On the 45% not turning out in 2010

[AllentownJake]

As someone who actually works campaigns and has gotten a consulting fee or two for advice on ground game. Not a big deal.

http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0781453.html

If I can get 55% of my democrats to turn out in my democrat leaning districts or even districts in 2010. I'm fucking thrilled.

[closeupready]

1. ok

n/t

[rwheeler31]

2. This polling is so unreliable at this time.

Things will change they always do.

[AllentownJake]

3. 55% voter turnout from registered democrats

fucking rocks in an off year. Let me know when this drops below 50%, and what the independent numbers look like.

[HughMoran]

4. So those numbers are WRT voting age population? Registered turnout was closer to 60% in last off-yea

election. Edit - so 55% of registered - that would be OK I guess.

[AllentownJake]

6. 60% in the last off year?

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15621554/

Where the hell did you get that. Your lucky to break 60% in a Presidential year. Most people don't even know they are registered due to motor voter registration.

[HughMoran]

8. I dunno - just did some division from your link

2006 220,600,000 total voting age 135,889,600 registered 80,588,000 turnout 37.1%

80,588,000/135,889,600 = 59.3%

[AllentownJake]

9. MSNBC puts at 40%

and 43% in Virginia and Ohio with competitive races.

[HughMoran]

10. Using WHICH group? total voting age or registered voters?

...and why supply a link that doesn't agree with the numbers you're quoting? :shrug:

[AllentownJake]

16. These numbers are fucking squishy

You get different numbers per source. The US Census office says 48%

In PA I can give you an exact number, in Oregon I can't. Because in PA you have to be registered 30 days before an election, in Oregon you can show up the day of an election.

The local elections here are high turnout if they crack 20% of eligible voters.

[beyurslf]

13. You are talking about people of voting age. The 60% is of "eligible voters"

which means people registered to vote on election day. There is a good 25-30% of people who are never registered to vote at all. They are not eligible voters come voting time.

[AllentownJake]

20. MSNBC puts 40% of eligible voters

The difference isn't that big. Also you have to keep in mind same day voter registration states vs states with deadlines.

We need national uniform election rules.

[Pirate Smile]

5. '94 came as a surprise to Dems near the end of the campaign. This fight is not a surprise and Dems

have plenty of ammunition to use against Republicans.

I also remember how the furor over possible immigration reform had everybody freaked out in 2006. Remember the protests and then protests against the protests? 2006 didn't exactly go the way Dobbs or Buchanan would have thought.

I'm curious what all Obama and the Democrats in Congress have in store to engage the base. They know they need to and I have no doubt they will do it. I'm sure DADT will be coming up soon now that HCR is almost over. Financial Reform is going to be big. Are the Republicans going to end up crying for the poor corporations? I'm thinking they will.

We aren't going to just be sitting back and taking crap from teabaggers and the crazy Republicans.

The White House has already said they are going to be nationalizing the elections, not try to act like it is all about "local" issues.

This is going to be an interesting year.

[AllentownJake]

7. It's going to be a bad year for democrats

Best bet is to do some moderate base pleasing things for unions and other groups to go back to their membership with.

Lots of bone throwing will be done in April and May particularly after the Health Care fiasco.

[Pirate Smile]

15. Geez, right after I posted I looked at Huffington Post and see that Republicans are

against creating a Consumer Protection Agency. "Republican Senator Robert Bennett: 'A Single Agency Whose Sole Purpose Is Consumer Protection Would Be Really Bad News' "

[Zynx]

11. I would also say that these numbers this far out are very squishy.

A lot can happen in 11 months. That's not to say we shouldn't start raising money like a son of a bitch and the party needs to better articulate exactly what they intend to do if their majorities are maintained.

[AllentownJake]

14. They got some problems after Health Care reform

I don't expect there to be problems in core democratic districts. You'll have a problem for democrats that weakened the legislation with lower democratic turnout and higher GOP turnout. Blue Dogs shoot themselves in the fucking foot every time. You are going to be stuck with whatever the party votes for, you better sell it.

[Zynx]

17. Blue Dogs would have been better off if they had backed a much more aggressive bill.

It would have been easier to sell, not to mention it would have been a better bill. Now they are stuck with a nuanced bill that they only lukewarmly supported.

[bluestateguy]

12. By October, I predict the two parties numbers will be matched

as it pertains to the question about turnout.

We will still lose seats, however.

[Zynx]

18. Sure, but our present majorities are huge.

[AllentownJake]

19. Blue Dogs will lose seats

lower turnout amongst the base, higher turn out amongst the opponent. We'll lose people who are being a pain in the ass right now.

[depakid]

22. Since they had the smallest swings- they had the most to gain- or lose with populist reforms

By opposing them- they've not only hurt the party, their own districts and the nation- but they've as good as lost their own seats!

Hope they have some cozy revolving door jobs lined up- like Billy Tauzin got with PhARMA the last go round.

[napi21]

21. I don't know %'s but I do know when some groups are MAD and others are

just complaicent. I see Dems & many Indipendents being complaicent right not.

I'm 66 yo now, and I've never missed voting in any election in my life, no matter how small or seemingly indignificant. The smallest I've ever voted in was one special election that involved 110 families!

I believe you have no right to bitch is you didn't vote your opinion in an election!

Too bad so many in off year elections don't feel that way. Way too many people simply aren't interested enough unless they're voting for a PREZ and can't get off their ass for 30 minutes to vote!