New Year's prediction, we will give up 42 House seats and 6 Senate seats in November.

[CK_John]

Because some will retire and we have a very shallow bench, some will change parties and we have a very shallow bench, some will not get local party support and we have a very shallow bench, and some are lazy and will not work to win.

And we have a very shallow bench.

[closeupready]

1. Seeing as how we are impotent even with the majority we have now, does this matter?

n/t

[Better Today]

16. Exactly my thoughts.

[harun]

88. Mine too.

[ChiciB1]

54. It Would Be Nice If Our Own Democrats Were Worried! Guess Not! n/t

[invictus]

76. Impotent? The Democratic Party is doing exactly what their emloyers (corporations, lobbyists) want.

[marshall]

89. It's always the middle that runs things, regardless of who is in power

Things shift a fraction one way or the other--but it's always the same power brokers calling the shots. They pay lip service to the left or the right depending on their side of the coin toss, but there's very little difference between them.

[mkultra]

2. something is shall AND transparent.

[CK_John]

3. Unrec already. What a wuss.

[TheWraith]

4. Um, no. Not even close.

Just to start, tell me the six Senate seats we're going to lose.

[CK_John]

7. I would say the 6 oldest are possibilities and Mass, NY and Ca are nip and tuck.

[WeDidIt]

18. Crazy talk n/t

[chelsea0011]

31. Trust me, Mass isn't nip and tuck

[stevenleser]

78. Nor is NY. The GOP has no one of any consequence to run here.

Giulianni is out. Who do they have? Lazio? No way he wins a statewide race here.

[onenote]

37. I'm guessing this is your attempt at reverse psychology

Trying to motivate folks to get out and vote with dire warnings. But it would help if your dire warnings were remotely realistic.
The Mass special election is in two weeks. There is absolutely no indication that its "nip and tuck".

I'm not sure how it motivates people for the November elections when you make a prediction that will be proven untrue for an election two weeks from now.

[TheWraith]

50. You think we're going to elect Republicans in Massachusetts, New York, and California?

Whatever you're smoking... SHARE.

[xxqqqzme]

55. CA are you delusional?

We will fight to keep Boxer in her seat. She is the only Senator we have out here on the left coast.

[Hekate]

69. CA Senators Feinstein and Boxer are each popular here in their own way.

Not everyone who loves Boxer likes Feinstein and vice versa, but they are both indisputably Democratic. Barbara Boxer is up for re-election this year, and I have not heard that her seat is iffy.

Hekate

[Lost4words]

8. Tell me what we have gained by having those seats now?

[WeDidIt]

22. Democrats set the agenda instead of Republicans

That alone is incentive to maintain the Democratic majority.

Remember when Republicans set the agenda how they went for Terry Shiavo shit? Remember? Remember how they used a vote to go to war against Iraq to political advantage just prior to mid-term elections in 2002? Remember?

Then again, maybe you like Republicans setting the agenda.

[Sebastian Doyle]

73. Repukes are still setting the agenda

That piece of shit that you call a "health care reform" bill is evidence of that. Who controlled the agenda on that?

Lieberdouche? Baucus? Nelson? Your boss and his Medicare privatizing brother?

None of whom are Democrats no matter what they call themselves.

[Cosmocat]

72. Yeah ... There is going to be a D pullback, but not apocolyptic ...

Look ... There was a maximum turnout FOR Ds to support BO and Rs who stayed home in complete repulsion about GW, and McCain and Palin pushed various Rs out for their own reasons ...

As a result, the Ds have pretty much maxed out the numbers in the House for sure ...

With a lower D turnout, they are going to lose some R leaning and 50/50 districts they hold. The senate, as some have noted, looks to be a range of -2 or -3 to maybe picking one up ...

The Rs are not great on money right now ...
The teabaggers are diffusing some of the opposition energy in a gremlin kind of way, going after Rs as much as Ds ...
People are not loving the Rs, too much ...
People are burnt out over the PROCESS invovled with health care reform, not the actual bill. People WANT the reform. WHEN it gets done, the negatives weighing on the Ds will flip back to positives for the Ds - it won't be a complete return of political "capital" but it will not be the negative it is now ...

Still LOTS of time, and the landscape is going to change a half dozen times between now and then. But, if there is no major terror attack and the economy rebounds even a little, if there is so much as even a percentage gain in unemployment, the Ds likely will lose 20 or so house seats at most - just the most the Rs will have the money/energy to get back what probably "belongs" to them to begin with ...

[Lost4words]

5. and it wont look or sound any different from what we have today!

buz as usual, move along.

[Ozymanithrax]

6. I have bookmarked this thread so I can see how accurate...

your predictions are on the first Wednesday in November.

But it would be better if you could point out seats, especially in the Senate. For posterity, who will stay and who will go.

Burris of Illinois and Ted Kaufman of Delaware are retiring. (There are six republicans retiring.)

There are 16 Democratic Incumbants runnings and 12 Republican incumbants.

[CK_John]

9. I really don't go state by state, but more of the mood the country is in and what I think Oct

will be like.

[Ozymanithrax]

10. I'm book marking all predictions...

It will be interesting to see what happens. Though, so far, the mood here at DU is running against the Democrats in 2010.

[CK_John]

13. The mood here is usually 180 from what I see and hear around me. I try

to point out political possibilities and don't care that much for actual probabilities.

[FrenchieCat]

47. Past CK_John predictions.......

CK_John (1000+ posts) Mon Sep-15-08 08:14 AM
Response to Reply #20
30. Obama will not win by more than 5 points in any state. n/t
--------------------

CK_John (1000+ posts) Thu Aug-21-08 09:58 AM
Original message
Last week I warned that the draft would be an issue, guess what? How this is handled
will make or break Obama.

This is Rovian trap issue. I don't care what policy Obama comes up with, but . . . he cannot rule out a draft completely or McCain will win. All options must be available to the next POTUS.

---------------------

CK_John (1000+ posts) Mon Aug-18-08 04:43 PM
Original message
My last word on Obama's VP pick, it will be Melinda Gates or Caroline Kennedy.
The past is prologue.

---------------------

CK_John (1000+ posts) Sun Aug-10-08 09:33 AM
Original message
Why does anyone think Obama will win? Almost every DU'er seems to be the only vote within their
immediate family, their extended family, their job, and their casual friends according to the many posts fighting the brave and lonely fight for Obama. Even here I doubt Obama gets 51% due to being non citizens, not registered, incapable of making any decisions, underage, etc.

In my area of upstate NY there is 0 support, no signs, no car stickers, 20% outright racism, 30% covert racism, 25% won't vote for varies reasons, and rest will vote for Obama but will not say so publicly.

I think the reality is Obama is down about 15% and anyone who thinks this is a cakewalk is a fool.

----------------

CK_John (1000+ posts) Thu Aug-07-08 10:01 AM
Original message
Tinfoil time, Obama will decide to NOT pick a VP but will request the convention to determine the VP
Pro's
a) consistent with change and a new way.
b) create a 24/7 M$M buzz to last for contention.
c) avoid asking Hillary directly to be VP
d) make all VP wannabes work for delegate support.

Con's
a) may look like avoiding a decision.
b) maybe nobody files for VP.
c) the convention breaks down in chaos.

(name removed, not participating in this thread) (1000+ posts) Thu Aug-07-08 10:36 AM
Response to Original message
10. Know what's funny? CK_John preceding a post with the words "tinfoil time"

Since he's the king of interesting conspiracy theories on DU!

You still think that McCain WON'T be the GOP nominee?


CK_John (1000+ posts) Thu Aug-07-08 10:54 AM
Response to Reply #10
14. Still think it will be Gov Jindal. n/t

------------------

CK_John (1000+ posts) Mon Jul-21-08 07:37 PM
Original message
IMO, Jindal was not lying about being VP, McCain will dropout and endorse him for the nomination.
I think Cheney is pulling the plug on the McCain dog and pony show.

The only question I have is, has Cheney found out who Obama will pick for VP because he will bring in a matched pair. If it is Obama/Clinton then Cheney will bring in Jindal/Palin.

We'll know more Thur with the big LA announcement.

-------------

CK_John (1000+ posts) Wed May-28-08 08:51 PM
Original message
As the economy gets worse, how badly will this hinder Obama in the GE?
Logic would say people should blame the GOP but...will they? IMO, as things get worse, voter dislocation will lower voter turnout. Schools may not have oil for heating and may not open. Their may be not be any student loan money in the fall, reducing the youth voter turnout.

Also, people in stress tend to go with the known(even if it against their interest) and will stay with a known entity, rather than take a chance.

What you think?

-----------------

I could go on and on with these CK_John Predictions of yesteryear. :rofl:

[Ozymanithrax]

53. Well, he seems to be at least equal to the Sybil or the Oracle at Delphi...

I think his predictions are very high. I'd say not more than half if we have a typical midterm. But I am interested in "predictions" because a lot of people are going into the Edgar Cayce business here. It will be interesting to see how they pan out.

[onenote]

61. and here are a few more

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=433&topic_id=99922#102424

post number 60

[snooper2]

77. that's a funny read

:rofl:

[PM Martin]

86. LOL

[Aramchek]

46. in other words, you don't know what you're talking about.

you just like to stir shit.

[DrDan]

11. I think that will be pretty close

unless HCR fails and employment does not improve - then it could be worse

[ClassWarrior]

12. What I like about posts like these is that they motivate people to campaign.

NGU.

[CK_John]

14. Bingo. n/t

[SunriseStorm]

15. We Will Loose Seats Because Of The Despicable HCR Bill And Obama's Broken Promises

People can only stomach so much dashed hope and change.

[Name removed]

44. Deleted sub-thread

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Name removed]

48. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[SunriseStorm]

51. It Is Against DU Rules To Treat Other DU Members With Disrespect

eom

[Hekate]

70. Respectfully, then, I point out you signed up today just to post this? Also, it's "lose"...

... not "loose."

Welcome to DU. Enjoy your stay.

Hekate

[WeDidIt]

17. My prediction, we will pick up a net 8 seats in the House

and 2 in the Senate.

[Tippy]

24. I like your prediction...8 & 2

I's the same as mine...most of the voters will remember HCR, they will also remember the party of NO...and unless there is a drastic change Republicans are not nor have been doing anything to bring their numbers up.

[MNDemNY]

42. Beam him up scottie!!!!!!!!!!!

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

[MNDemNY]

43. If you really believe that, why would you want thios HCR bill passed??

If you are right, shit can this and start over.

[Hell Hath No Fury]

60. 2 in the Senate?

Where would those two come from? Really, what State that has a GOPer in now is going to put a D in there next go round?

[racaulk]

62. In response to your question...

"Really, what State that has a GOPer in now is going to put a D in there next go round?"

I think we have a chance in Missouri. Kit Bond is retiring, and I bet Robin Carnahan has a decent shot at turning that seat blue.

Personally, I think that the "+2 in the Senate" prediction is wishful thinking, but we do stand to pick up that seat, at least. Unfortunately, we have more blue seats that are in danger, I believe, including Connecticut, Nevada, Delaware, and Colorado.

[WeDidIt]

63. Ohio, where Voinovich is retiring

Florida, where Mel Martinez has retired and LeMieux who was appointed will not seek it.

New Hampshire, where Judd Gregg is retiring.

Maybe even Missouri, where Kit Bond is retiring.

[brooklynite]

19. My prediction - all predictions made 11 months before Election Day will be wrong...

...and are a waste of time until we know:
1) how many Dems won't bother to run
2) how may Republicans will be primaried by Teabaggers...
3) how much money each side will have to spend...
4) what the economic and security conditions will be when the average voter finally starts paying attention

[onenote]

36. +1 million

[shadesofgray]

20. How can we tell the difference?

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

21. Maybe, but it doesn't mean that Republicans will necessarily gain.

According to most polls, while voters are angry at Democrats, they like Repukes even less!!!

[Tippy]

25. Right ON,,,,

[Tippy]

23. Well folks it's like this....

A person laboring under a defeatist attitude is consumed with negative thoughts, therefore he/she will likely be defeated...I personally do not want to be defeated, I did not like what our country became under Bush/Chaney I did not like the way Congressional Republicans rammed through the Patriot Act, and various other Bills. I did not like where and how they lead our Country. We had a VP who thought he was President and we had a President who got his jollies, cutting brush. He finally found a job he could do.....Do we really want to go back to THEIR way? I sure as hell don't.

My daddy once told me "quitters never win, you should never give up". I ran into a lady last week while shopping, she was once an Obamb supporter who helped during the campaign. She announced quite loudly she was switching parties, and proceeded to tell me he hasn't done what he promised, I am getting sick of hearing these fly by nighters spouting off FOX sound bites. I know our Country is screwed up, but I still believe in what our fore fathers fought/stood for. I still believe we live in the greatest County on earth, and will continue to fight of Democracy.

[Hekate]

71. Well said, Tippy.

:thumbsup:

[Umbral]

26. Cut those figures in half - it will still be more than enough to give Congress back to the GOP. nt

[FrenchieCat]

27. Self fulfilling prophecies based on Media/GOP meme

can be hazardous to the health of the American People.

Too bad you have chosen to take time out to proclaim doom
on the American people without anything more than a vague pronouncement.

The point of the Democratic Underground is to support Democrats to elected office
against Republicans, and we need to work to get that done....
not work in tantum with the GOP and its corporate media.

We are supposed to be countering their meme, not supporting it.

I would suggest that DUers ignore those who have picked up the Media/GOP line
that Democrats will experience massive losses based on historical trends....
as history is being made, not repeated.

Your hyperbole prediction is not one that we should want to play out
because we have so little time, and so much to rectify after 8 long years of darkness.
In fact, minimizing any losses is indeed a very serious endeavor that we should be undertaking
eagerly, not only for our nation, but also for the world.

That's how important and urgent it is that we retain a majority in both chambers!

Instead of what you are doing,
it is critical that DUers do what we can to insure that voter turn-out is not depressed
and to work against the impending Doomsday naysayers who call themselves Democrats,
but who aren't truly working towards the best interest of the Democratic slate,
and in reality, for the betterment of the American People.

We can affect a positive message out in the blogosphere and into the real world if we want to,
and that is really what DU should be about.

Those who don't agree with this premise should really seek other platforms
to mount their soapbox and declare what should not be acceptable to us here at DU,
especially one year out!

[CK_John]

29. You're head in the sand approach and everything is swell bs is what is wrong with DU.

Wakeup and smell the coffee and stop being so nasty to people this year.

[FrenchieCat]

38. If my message sounds nasty to you,

perhaps it is because you are exactly those who I was describing;
who make pronouncements of doomsday just because they can.
It is in fact unfortunate considering that Democratic Underground
was created for the exact purpose that I, this "nasty" as you have called me,
is promoting.


WHO DEMOCRATIC UNDERGROUND IS AND WHAT ITS MEMBERS DO AND DO NOT DO ACCORDING TO DU RULES:

Who We Are: Democratic Underground is an online community for Democrats and other progressives. Members are expected to be generally supportive of progressive ideals, and to support Democratic candidates for political office.

We ban conservative disruptors who are opposed to the broad goals of this website.

You are not permitted to use this message board to work for the defeat of the Democratic Party nominee for any political office.

If you wish to work for the defeat of any Democratic candidate in any General Election, then you are welcome to use someone else's bandwidth on some other website.

Democratic Underground may not be used for political, partisan, or advocacy activity by supporters of any political party or candidate other than the Democratic Party or Democratic candidates. Supporters of certain other political parties may use Democratic Underground for limited partisan activities in political races where there is no Democratic Party candidate.

Do not post broad-brush smears against Democrats or the Democratic Party.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/forums/rules_detailed.html

[Aramchek]

45. you know perfectly well what is wrong with DU, and you prefer it that way, obviously

it's disgusting.

[Jennicut]

28. Even if we give up those #'s, we don't give up the House of Reps

We have a pretty big majority there.
However, we have blue dogs in that majority so we really have a limited majority anyway.

[CK_John]

30. I think we have a 38 seat majority on paper, could be off a couple. n/t .

[Jennicut]

32. We have a majority of 79 seats in the House of Reps but how many are liberal seats is another story.

[CK_John]

33. That is a surprise. n/t

[Jennicut]

34. The Rethugs suffered terribly in the last two elections.

But we gained those seats from somewhat conservative districts so if the Dems lose them, is that any real loss?
In 1994, a historic loss for the Dems, we lost 52 seats in the House of Reps and 8 Senate seats. Even if that # is repeated, we still hold onto the House and Senate as Bernie from Vermont is still with us.

[Drunken Irishman]

35. As of Dec. 2009, there were 257 Democrats in Congress and 178 Republicans.

Or a total difference of 79 for the Democrats.

This is what people forget. It will take a near-improbable Republican landslide to gain the House back.

[Hippo_Tron]

65. It's the difference divided by two (round up)

Republicans need 40 seats to switch from D to R in order to regain the majority.

[thelordofhell]

39. I'll give you my 100% accurate prediction

After the election

[Aramchek]

40. and this prediction comes from the same dufus who thinks Obama won't run in 2012?

your psychic ability is severely lacking.

[jmowreader]

41. My prediction: Democratic Senate pickup of four to six seats

Robin Carnahan is running for the Senate from Missouri. She's good, and the Carnahan name is well-liked in Missouri. (Remember, her dad was able to beat Incumbent Senator John Ashcroft three weeks after he died.) I think this one's a lock.

I think we'll definitely pick up Missouri, Louisiana (where the despicable Dave Vitter is seeking reelection...could some of y'all down in the bayous attend Vitter's campaign events holding diapers in the air? Call it payback for the flip-flops the pukes brought to Kerry events.) and Florida. I'm pretty sure about North Carolina; Richard Burr is seeking reelection, and North Carolina has a history of keeping senators for one term. Besides, Richard Burr is about completely useless.

That's four. The fifth is South Dakota. If you look at it, you'd think it was a lock for the Republicans--its biggest industry is financial services (the state has no usury rate and a low cost of living, which makes it attractive to the credit card companies) and its second is agriculture: both are big supporters of Republicans. But consider: South Dakota sends three people to Congress: one to the House, two to the Senate. Of the three current Members of Congress, two of them are Democrats. They've sent Democrats to Congress for quite some time; remember, Tom Daschle was a South Dakotan. So I think an attractive Democrat could take this state.

The sixth one is a stretch, but I think New Hampshire is in play.

The only Democratic seat I worry about right now is Colorado, because of the rise of the Religious Right in Colorado. We could keep it, but right now electoral-vote.com rates it as "barely Democratic." We shall see.

If I have to really go out on a limb, I'm going to say MO, LA, FL, NC and SD will flip to the Democrats, CO will flip to the Republicans and NH will stay in Republican hands, and the rest of the Senate seats up for election this year will stay with the party that holds them now.

In the House, barring a huge Contract on America-style blitz (which COULD happen, but I don't think it will because the Republicans don't currently have the money for it) I think the turbulence will be little different from any other midterm election. People tend to like their Congressman while hating Congress as a whole. Sounds stupid, but how do you think Michelle Bachmann and Steve King keep getting reelected?

[burning rain]

49. Why wouldn't New Hampshire be in play?

Judd Gregg's retiring. As for Missouri, I hope Robin Carnahan pulls it off. It helps that Roy Blunt is a miserable old party warhorse with little appeal, and not a fresh face. Still, the backlash of 1994 gave Missouri an extremist outlier senator in the person of John Ashcroft (replacing the retiring moderate conservative John Danforth), and McCain did carry the state, albeit barely, in 2008.

[grantcart]

59. unfortunately you are too optomistic

Missouri is never a lock

Louisiana shows Vitter ahead and no strong democratic challenger.

Florida will be hard to win in an off election

We are not going to win in NC

Currently polling in both CT and NV show us losing but it will be close.

a more likely range is -2 to + 1.

If I had to bet now it would be -1.

[jmowreader]

64. Louisiana shows Vitter BARELY ahead

Louisiana needs one thing to ensure Vitter's defeat: a Democrat who's not afraid to point out the Republicans were the ones who screwed the pooch on Katrina. Once we get a Democratic challenger in place we should see some movement in Vitter's numbers; if you look at the polls for all states, the incumbent is beating out Challenger To Be Named Later in all cases where the incumbent is running for reelection.

I don't know if the voters can be reminded of what happened last time we had a midterm with a Democratic president in power--the Republican majority the voters were duped into electing brought Washington to a standstill. The voters aren't happy right now largely because not much is getting accomplished thanks to the Republicans. Imagine if they had control of either house!

I'm sticking by my predictions, sorry.

[PM Martin]

87. If I recall, did the Democrats make additional gains

during Roosevelt's first term as President? :shrug:

[cornermouse]

67. Missouri?

I don't know about the other states but Missouri? For a while I thought that was a possibility. There was a lot of anger at the GOP in Missouri when Obama ran and Blunt is not that well liked in some circles, mine included. Missouri briefly turned purple or purple/blue. That said, I think the policies Obama has pursued are already being used against Carnahan in Missouri. Also, it should be kept in mind that Blunt has a lot of money and in certain circles a lot of political clout that will enable him to rack up the votes. Missouri is the national headquarters of the Assembly of God church and is big on the Southern Baptist church, both very conservative organizations.

You mention the popularity of her father and that is true. On the other hand, her mother was appointed to finish his term and lost to Talent when she tried to run for it on her own. I still think the race will be close but I'm leaning toward the "they won't pick up Missouri" category at this point. Time will tell. I don't see any rush to get there at this point.

[RepublicanElephant]

52. oh geez.

:banghead:
:banghead:
:banghead:
:banghead:
:banghead:
:banghead:
:banghead:
:banghead:

[wisteria]

56. I disagree, Democrats are not going to want to relinquish power after it took so long to get it back

We still have a lot of the Bush years to correct and other important matters on the agenda.

I predict we will maintain our majorities in both the House and the Senate.

[PM Martin]

84. Do you see any chance of net losses?

[CakeGrrl]

57. Right, and President Obama will announce that he's not running in 2012.

:rofl:

[grantcart]

58. obviously you haven't looked at the class of Senators that are coming up for election

more Republicans are retiring than Democrats.

1-2 Loss maximum possible in the Senate with no change also possible.

[Danger Mouse]

66. Seriously doubtful.

[Hekate]

68. Aren't you the little ray of sunshine?

:shrug:

[Sebastian Doyle]

74. Aren't you the guy who predicted Melinda Gates would be vice president?

just sayin' ;)

[CK_John]

81. If I recall in that period my picks for VP were Gates, Palin, Meg of eBay, and Carly of HP.

Nobody knew any of them, now Carly is running against Boxer, Meg W is running for Governor in Ca, and Gates is still getting ready for some office.

[Milo_Bloom]

75. A fairly rosy prediction, compared to what will likely happen.

Right now there is nothing to turn out and vote for.

[Ghost of Tom Joad]

79. Republicans have nothing to offer

[WI_DEM]

80. We will not lose the house but we will lose several seats

[Telly Savalas]

82. Which ones?

[Brother Buzz]

83. Even that whacko GOP Chairman, Michael Steele, is backing away from such a rosey prediction

I will accept there will be a small GOP gain in the house, and less than two in the Senate on a good day. The monkeys have an uphill slog just maintaining the seats they already have.

[Peacetrain]

85. wishful thinking?...