Boston Globe has Coakley(MA-D) ahead by 15.

[Mass]

http://www.wbz.com/Two-Senate-polls--two-different-results/6078814

My guess is this poll will be a lot less published than the NC based PPP poll.

But, now, we have 3 polls: Rasmussen : Coakley +9
PPP : Coakley -1
Boston Globe: Coakley +15

Main different is independents, where Coakley leads by +1, a much more rational results than the -30 that PPP has.

[midnight armadillo]

1. Poll graphic

Source: Boston Globe

[Ian David]

4. Scott Brown is crazy and dangerous and must be stopped. n/t

[Mass]

7. Not only stopped, but exposed.

I worry that so many people instate believe he is not a hardliner. Come on, what will it take before papers like the Worcester Telegram and the Springfield Republican start seeing him for what he is?

[Clio the Leo]

2. And Nate-dawg at fivethirtyeight gives Brown....

.... a "15-25% chance of winning." Still, I dont want us to ever take anything for granted. Better for us to work hard and win by 10 points than not and win by 1.

http://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight

[babylonsister]

3. Thanks, good to read. nt

[TheCowsCameHome]

5. I'd predict Coakley by 14-16%, but

that's no reason to get complacent.

The wackos are lining up strongly behind Brown.

[ShadowLiberal]

6. Keep in mind, it's hard to predict turnout for special elections

Lets not get overconfident here, but just keep in mind that you should be skeptical of all the polls that show up for this race because of how difficult it is to poll.

That being said, I am getting worried at the kind of campaign that Coakley is running from what I've read, it's not a good sign when people start to write articles attacking the kind of campaign you're running before the election is even held.

[Mass]

8. Never be overconfident. But a lot about these articles is due to people assuming wrongly that

an incumbent would get the same numbers as Kerry or Kennedy. People started to panic with a poll showing her 9 points ahead. It is simply ridiculous.

[ruggerson]

9. When did this come out?

Hopefully it will get wide play, but I doubt it as it doesn't line up with the media's desire to see an upset.

[Brother Buzz]

10. One day after the PPP

Something weird happened, like someone flipped the numbers upside down. I sense the Globe has it right from what I've been following the last month, but PPP is a Dem friendly polling outfit.

:shrug:

[Mass]

11. PPP has a poor record in special elections, and some of the internals were quite weird.

I take the Globe for any polling in MA, anyway, but this poll should not make people complacent, just stop the hand wringing that would hurt our candidate.

[Brother Buzz]

12. Good

This west coaster was beyond mere hand wringing, I felt downright depressed when I read the PPP. The big push is on and I look forward to a favorable results. The key to this election is a big turnout, something that doesn't happen when voters become complacent - perhaps the PPP will have an unintended result of being that wake up call.

[freddie mertz]

13. God I hope that's right.

My old state, home of my birth.

[WI_DEM]

14. Why is Joe Kennedy listed in this poll?

[Mass]

16. Joe Kennedy is the libertarian candidate. NOT from the Kennedy family.

In fact, the Globe is the only poll factoring him in the race.

[WI_DEM]

18. Okay--though I can guess that some might think he is.

[WI_DEM]

15. According to Kos sight another MA poll will be out tomorrow--from the Herald

showing Coakley up by 7 overall but 1 point among likely voters. Still better than the PPP poll. I'll take this Globe Poll over PPP.

[Mass]

17. Apparently, there is no poll from the Herald. NRO said it was coming today. There was nothing and

There is this post by somebody generally well informed saying it does not exist. (The Herald will probably have a poll soon, I am sure, but not the one NRO reported).

http://www.julescrittenden.com/2010/01/10/up-1-or-down-15/

[Nyquil Man]

19. That's just about where Nate Silver has guesstimated the race to be.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/01/rassachusetts.html

"But, if I had to set an over-under on this race, it would be above 9 points for Coakley, especially given the earlier polling. If Coakley were to hold the 58 percent she got in the Suffolk and WNEC polls, for instance, at Brown got all the undecideds, that would imply a 16-point margin of victory. Or, if you take Rasmussen's 9-point margin and add 4-5 points to it, which has been roughly the magnitude of their house effect thus far this year, that would imply a 13-14 point win."

If we can't hold a seat that has been held by a Kennedy for almost all of the last 58 years, we're in trouble.