Could Democrats lose Ted Kennedy's senate seat? (Seattle PI)

[struggle4progress]

... Coakley is Massachusetts' attorney general, and the Democrats' nominee in the January 19th special election to fill the remainder of Kennedy's term. A longtime Kennedy aide, Paul Kirk, is serving under an interim appointment ...

A Rasmussen Survey put Coakley ahead by a not-so-comfortable 50-to-41 margin. Democrats discount Rasmussen, which made a way off-mark finding in this state's Initiative 1033 race. On Friday, however, Public Policy Polling came out with a startling finding: Brown had 46 percent to 45 percent for Coakley ...

The New Hampshire Poll, conducted for the Boston Globe, put the Democrat ahead by a 53-36 margin with 11 percent undecided or voting for someone else ...

Yet, the Massachusetts contest shows that nothing is really "safe" for Democrats at the moment, and that the open hand of political fund raising can stretch 2,400 miles across the country.

http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/archives/190736.asp?from=blog_last3

[liberal N proud]

1. The media sure is doing it's best to make the Democrats think so

This is only the 5th article from the 5th news agency that says the same propaganda.


This is what they fucking do.

[Davis_X_Machina]

2. Shouldn't anyone in MA interested...

... in improving the long-term prospects for the Democrats in Congress vote for Brown?

Turning the MA seat over to the GOP means a return to the HC status quo. Under the status quo there'd be no unpopular mandates, no handouts for insurance companies...

And everyone knows that killing that bill is the only way to prevent a voter backlash against congressional Democrats, leading to a '94-style blowout this fall, followed by the loss of the White House in 2012. That's DU gospel.

So the real progressive vote is to vote for Brown, right? Defeating Coakley kills the bill, and by doing that, it saves the party in 2010 and beyond. Sure the status quo sucks, but it sucks less than the bill in Congress, right? That's DU gospel, too.

Unless, just maybe, the health care bill now shuttling between the House and Senate isn't that bad. Or that just maybe there are other issues before Congress.

[karynnj]

12. Umm - no

1) They would then have to quickly pass a bill before the election is certified or pass the Senate bill as is

2) EVERYTHING will be filibustered.

3) The result will panic moderate and conservative Democrats into being LESS progressive.

4) This would give Massachusetts a horrible Senator, who will be a right wing star - with his decades old photo and American Idol daughter.

[Gman]

3. Rasmussen is paid to produce skewed polls

he has no credibility.

[karynnj]

13. No pollster goes out of his way to produce false results - all they have to sell is

their credibility.

Where I think you have a point is that he has pioneered some new metrics for the President. Citing the people who "strongly support him" and a measure that differences the "strongly supports" and "strongly rejects". This led to numbers that sounded like Bush's after 2006 - but Bush's were the standard - "support" that summed the strongly support and the support. (If he was honest and thought the new measure provided more insight, it would have been intellectually honest to use past studies to show what the Bush numbers would have been.)

[IndianaGreen]

4. Isn't Coakley 15 points ahead according to most polls?

I don't see the MSM drama about what is essentially a very predictable victory by Coakley.

[struggle4progress]

5. Scott Brown 'Money-Bomb' Brings In Big Money

A "money-bomb" online fundraiser by Scott Brown, the Republican candidate in next week's special election for Ted Kennedy's Senate seat in Massachusetts, has been a smashing success today. The original goal for the money-bomb, entitled "Red Invades Blue," was to raise $500,000 today. As of this writing, he has exceeded that goal -- he is now at $626,375.87 -- and he's headed towards a new goal of $750,000 ... http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2010/01/scott-brown-money-bomb-bring-in-big-money.php

[WI_DEM]

11. Three polls--two have a closer race than that one which was conducted Jan 2-6

[depakid]

6. "nothing is really "safe" for Democrats at the moment"

Impressive, since a mere- 6-8 months ago, Republicans had imploded to the extent that they were on the verge of being relegated to the fringe for a generation.

Goes to show what inevitably happens when the party panders to the corporate right, refuses to hold them accountable for egregious behavior, sells one core constituency out after another- and is generally (and correctly) perceived as unwilling to stand up and fight for its own traditional values.

What makes it even worse this go around is that Obama and the Democrats have managed to squander unprecedented political capital and all too happily ceded populist resentment and anger right back to the Republicans- preferring instead a center right alliance with banksters, health insurers and PhARMA.

[IndianaGreen]

7. If you stand for nothing, then you are nothing

The Beltway Democrats have turned their back on what had been decades of Democratic core values.

Indiana Democrats are still materially different from Indiana Republicans, with the notable exception of Evan Bayh, who won't get my vote this year.

[secondwind]

8. We do NOT want that GOP farce as our Senator! He's vile, he's a phony, AND

http://www.capecodtoday.com/blogs/index.php/2007/03/02/massachusetts_state_senator_scott_brown?blog=119


He's an insult to the memory of our late, great Sen. Edward M. Kennedy....

[CK_John]

9. Unless the Dem turnout is better than I think, Brown will pickup the seat. n/t

[karynnj]

15. The GOTV will determine the result

but, from the analysis, the Republican turn out is already assumed by the models to be high due to their "enthusiasm". The Democratic turnout is assumed to be depressed by the lack of enthusiasm. I know that there have been comparisons to the NJ and VA Governor races, ut there is a difference with a Senate race.

Here, the Democrats might be able to get turn out from the people who were pretty unenthusiastic just because they want to keep the Senate seat Democratic.

[seaglass65]

10. It's actually the People's Seat...nt

[City of Mills]

14. HAAHAHA

outed.

[ProgressOnTheMove]

16. That's a wider gap than I saw previously keep it up MA Democrats!