Polls are useful... even the bad news ones. ESPECIALLY the bad news ones.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

If it were not for uncomfortable polling news Brown might have defeated Coakley and taken down the whole Obama agenda. Instead, people have reacted to the news that the race was somewhat closer than assumed and Coakley will now probably win easily.

Polls are not predictions, they are snapshots of what people think today.

I think Obama will probably be reelected in 2012 but I also think he would lose to Romney today. If Obama found out from God herself that Romney would beat him today then Obama would react to the situation in some way that would change the dynamic, one way or another.

The reason candidates have pollsters isn't because they are impatient to find out whether they win or not. Polling is used to allocate resources and inform strategy... it is information that is used to plan for the future.

I think Obama polling below 50% today might actually make it somewhat likelier he will win in 2012. It is good to know where are. Makes it easy to plan where you're going.

[gateley]

1. Very reasonable and logical. nt

[dionysus]

2. i'll buy it.

[grantcart]

3. agreed

even bad polls like the robo Rasmussen and the PPP polls are helpful.

Hopefully the conservative money that the Rasumussen poll brings into MA will make people less likely to donate the next time.

[Clio the Leo]

4. Romney wouldn't beat Obama today or next Tuesday....

.... there is a HUGE difference between Obama having to fight his own party behind closed doors at the WH and Obama (and David Plouffe etc) on the campaign trail. You aren't factoring the political machine (which includes the fundraising ability) into that statement. That's something that currently has no effect on Gallup.


But your first three sentences are spot on! :)

[jgraz]

5. And how, exactly, would Brown have "taken down the whole Obama agenda"?

You mean, he'd vote against things like the Public Option and extending Medicare? :shrug:

[GeorgeGist]

6. Thanks for reminding me ...

just how shallow politicians really are.

[Mithreal]

7. interesting

[jefferson_dem]

8. Uh oh -- IPSOS POLL: Obama approval at 52/45 (+7 since Dec)

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/client/act_dsp_pdf.cfm?name=4653.1tb2.pdf&id=4653