When predicting 2010 elections one is also predicting the economy

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

If the third quarter of 2010 is flat or negative (back to recession) with unemployment rising then we are screwed even if the pugs run a national slate of flatulent gila monsters.

If, on the other hand, the economy is roaring along then we will do much better. (Probably would still lose a normal number of off-year-election seats but not a tragedy.)

All the political indicators are useful--- polling, fund-raising, who's retiring, etc.--but will end up largely deferring to the national economy.

[paulk]

1. that is the bottom line

hopefully the administration will put it's focus on creating jobs, rather than bailing out Wall Street and the Health Insurance/Pharma industries.

[monmouth]

2. A Jobs bill instead of immigration reform needs to be next on the agenda..n/t

[amandabeech]

5. Yes.

But I'm not counting on it.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

3. That is the bottom line.

And I think it'll be somewhere in between. Slowly shrinking unemployment, continuing improvement in other indicators. Which would net us a small to moderate, but not control-changing loss.

[Clio the Leo]

4. Or the more likely scenario....

..... if jobs are up somewhat ..... you're smart enough to know the economy is not going to be "roaring along" for a few years to come. ;)