haven't already...

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125495123152271693.html

[inthebrain]

15. Oh, I don't think it will be anything like 1994

The GOP is not winning anyone over.

They aren't really drawing anyone into their camp.

I think folks are gonna stay home. That's really what I'm getting at (If you read what I wrote you'd have seen that).

[Clio the Leo]

21. I read what you wrote...

.... did YOU read me making any judgement on what you said? Of course not. Take it down a notch brother.

It's an interesting article that I thought you and others might enjoy reading .... next time I wont bring anything to show and tell. :)

[inthebrain]

22. I did read your article

I think if the guy who wrote thinks he can compare this to 1994 he's out to lunch.

Conservatives are still not happy with the Republicans. They still have enough fanatics to get to the polls.

The left that's been alienated by the Democrats are not going to come out. Fact is that the Dems are going to have to pray that all those Republicans they pulled over are gonna show up on election day. Couple that with a lot of the party faithful that isn't as disgusted and turned off right now because of the members of the Democratics Party getting in the way.

Healthcare is an issue where they've completely shot themselves in the face. As it stands right now the Democrats can't run on that at all.

The electorate is going to be an electorate that stays home. That's going to benefit the conservatives. The Democrats are governing too much too the right.

[grytpype]

13. Not gonna happen.

[RepublicanElephant]

14. just wait until obama's jobs bill is law....

....and a lot more people are working again = october surprise!

[inthebrain]

19. What's in the jobs bill?

If it contains any money or tax breaks for the wealthy 1% there will be a huge backlash that results.

Just like healthcare where the majority wanted the public option and that got tossed out the window. Instead we got more public money going to pharma and insurance companies. Not to mention a proposal that FORCES people to buy private insurance. That's whats really killing the Democrats right now.

[Better Today]

29. What jobs bill. All I've heard about was a jobs summit with a bunch of

big corp bigwigs.

[Lex]

17. I didn't think Bush would get a 2nd term.

Everyone was pissed off then too. I'm just saying these "gut feelings" aren't always so reliable.

[Guilded Lilly]

23. Put me in the ...

"I don't think so" column :)

[Hekate]

24. You need to get out more. When Dems are polled, Dems are happy with Obama. Very, very happy.

The people who are not happy with our POTUS are Republicans -- and a small cadre of DUers and leftish bloggers.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/121199/Obama-Weekly-Job-Approval-Demographic-Groups.aspx

Here is what this poll says about the week of Dec. 21-27, 2009:

PARTY ID -- APPROVAL FOR OBAMA
Democrat 86%
Independent 48% (I think some of them used to call themselves Repubs)
Republican 18% (can't get much lower than that -- but these are the Repub base)

IDEOLOGY -- APPROVAL FOR OBAMA
Liberal 79%
Moderate 61%
Conservative 28%

PARTY ID AND IDEOLOGY -- APPROVAL FOR OBAMA
Liberal Democrat 87%
Moderate Democrat 83%
Conservative Democrat 73%
Pure Independent 47%
Liberal/Moderate Repub 35%
Conservative Republican 13%

[inthebrain]

25. Obama isn't running for a senate seat.

[Hekate]

28. Given the tenor of Blame Obama/Under the Bus/We're Gonna Lose here at DU...

... I figured that Obama's very high poll numbers among Democrats was more than relevant to this thread. You said you'd "never seen it like this before" and that "people are fucking pissed off!!!" and "Republicans are gonna win huge in the midterms." If all of that is not a slam directed at Obama then I don't know what it is.

Since the Repubs are not going to vote for him or any other Democrat, it is our responsibility to get out the vote among those 87% of happy Democrats by making sure they understand how crucial this midterm election is.

They won't stay home out of anomie, alienation, disillusionment, disgust, disaffection, betrayal, or any of the other weary things you and others here like to claim is Obama's fault because he's "lost the base."

They'll stay home for the usual reasons people stay home during midterm elections -- because no one has told them how very much this matters.

Now you can either get off your butt and GOTV, or you can continue pissing and moaning and I figure that will be because you actually want the Dems to lose.

You and the bitter Republicans.

Hekate

[davidpdx]

31. I agree with you about getting out there and making it happen

But the OP does have a point about the lack of enthusasim that will have an effect on the outcome. Obama isn't on the ballot, which I think does make a difference. Having him at the ballot (on the top of the ticket) did help.

[Hekate]

34. Exactly. That's why midterm elections have low turnout. Even in presidential years...

... you have to make sure people "see" the down-ticket candidates. At midterm, it's all down-ticket, not glamorous.

Hekate

[Better Today]

30. You put your finger on the problem with your post without realizing it.

Some of the folks I know who became Dems when Bush got elected the first time, or second time, are now deciding to be independent and won't claim being Democrats anymore either. Additionally because of the choices Obama has made, some Dems I know are now no longer willing to be considered Democrats, and know claim independent. Though I doubt any of them have actually reregistered, they are tired (exhausted even) of both parties' lies and corporate lap doggedness.

So though you cutesy ad lib "(I think some of them use to call themselves Repubs)," it's more likely that it is a pretty even mix these days.

[Hekate]

35. Wasn't actually trying to be cutesy--there were a lot of people last year who didn't want to say...

... that they were Republicans, but the number of people claiming to be Independents increased. Hmmm.

Hekate

[mkultra]

44. no one cares and they cant do anything about it

The "dems" that no longer claim it are really just hard left folks who dont really like democrats anyway. They are very social conscience and hate the suicidal winner take all methods of Bush and the republicans. No matter how much they dont like the democrats, the will still vote democrat over republican. I can stick them in the eye as many times as i want because they will never NEVER vote republican nor stay home.

to bad, kiss our ass.

[Better Today]

51. "stick them in the eye" WTF are you talking about. And you're

the only intelligible remark, I feel is wrong. If Obama and company don't really start focusing on jobs, bank/wall st. reform, if the HCR ends up with too much consideration for private insurers,. . .

folks the Dems need will just stay home.

[mkultra]

54. yeah, thats who im addressing

Those who would run if more liberal policies are not applied. Those vary leftists will never stay home nor will they vote republican. They are a minority and we in the democratic party will not be held hostage by the wishes of a few. You can threaten to leave all you want but you never will and we ALL know it.

[LibDemAlways]

27. The Dems will have only themselves to blame if they suffer losses in the

midterm. This giveaway to the insurance company crooks coupled with huge bailouts for Wall Street isn't going to do anything to bolster Dems' chances in the fall. They've taken the goodwill of the American people and squandered it.

[davidpdx]

32. I'm torn between whether they will be huge gains or more then average

I think it will come down to more then average and here is why based on the article that was posted by someone down thread:

Some positive points made in the article though:

-Not as many incumbent Democrats are retiring in the House(as of yet, but that could change)
-We clearly have 1994 as a lesson learned that the incumbent party can lose in a big way
-Obama's poll numbers are higher then Clinton's were then (unless they go down between now and then)
-The average number of seats picked up in midterms after the election of a new president 11 and 2-3 (House and Senate). I would agree they are going to make slightly bigger gains the average, possibly 20 and 4 respectively. Nothing close to the what they would need.
-Seven incumbent Republican Senators are retiring

Some question marks:

-The economy, will unemployment numbers drop and GDP numbers improve by the time of the election?
-Will the Republicans message resonate with the people in any given district?
-Will there be a Republican surge with poll numbers as races get tighter?
-Will Democrats be able to organize as well as 2008 or will the Republicans pull it together and match what we've done.

(my guess is yes on the first and no on the second and third and unsure on the bottom one)

[Jennicut]

56. Very accurate assesment.

Especially with Obama's #'s be slightly better then Clinton's, and that 7 Repubs are retiring.
We will lose seats for sure but not enough to lose the majority. Not that the media or anyone around here will care anyway. Everyone will run around with their heads cut off and panic.

[dkf]

33. Obama needs jobs jobs jobs

Or we will lose lose lose.

Jimmy Kimmel joked that in 2010 obama will do all the things he promised in 2009. That is sad.

[FrenchieCat]

36. I guess it is up to us then......

cause if we keep repeating the GOP/Media mantra that Dems are going to lose,
over and over again, it's hard to see it not happening.

Now why would "some" folks here want to keep repeating what they have been
fed by the enemy? How does that help us? you're right...it doesn't.

[old mark]

37. I think they are on the way to losing several seats, despite the retirements, etc.

I think we will gain several in the senate, and more in the house.

mark

[rasputin1952]

38. The 2010 elections are 10 months away...

a lot can happen between now and then.

I don't see things as bleakly as others. All things considered, the only thing the GOP "has" is nothing but complaints. There is not one idea among them that can even be remotely construed as something that would get us out of the morass we are in. Although D's in Congress have sputtered, they are moving forward on several fronts...don't underestimate the voting public. As the election gets closer...things will change quicker, and the GOP is in trouble w/funding as well as their lack of ideas.

It's not going to be bad at all...people still remember the disasters that came from R policies...prod those memories a bit, and the GOP falls apart.

[mkultra]

45. +1 the best campaign speech is two words.... "Not Bush!"

[moondust]

39. That you KKKarl?

[secondwind]

41. the poster lives in Boston......I wonder who he has been "talking to"? I live in Boston, and

no one I know feels the way he/she does.

There are a lot of STRANGE threads going around DU these days.

[mkultra]

46. its organized disruption. Just ignore it.

[TayTay]

50. Maybe from US House Rep Capuano (D-Somerville)

Who was asked to report to the Dem Caucus on what he learned on the campaign trail this past fall and replied, according to an article in http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/12/15/rep-capuano-tells-fellow_n_392685.html">HuffPo:

Capuano took to the microphone, looked out at his colleagues and condensed what he'd learned into two words. "You're screwed," he told his friends in the House, according to one attendee. The room's silence was broken only by soft, nervous laughter.

Capuano confirmed the gist of the message -- "I'm not sure of the exact wording," he told HuffPost, chuckling -- and said that he doubted his wisdom was anything they didn't already know.

"I think I was just confirming stuff they already knew," he said. "I focused on two things: the war in Afghanistan and jobs."

Everywhere Capuano went in his state, he said, he was bombarded with demands that the government do more to create jobs. He was also greeted by deep skepticism about Obama's escalation of the eight-year-old war in Afghanistan.

Capuano said he told the caucus that opponents of the war need to be given a chance to vote against funding for it on the House floor.

People are scared of this economy and their ability to keep their jobs, homes, etc. Even in Massachusetts, the State I reside in. And yes, I am hearing this kind of sentiment everywhere I go.

[mkultra]

43. no the arent. You may be, but you probably already vote republican

[Peacetrain]

47. Nope, I see no big wins for them.. Good grief they should gain a few seats

I mean we have taken the last two elections.. and history shows.. the party of the executive loses the first mid term, when people give up on the latest messiah whether republican or democrat or indy,

But Bush so blew it out of the water and Cheney keeps reminding us what dips they were.. works for me

[TayTay]

52. Most people don't pay attention to politics at the level DU posters do

They don't actually care much about political parties or the discussions about background and generational responsibility for economic calamity.

Voters want the system to work. They want jobs and the ability to progress economically. Should this process be interrupted, the voters will punish those in authority at the time the vote comes up. Politicians know this. Bad pols count on it. Bad pols choose this time to ramp up the fear factor and try and inject massive doses of xenophobia into the discussion and blame "those people" for the troubles. (You know "those people" right? "Those people" are the newcomers, the poor and those with any kind of attribute that sets them aside from a mythical average American. It is irrelevant that the "average American" doesn't actually exist. They only need to exist in rhetoric or desire in order for this to work.)

Beware the fear mongering going on now in light of the Christmas terror scare on the Detroit plane. The Republicans will try and create a whole xenophobic storyline for the fall election and incorporate all the elements of their fear narrative into this. It's what they do. It's what history teaches us about what happens to human beings in bad times. We look for scapegoats. We look for someone to punish or blame for our troubles. Bad pols know this and use it to get power.

Democrats need to wake up. Pretending that voting is all a rational process that can be "explained" by talking points and well-reasoned appeals to the public is a way of lying to ourselves. We are in a propaganda war and the other side is currently making big headway. We need to remember the non-rational, very human part of our nature and start speaking to that side as well.

[4dsc]

53. Keep reminding folks this is a republican mess

we are witnessing 30 years of failed conservative economic polices. Thus the last thing you want to see republicans back in office.

[FrenchieCat]

59. Self fulfilling prophecies based on Media/GOP meme

can be hazardous to the health of the American People.

Too bad you have chosen to take time out to proclaim doom
on the American people without anything more than a vague pronouncement.

The point of the Democratic Underground is to support Democrats to elected office
against Republicans, and we need to work to get that done....
not work in tantum with the GOP and its corporate media and their meme du jour.

I would suggest that DUers ignore those who have picked up the Media/GOP line
that Democrats will experience massive losses based on historical trends....
as history is being made, not repeated.

Your hyperbole prediction is not one that we should want to play out
because we have so little time, and so much to rectify after 8 long years of darkness.
In fact, minimizing any losses is indeed a very serious endeavor that we should be undertaking
eagerly, not only for our nation, but also for the world.

That's how important and urgent it is that we retain a majority in both chambers!

Instead of what you are doing,
it is critical that DUers do what we can to insure that voter turn-out is not depressed
and to work against the impending Doomsday naysayers who call themselves Democrats,
but who aren't truly working towards the best interest of the Democratic slate,
and in reality, for the betterment of the American People.

We can affect a positive message out in the blogosphere and into the real world if we want to,
and that is really what DU should be about.

Those who don't agree with this premise should really seek other platforms
to mount their soapbox and declare what should not be acceptable to us here at DU,
especially one year out!


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[billh58]

60. Only if the vote

is confined to DU detractors. The rest of we Liberal Democrats are doing just fine, but thanks for the concern.

[EmeraldCityGrl]

67. It's only January, much will change by the mid-terms.

[butterfly77]

70. If that is what a lot of stupid people want..

If they can't see that Bush and the GOP are the cause of a lot of these problems then they will deserve what they get. There is no way that people can't see why the country is in the shape it is in,the repubs have neglected every institution in this country,while building up other countries.

They really do hate America. Complaining about the President has taken place before he took office. I wonder what goodness do the complainers expect from the Repugs?