Greg Sargent's Plumline: Emerging Counter-Argument: Republicans have more retirements than Dems

[flpoljunkie]

With multiple pundits predicting the retirements of Byron Dorgan and Chris Dodd spell serious trouble for Dems — ABC News says Dems are “dropping like flies”

— Steve Benen spells out the counterargument:

In the House, 14 GOP incumbents have decided not to seek re-election, while 10 Democratic incumbents have made the same announcement. Does this mean Republicans are “dropping like flies”?

In the Senate, six Republican incumbents have decided not to seek re-election, while two Democratic incumbents have made the same announcement. Is this evidence of a mass Democratic exodus?…

So, to review, Republican retirements outnumber Democratic retirements in the House, in the Senate, and among governors. The preferred Republican/media meme of the day doesn’t match up well against reality.

Duly noted. Still, let’s keep in mind that the Dorgan and Dodd announcements raise two separate questions. The first: What do the retirements say about the overall political environment and how difficult it is for Dems? The second: How do the Dorgan and Dodd retirements specifically impact Dem chances of holding their Senate super-majority?

The fact that the GOP has had more retirements doesn’t materially impact the second question. The bottom line is that the Dorgan retirement is very bad news for Dems. Yes, it may well be offset by Dodd’s retirement, which gives Dems a much better chance of holding the Connecticut seat. But nonetheless, the North Dakota seat is now all but certain to flip Republican, and before, it wasn’t.

more...

http://theplumline.whorunsgov.com/senate-republicans/emerging-counter-argument-republicans-have-more-retirements-than-dems/

[bigdarryl]

1. You see this PROVES how the media tries and manipulate the American People

your not going to see this story in the media because there plan is to have the RETHUGS win in November to make Obama look bad

[hughee99]

2. Open seats only matter in some districts...

Yes, any open seat is technically an opportunity for a party switch, but some seats aren't going to leave the a party's control regardless of who held the office before or why they left.