Massachusetts Senate Contest Competitive? What if...

[jefferson_dem]

Let's leave aside Rasmussen's lame, loaded polls for the moment.

Check out this -

Cook Political Report Downgrades Massachusetts Senate Race to ‘Lean Democratic’
By David Weigel 1/7/10 2:02 PM

This isn’t going to please Democrats who, privately, describe Democratic Senate candidate Martha Coakley’s strategy in Massachusetts as “running out the clock.” The Cook Political Report, taking a second look at the race after some polls showed Republican Scott Brown fighting to around 10 points behind Coakley, has downgraded the race from “Solid Democratic” to “Lean Democratic.” That’s a two-step decline in the Cook system — “Likely” means the race is clearly going in one direction, while “Lean” is one step up from a toss-up.

I’ve heard more Republicans than Democrats take issue with Coakley’s campaign — she’s actually leaving the state on Tuesday to raise more money in Washington, having started an ad blitz this week. This might change that.
The Cook analysis from Jennifer Duffy.

Over the past few days there has been a lot of buzz that the race in the January 19th special election to succeed the late Sen. Ted Kennedy between Democratic Attorney General Martha Coakley and Republican state Sen. Scott Brown has gotten closer. While both parties acknowledge some degree of closure, the question remains as whether Brown can pull off a Massachusetts Miracle. Doing so will require the Republican nominee to climb a very steep hill in the final days of the race, but the possibility that Coakley’s lead is now in the single digits warrants moving the race from Solid Democratic to Lean Democratic.

http://washingtonindependent.com/73428/cook-political-report-downgrades-massachusetts-senate-race-to-lean-democratic

And this -

Started our Massachusetts poll tonight...looks like it might be a real race

http://twitter.com/ppppolls/statuses/7501602911

Wouldn't that be some kind of craziness if the Dems lose their 60 vote supermajority a week from Tuesday when Mass elects Senator Brown in one the biggest political surprises evah?

...And this is while the health care reform bill still languishes in "conference." Wow. What then? I'm thinking the "nightmare scenario" option would be for the House to simply approve the Senate bill verbatim. I believe it wouldn't even need to go back to the Senate for approval...er...filibustering.

[TheCowsCameHome]

1. Coakley had better go on the offensive, and soon.

She's going to blow this if she doesn't get out in front of these issues.

Deval Patrick is in for some heat in 2010, too. I can picture him losing the governorship.

[jefferson_dem]

2. Looks like they just finalized three debates.

So she has a chance to distinguish herself and expose Brown as a nutjob.

http://www.thebostonchannel.com/news/22116818/detail.html

[TheCowsCameHome]

3. Time is getting very short. She'd better take off the gloves.

A lot of folks in MA are fed up with recent events, and Brown is using it to his advantage.

[jefferson_dem]

4. Ha. The NYT is on the case.

In Massachusetts, Anxiety for Favored Democrats

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/08/us/politics/08massachusetts.html

Stay strong. :)

[WI_DEM]

13. but is he a nut job?

[Mass]

18. He is a nut job.

http://www.chimesatmidnight.blogspot.com/

The Bill of Lading on Scott Brown:
1.) He is a relentless proponent of economic catastrophe in the form of tax-cut give aways to the very same Wall Street Wizards who lead the country into it's current recession.

2.) He all for torturing terrorists, thus placing mere vulgar retribution above intelligence gathering to say nothing of that fast fading anachronism called Justice.

3.)He is a political homophobe (which is the worst kind), took time out of his busy schedule in 2007 to co-sponsor a bill to outlaw gay straight alliances in our high schools. Quite literally Scott wanted to prevent straight teens from befriending gay teens, which is the worst sort of pestering holier than thou, witchburning politics in the opinion of Humble Elias.

4.) He opposes the current Health Care Reform legislation, in fact killing it forms a major plank of Brown's platform. That may be fine for him, Scott has excellent coverage after all but killing said bill is bad news for thirty million of his fellow citizen who nothing to speak of for health insurance. (I know some here may think it is a good thing, but Scott Brown likes the status quo, not single payer or the public option)
Scott might make a great US Senator someday, but for Wyoming not Massachusetts.

He is to the right of most MA Republicans, so, if you think at him as a Weld or Chafee or Snowe or even Collins, this is not what he is.

[Blaukraut]

20. But he's so pretty, and his wife is Gail Huff from our local ABC

affiliate, and his daughter was on american idol, dontcha know! :eyes:

[Mass]

21. And he is so sexy in this nude picture. But Martha will win this one. Only in MA can a 10 point race

be a close race.

[Mass]

6. Deval Patrick is a different problem. He runs against a republican that is liberal on social issues

and who is running with a gay Republican as Lt Governor, and a conservative Democrat who has a republican as Lt Governor to the right of both the Democratic and Republican tickets. The race is weird and, given that people do not like incumbents, if the economy does not improve, it makes it harder for him (he cant use social issues against Baker and Tisei).

Coakley runs against Brown, who is a hardcore Republican. She will win.

[TheCowsCameHome]

11. Deval has a battle on his hands, make no mistake about it.

A much of it is his own doing, too.

[Mass]

5. Dont believe the hype. Rasmussen has her 9 points ahead.

Vicky Kennedy and Paul Kirk endorsed her yesterday. She will win. But she is no Ted Kennedy or John Kerry, so the race will not be a 30 point race, of course.

We had the same hype with Tsongas election, and she won by 7.

This said, it may make people get out and vote for her.

[karynnj]

7. You might be right on your conclusion

If Brown won, unlikely as that is, the only way to pass it would likely be for the House to do just that.

I wonder if what Coakley needs to do is make the issue Mitch McConnell and the Road Block Republicans.

Kerry had a great site in 2008 - Roadblock Republicans that had a brilliant cartoon of McConnell killing every bill - using the beginning of the Marx Brother's song "whatever it is - I'm against it" changing very little. This site was taken down in 2009, likely because Kerry hoped the Republicans would change. In the video, the cartoon McConnell was killing cute little bills that looked a bit like the School House rock one.

[Mass]

8. I think people need to stop worrying about MA. Even Brown knows that he has lost and that a

RW campaign will not help him (he denounced the RW advocacy group that was airing ads against Coakley. Oh, they will still run, but he knew enough to call them out). Brown is running for a future position with more visibility (may be as Senate minority leader in MA if Tisei wins the Lt Governorship).

Coakley knows what she does. She had a very low key campaign during the primary and won by a lot, despite the cries of doom some local and national democrats started after Rasmussen released a poll showing her losing ground against Capuano.

[karynnj]

10. Great to hear

There does seem to have been a lot of interest given to a report showing Brown down 9 percent 2 weeks before the election.

[Mass]

19. Well, people are confused. They somehow expected her to lead by the same margins as Kennedy or Kerry

I dont know by how much she will lead in the real poll in two weeks, but she is leading by around 10 in virtually every single poll published or rumored. Somebody has to tell me how this is losing?

I know this is an argument that opponents will make. I made the same before the primary saying she had not won because you never known what the turnover would be and that Capuano or Khazei could still win (I am no fan of Coakley). Guess what, she won, and she will won again.

[karynnj]

22. I agree - and looking back to the 1980s and 1990,

Kerry did not win by the huge margins he has had in 2002 and 2008. (Not to mention, there was one weird poll, that had the Republicans thinking (or pretending to think) they could beat him in 2008 (though not 2 weeks before) - he beat Beatty by 34.8 percent - enough to win his bet on the margin with Delahunt who beat him by nearly as much in a Congressional race a few years before. )

[jefferson_dem]

17. I hope you're right.

;)

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

9. You're correct that if the House passed the Senate version, it would not go back to the Senate.

This might will be the end-game scenario either way you cut.

[WI_DEM]

12. I've never believed that she was the best candidate that we could get to replace Teddy

[seaglass]

14. No, she wasn't but her name recognition was unbeatable I think.

Still, she should have no problem beating Brown.

[Mass]

16. I agree, but she is going to win this one. This is just media and pollster making noise.

[ElmoBlatz]

15. Lets take a deep breath

This is a lot of noise from pollsters who only have one race to focus on and like to stir things up.

Coakley 55% Brown 42% Kennedy 3%

You read it here first.