MA-Sen: PPP Has Brown (R) Up One Point

[ccharles000]

Public Policy Polling (PDF) (1/7-9, likely voters, no trendlines):

Martha Coakley (D): 47
Scott Brown (R): 48
Undecided: 6
(MoE: ±3.6%)

Some findings from Tom Jensen:

• As was the case in the Gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia last year, it looks like the electorate in Massachusetts will be considerably more conservative than the one that showed up in 2008. Obama took the state by 26 points then, but those planning to vote next week only report having voted for him by 16.

• Republicans are considerably more enthusiastic about turning out to vote than Democrats are. 66% of GOP voters say they are 'very excited' about casting their votes, while only 48% of Democrats express that sentiment- and that's among the Democrats who are planning to vote in contrast to the many who are apparently not planning to do so at this point.

• Brown has eye popping numbers with independents, sporting a 70/16 favorability rating with them and holding a 63-31 lead in the horse race with Coakley. Health care may be hurting Democratic fortunes with that group, as only 27% of independents express support for Obama's plan with 59% opposed.

Tom also offers some thoughts on how he thinks Coakley can win, and says that PPP will be back in the field next weekend. Taegan Goddard also has this update:

Meanwhile, polls from the Boston Globe and Boston Herald should be released in the morning.

A source tells Jim Geraghty that the Globe poll finds Coakley ahead by 15 points and the Herald poll finds her ahead by seven points -- but just one point among likely voters.

Mark Blumenthal also promised that Pollster would put up a trend chart once it has a fifth poll of this race (PPP makes five).

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/6176/masen-ppp-has-brown-r-up-one-point

[Mass]

1. So PPP has a toss up. All the other ones have Coakley ahead. Am I correct?

By 7 to 15. Seems an outlier to me.

[Arkana]

2. It's kinda like that Zogby poll that came out a few days

before the election in 08 that had McCain leading by a point--remember? Everyone went apeshit until Nate Silver swooped and patiently explained to us why Zogby was full of shit.

[Ian David]

3. Fuck it. I'm volunteering for Martha Coakley on Monday.

I don't want that nutball representing my state.

[Hippo_Tron]

4. Massachusetts is a one party state, I find this hard to believe

[fugop]

5. Hmmm...

I usually like PPP polls, but this was from Nate's twitter:

@ppppolls shows an electorate which is 26% liberal, 27% conservative; in 2008 it was 31% lib, 19% conservative.

Seems suspect, in light of the breakdown. Could Mass have changed that much, or did PPP just get a weird sample?

[secondwind]

6. we live in Boston, and rec'd this email today:

Martha needs your help NOW - so even if you can't make it to an event - you can still help by donating any amount at
https://coakley.zissousecure.com/contribute/PFP/mmk

or by emailing or calling headquarters to see how you can volunteer - [e-mail] Phone: [phone]

In Case you having been following the new closely:
An independent group, the American Future Fund, will be spending $300,000 on television advertisements in this senate race between now and January 12. The American Future Fund is a conservative organization whose leaders helped produce the Willie Horton advertisement used against Governor Dukakis and the Swift Boat advertisement used against Senator Kerry. While we have not yet seen the advertisement; we expect it will be negative against Martha. We also expect that the Fund will spend significant additional funds between January 12 and election day, January 19.This is a significant development in the race. Combining the Brown campaign and the American Future Fund spending, we are currently slated to be outspent on television

The latest Rasmussen poll finds Scott Brown narrowing Martha's lead to only nine points - and
> Among voters who are "absolutely certain they will vote, Brown pulls to within two points of Coakley," OUCH!

[Proud Liberal Dem]

7. Wasn't Coakley up by 9 about a week or so ago?

Seems like the Republican in the race, a "teabagger", has closed the gap in an astonishingly short time- if these poll results (and the ones that preceded it) can be believed.

:wtf:

[Fearless]

8. I'm sorry but Coakley will destory him.

That a poll puts it even close is absurd. :eyes: