Google Predicts Unemployment Rate Will Be 9.4% Tomm.

[Daydreamer.1961]

Google analyst have been ahead of the curve about the unemployment rate. They are know predicting the rate of 10% for November will go down to 9.4 for December


http://www.google.com/publicdata?ds=usunemployment&met=unemployment_rate&tdim=true&q=unemployment+rate

[mkultra]

1. mi prediction: Haters through google under Bus, start using BING!

[tridim]

2. If so, that's a good 5% boost for the Democrats

Have fun with that GOP. :evilgrin:

[AngryAmish]

3. They should get a Mac

[bluestateguy]

4. Not a snowball's chance in hell

Not tomorrow anyway.

That would probably cause a 300-400 point rally on the Dow. But not gunna happen.

[impik]

5. That's way too optimistic IMO. I'll go with 9.8

[jpak]

7. I'll take anything below 10%

n/t

[tridim]

11. Anything below 10% is a nightmare for the party of "NO".

The only thing worse for them would be a sustained drop in the unemployment rate spanning several quarters.

I expect this new number will be spun by the GOP like nothing we've ever seen before.

[levander]

44. tridim, nature is not bipartisan

Why is everything you post about either pro-Democrat or anti-Republican? You don't have any other thoughts besides how to label information left or right?

Stop looking at the world through a partisan lens. The world is a much more interesting place than that.

[impik]

15. Me too. Anything under 10% wil be very good.

[Donnachaidh]

6. did they get that prediction straight form the crack pipe they are smoking?

:rofl:

[quiller4]

25. There numbers are inline with what local college professors have

been forecasting. One big change that has gone unreported is the dramatic increase in firms that are recruiting on college campuses this year compared to last.

[Clio the Leo]

8. We shall see ..... the numbers cant get here soon enough. NT

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

9. Posting here so I can follow up with naysayers for mea culpas. (nt)

[DrToast]

10. No, no, no....that's not what that says

Read the caption:

The percent of the labor force that is unemployed, not seasonally adjusted.

This is the NOT seasonally adjusted number as of November. It's not their forecast for December.

The current seasonally adjusted rate is 10%.

[dmallind]

17. Ah that makes much more sense now I read the chart. Obviously a bit too much there! NT

[nsd]

23. +1

Thank you for clarifying.

[grantcart]

12. somebody will have to get smelling salts for kurt_and_hunter

Not a criticism just a recognition that the well informed DUer pays more attention to this key demographic than anyone else.

[Cha]

13. Then I think you

mean "kurt".

[grantcart]

14. lol yeah the kim hunter boat has sailed a long time ago.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

29. Kim?

[grantcart]

30. My fingers suffer from some kind of dislexic confusion lol

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

32. regarding your comment, gahamcard...

I expect unemployment to be down to 8% at some point in 2011 so obviously I anticipate the *average* move going forward to be downward.

Does that mean a large step down tomorrow? It seems unexpected but wouldn't be shocking.

The tough political question is how people will react if it goes down for a few months then heads back up... a not-unlikely scenario, and a nasty one for an election year.

It's funny that I get tagged as such an economic pessimist. The horrible things I predict are usually in line with what outfits like Goldman-Sachs are predicting, or vanilla extrapolations from Federal Reserve minutes. And my past performance is certainly not notably out of line with the way things have gone.

The expectation of high unemployment for years going forward is pretty much consensus.

That said, I'm not sure about this Google thing... I prefer to get my economic predictions from Facebook or the Internet Movie Database.

[grantcart]

34. the unemployment figure, as useful as it is, is still superficial

as it does not indicate what kind of jobs people are working at.


Living in Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand would bring a Prime Minister's report every January about the policies that the government had in mind for the upcoming year.

Now all of the countries had different strengths so they would have different focuses. Thailand's was the most balanced and the four pillars of Thai economics are commodities, manufacturing, agriculture and tourism. Most of the other countries only had 3 of the four and some like Indonesia would be overly dependent on commodities.

We don't have an employment, manufacturing, commodities or tourism policy.

We see manufcaturing declining as international trade makes other venues more efficient etc and simply wring our hands.

It doens't have to be either a permanent or bad thing.

For example one day I woke up in Singapore and there were banner headlines, "Minimum wage to increase 150% over 3 years. Tire companies told to leave."

Singapore had determined that existing between Malaysia and Indonesia that holding on to low paying jobs, like making tires, was a long term disaster so they wanted them gone now. The same day they announced huge incentives for high tech jobs. (All Singaporeans pay a small payroll tax like Social Security that go to job retraining so that if any Singaporean loses a job then they automatically qualify for paid job retraining. New high tech employers simply have to advise what type of skills they want and the community colleges adjust immediately.)

We don't have a rational process to analyze what our natural strengths are and where the best value is to increase the overall earning power of our workers.

For example we moan about importing manufactured TV sets but there is much more value in creating the entertainment value that people watch every night on the TV. Which would you rather produce, the TV set that the family buys once every 7 years or all of the material that they are watching every night. If you consider entertainment, movies, TV shows, software and electronic games as the result of manufacturing and included it in our export figures the balance of trade changes in our favor significantly. Avatar is going to bring in $ 1 billion from overseas markets in a single week. That is the equivalent of importing one IPhone (manufacturing costs) for every person in America.

So what are underdeveloped markets for American labor? probably tourism - it is every cheap to visit the US compared to most other areas). But we don't approach labor or industry from such an objective point of view. If we realized that we could largely supplant and actually replace all of the lost manufacturing sector jobs by producing entertainment for off shore viewing and for increasing foreign tourism by 500%, and that this could be done simply by improving our public relations efforts in getting along with foreigners. . .

Somehow such objective types of economic analysis seem beyond our political sphere, look at the economic embargo of Cuba which takes valuable dollars out of our farmers pockets.

[dmallind]

16. Hmm. I'm not that optimistic. MAYBE and only just maybe 9.9 but that's a stretch for U3. NT

[Arkana]

18. Wasn't it 10.2% a couple months ago?

If this is true it's actually good news.

[ShortnFiery]

19. BFD. The REAL unemployment rate will remain much higher ... not to mention MILLIONS under-employed.

:thumbsdown:

[PBS Poll-435]

20. Moderate improvement = fucking sucks?

Wow. :yoiks:

[ShortnFiery]

21. No fucking improvement until we RE-INVENT some sort of manufacturing base.

Those damn jobs now over in China are NOT coming back.

Continue to live in "la la" land while the lion's share of Americans barely eek out a living.

WTF does having a job truly mean when the vast majority of us are UNDER-EMPLOYED ... even now the phenomenon of the "WORKING HOMELESS."

[PBS Poll-435]

22. While I believe a good percentage of Americans are "under-employed"

Saying that a vast majority are might be stretching it.

[ShortnFiery]

26. Time will tell. It's not near as "bright" as the M$M wants us to believe. eom

[mkultra]

24. Your full of shit

These numbers are based on household surveys, not UEI claims. This is the true number.

[ShortnFiery]

27. Chomsky wouldn't recognize your persona ...

or is it *you're* in the dialect of your people? :P <silly grammarian tease = TWEAK> :evilgrin:

[mkultra]

43. Well, he certainly wouldnt like our resident HCI shills

trying to stop progress.

[Zynx]

38. Underemployed are the reason U6 is as high as it is.

Just counting unemployed and discouraged workers gets you nowhere near the oft-cited 16%+.

[bigwillq]

28. Hello.

Welcome to DU! :hi:

[glen123098]

31. I pray it goes down.

I've been lookin for a job for 8 months.

[Phx_Dem]

33. OMG. Might be a little optimistic, but anything below 10 is good news!

[Daydreamer.1961]

35. Cnbc News Alert

Pres Obama gonna speak about the Economy at 2pm

[DavidDvorkin]

36. That seems to show 9.4% for November

Rather than a prediction for December. Am I misunderstanding the chart?

[applegrove]

37. That means alot as long as it isn't people who have just dropped out of the job search.

We can always hope.

[Freddie Stubbs]

39. Unemployment Hovers At 10 Percent

Employers Shed More Jobs Than Expected ; Signs Point To More Americans Giving Up Their Employment Search

WASHINGTON (AP) ―

The economy lost more jobs than expected in December while the unemployment rate held steady at 10 percent, as a sluggish economic recovery has yet to revive hiring among the nation's employers.

The Labor Department said Friday that employers cut 85,000 jobs last month, worse than the 8,000 drop analysts expected.

A sharp drop in the labor force, a sign more of the jobless are giving up on their search for work, kept the unemployment rate at the same rate as in November. Once people stop looking for jobs, they are no longer counted among the unemployed.

more: http://wcco.com/business/jobless.claims.unemployment.2.1412996.html

[Aramchek]

40. the Hate Brigade won't like that one bit

[JelloSka]

41. That's why I don't do prediction threads

They're risky.

[Romulox]

42. Yet another commercial masquerading as a search result from Google.

:puke: