The Massachusetts US Senate Special Election

[Clio the Leo]

(I'm making this thread for all of the random stuff about the election I read that dont deserve their own thread.)

Like this....

GOP Senate Candidate in Mass. Rejects Obama’s Bank Tax

By Jonathan Weisman

Democrats believe President Barack Obama’s proposed, $90 billion tax on big banks will box in Republicans, giving them the choice between siding with the bankers or breaking with the GOP’s antitax base.

If so, Republican Massachusetts Senate candidate Scott Brown has taken the bait. His Democratic opponent, Martha Coakley, embraced the bank tax and spent the day goading Brown to take a stand.

“Now is the time for Scott Brown to tell us what side he’s on, and who he wants to fight for. Despite his tea party rhetoric about never supporting a tax hike, the truth is that he has supported more than $300 million in new taxes and fees on middle class families. We’ll find out if his “no tax” pledge only applies to the privileged,” she said in a statement.

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2010/01/14/gop-senate-candidate-in-mass-rejects-obamas-bank-tax/

... let's see how the teabaggers respond to that one. Off to teapartynation.com I go!

[Schema Thing]

1. Even if it's just theater, it's nice to see

some populism being used by politicians.

The more populism wins, the more populism has to be included in promises and, eventually, policy. In a few hundred years, before you know it, you've got government for the people ;)

[Clio the Leo]

3. And there are TOO many voters who are excited by that theater....

..... to not recognize the importance of it.

an entire "nation" of teabaggers was born from it

.... that and the fact that a black dude is sitting in the White House. :)

[RBInMaine]

2. Ads should be plastered all over TV with him at the TeaPartier rally. Right Wing SCUMBAG !

[Clio the Leo]

4. Update: Suffolk University Poll, Brown up 4pts on Coakley

http://ow.ly/WFrx

[Mass]

5. Predicted Corzine by 9 a week before the election. Just one poll among many.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=433x126226

Clearly, the race is very close, though.

[jefferson_dem]

7. PPP will be releasing another poll this weekend.

It will be interesting to see what they come up with, relative to last weekend that showed Brown up by one.

By the way, did you hear what Coakley said about religious faith and emergency room care? I know what she meant and agree 100% but... it was a stupid for her to fall into the trap. If she wins, and I still think she will, it will ONLY be in spite of the atrocious campaign she ran.

[Clio the Leo]

9. The Coakley I saw in the debate....

.... was high on analytical answers and low on good old fashioned political spin.

[Ter]

22. Then we are really doomed

It gave the Democrat a boost by about 12-13 points in NJ.

[Clio the Leo]

8. More on this poll....

http://ow.ly/WFRk

[Mass]

10. Thanks. Totally different than anything else I have seen. Given their track record,

I am not surprised, though. Suffolk sucks.

Rasmussen had MA supporting the healthcare reform by 51 % and this seems a lot more in line. Coakley's favorability was 58 % (which is in line with basically every single poll).

This seems a very strange poll.

[SemiCharmedQuark]

13. Eek. I'm trying to read everything from Mass. residents.

It seems like a nail biter.

[Blaukraut]

11. They have Romney at 49% approval. No way that's right.

All other questions and approval/disapproval ratings for various pols show that Brown has the people snowed. They disapprove of Palin by 60%, yet Brown is pretty much a male version and his approval is at 57%.

[karynnj]

21. I think the reason Romney and Palin are high is the same reason that

Brown is. The people who are saying they are likely to vote are disproportionately Republican due to the greater enthusiasm there.

A very contrarian point of view is that this shows that there is really more upside available to Coakley as there are proportionately more Democrats and left leaning Independents who are not included than Republicans and Conservative leaning Independents. The question is whether Obama, Clinton, Kerry and any other influential Democrats could motivate them to vote - if only for the party.

[Aramchek]

30. why spread that tripe around?

[Cha]

6. Thanks Clio..should be nice and fat by

next Tuesday.

Stand With Martha!:patriot::patriot:

http://www.marthacoakley.com/

[Cha]

12. Mass~Election Tid Bits from Steve Benen..

* As of early this morning, Vicky Kennedy's "Let's Do It For Ted" email appeal for Martha Coakley's Senate campaign in Massachusetts had raised over $520,000 in less than a day. By mid-morning, sources tell me the total cleared $600,000.

* On a related note, Coakley won six endorsements yesterday from newspaper editorial boards in Massachusetts, including the Boston Globe, the state's largest paper.

* Also in Massachusetts, Republican Scott Brown has positioned himself as a regular guy, driving a truck with 200,000 miles on it, but we learned yesterday that he has nearly as many homes as John McCain.

http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/

:patriot:~Stand With Martha~:patriot:
http://www.marthacoakley.com/

[Clio the Leo]

14. Update: Nate Silver says, "It's a Toss Up"

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/01/ok-its-toss-up.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

[Clio the Leo]

15. And can anyone decipher this?

"FWIW, been doing some other research which shows that nat'l trends + PVI is really only very weakly predictive of individual Senate races."
http://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight/status/7777292750

What is "PVI"?

[Mass]

16. Partisan voting index.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

17. Here you go...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cook_Partisan_Voting_Index

[Clio the Leo]

18. thank you, that should be an interesting article. NT

[Clio the Leo]

19. Update: "W.H. considers Coakley boost"

Ugh... my stomach.

White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel has been in touch with Massachusetts Attorney General Martha Coakley's Senate campaign about a possible stop in the state by President Obama, AP reports.

More: "The White House has shown increasing alarm about the race, with Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel placing calls to top Massachusetts Democrats to assess Coakley's chances and weigh the costs and benefits of a potential Obama visit.

"Former President Bill Clinton was making two stops in Massachusetts Friday on behalf of Coakley, while former New York mayor Rudolph Giuliani was to stop in Boston to tout Brown's anti-terror credentials.

"A Coakley loss was long viewed as unthinkable among local political analysts and observers. The state not only has a Democratic governor, but overwhelming Democratic majorities in its House and Senate, as well as an all-Democratic congressional delegation."

http://www.politico.com/politico44/perm/0110/weighing_a_visit_29a09bd3-313d-4377-9146-8b176efe8302.html

[tabbycat31]

20. the WH needs to send someone to MA

my first suggestion is Michelle

[Clio the Leo]

23. Speculation: Obama going to Mass because WH thinks Coakley can win?

https://twitter.com/mikeallen/status/7800442278

(as I mentioned above, Rahm called around to see if it was worth risking some of the President's capitol to take the trip ... apparently the answer was "yes")

[Clio the Leo]

24. Update: "Coakley Internal: Brown +3"

Friday, January 15, 2010
Coakley Internal: Brown +3

I've been told reliably that Martha Coakley's internal poll for Thursday night showed her trailing Scott Brown by three points -- 47 to 44 percent.

As I wrote yesterday, her internal poll on Wednesday night had her barely ahead, 46 to 44 percent. The appearance of continued Brown momentum meshes with the Suffolk University/WHDH poll released earlier today, which put Brown ahead 50-46 percent.

The last time a public poll showed a Republican leading a Massachusetts Senate race this close to the election was, well....never. There were no public polls released in the week leading up to the 1972 election, the last one won by a Republican (Ed Brooke, who was re-elected in a landslide over John Droney). And since then, Democrats have enjoyed the stretch-run advantage in every Senate race in the state. The closest the GOP came was in 1996, when Bill Weld was within a few points of John Kerry just before Election Day; Weld lost that race by seven points.

http://stevekornacki.blogspot.com/2010/01/coakley-internal-brown-3.html

[Cha]

25. More Friday news on Coakley from

Steve Benen..

http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/

<snip>

FRIDAY'S CAMPAIGN ROUND-UP.... Today's installment of campaign-related news items that wouldn't generate a post of their own, but may be of interest to political observers.

* A new Suffolk University poll in Massachusetts shows Scott Brown (R) leading Martha Coakley (D) by four, 50% to 46%. Independent Joe Kennedy was at 3%. A Research 2000 poll released a few hours earlier showed Coakley up by eight, 49% to 41%, but the Suffolk poll is being taken more seriously, and the panic in Democratic circles nationwide is palpable.

* Vicki Kennedy filmed a new television ad for Coakley, which was released this morning and will be on Massachusetts TV sets soon.

* President Obama filmed a video message and a new robocall message on Coakley's behalf. There are also unconfirmed rumors about a possible presidential visit to the Bay State before Tuesday.

* Ten Kennedy Jr. is also appealing to voters, yesterday releasing an emotional email message in support of Coakley.

:patriot:~STAND WITH MARTHA~:patriot:
http://www.marthacoakley.com/

[RBInMaine]

26. GOTV is EVERYTHING in a SPECIAL ELECTION. If Dems come out, she wins. Simple as that.

[Clio the Leo]

27. Update: Coakley Internal - Brown +2

.... which is DOWN one point from yesterday. ;)

Saturday, January 16, 2010
Latest Coakley Internal: Brown +2
I've been told reliably that Martha Coakley's internal poll for Friday night showed Republican Scott Brown leading by two points, 47 to 45 percent. Her campaign's three-night average for Friday, Thursday and Wednesday is the same -- a 47 to 45 lead for Brown.

This is, obviously, not great news for the Democratic nominee. But it does suggest that Brown's momentum -- which took him from a double-digit gap to the lead in Coakley's poll in about a week's time -- has been arrested. On Wednesday night, Coakley's poll put her ahead by two, 46 to 44. On Thursday night, Brown surged ahead by three, 48 to 45. And on Friday, it was back to a two-point race. In other words, a nail-biter on Tuesday looks likely.

http://stevekornacki.blogspot.com/2010/01/latest-coakley-internal-brown-2.html

[Clio the Leo]

28. Early Speculation: What the GOP May do re HCR if Brown wins...

(Current Mass Sen) "Kirk Can't Vote After Tuesday"
http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/barnes-massachusetts-senatorial-race-and-obamacare

(the idea being that if Brown wins, the Dems will stall his swearing in until the HCR bill is passed. I'd imagine the President and the rest of the Dem powers that be have a few tricks up THEIR sleeves as well though.)

[Clio the Leo]

29. Random Natedog Factoid: "In similar Senate races in the past..."

In similar Senate races in the past, the candidate in Coakley's position has outperformed her polls by 2.3 pts on average.
http://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight/status/7872550181

[Clio the Leo]

31. Organizing for America made 93,000 phone calls in MA....

... yesterday ALONE.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0110/OfA_flexes.html?showall

[goclark]

45. Bless them and K and R this thread

Which someone would do a MA POLL UPDATE THREAD and link this to it.

This way we don't have to keep searching all over the place.

[Clio the Leo]

32. Half of the people at today's Brown rally.....

... weren't even from Mass.

http://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/7874979725

[Cha]

33. Sun Chronicle endorses Coakley~

Cross post-GD

TomCADem (1000+ posts) Sun Jan-17-10 08:38 PM
Original message

Sun Chronicle Endorses Coakley - Notes Brown's Militant Anti-Gay Stance and Support of Torture

Here is a dicussion of where the candidates stand on the issues, and Brown's mandate on issues like abortion, torture, gay rights, and health care.

http://www.thesunchronicle.com/articles/2010/01/17/opin...

Our choice of Coakley may be surprising to some. Her major opponent is state Sen. Scott Brown, R-Wrentham, a local figure we have endorsed in the past for state Senate, and he is supported by a minority on our editorial board.

There's much to be said for endorsing a local candidate. However, we have an insurmountable problem. To paraphrase words Brown applied to his Democratic opponent, "he's a nice man, but he's wrong on all the issues."

Brown initially took a militant stand against gay marriage, which we have consistently supported. While he has softened his position some, his outlook on equal rights in a private matter remains worrisome.

After voicing support in this space for health care reform, we can't very well back Brown when he is promising to submarine national health care on his own as "the 41st Republican senator." We are left instead to wonder how he sees himself as a fitting successor to Sen. Edward Kennedy, who made health care reform a signature issue, while planning to spoil the best chance for reform the nation has ever had. Senate candidate Martha Coakley waits for the start of a taped debate at the WBZ-TV studios in Boston. Coakley is running to fill the seat vacated by the late Sen. Edward Kennedy, but is crafting a campaign largely free of the Kennedy mystique. (AP Photo/Steven Senne, File) After making our view plain that the United States does better not to lower itself to the level of nations who use torture in pursuit of information, we cannot endorse Brown when he issues statements that water boarding is not torture and should be employed by our nation.

We have no doubts about Brown's patriotism and commend him for his three decades of service in the National Guard and rank as a lieutenant colonel in the Judge Advocate General Corps. This, however, hardly translates into foreign policy expertise. The thin skin he has shown at times, notably at a King Philip Regional High School assembly, would be a handicap in the Senate chambers. He may have a desirably harder line than Coakley on fiscal issues, but his extreme positions on choice, gender, and other social questions are out of step for our pluralistic society.

Coakley is pro-health care reform, with qualifications regarding abortion amendments. Her jobs and economy platform is well-thought-out and detailed, while Brown hangs his hat on a return to free enterprise. She is firmly committed to same-sex marriage rights.

Coakley has established herself as a leader. Her work on the foreclosure crisis in Massachusetts is evidence that she is ready to serve the people's interests while dealing with the big players in Washington.

She deserves your vote on Tuesday.

The third candidate in the special election, Joseph L. Kennedy, is running on the Libertarian ticket. He is even more ardently opposed to health care reform than Brown. Kennedy is not ready for prime time and his Libertarian no-government-interference stance on the economy is a non-starter in Washington. He is given virtually zero chance of winning, but we are happy to see him in the face. Third parties' heads need to stay above water in Massachusetts in order to offer an alternative to Democrat and Republican platforms too often crafted to please their more extreme wings.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x7492394

[Clio the Leo]

34. Weigel Tweets up Brown's rally....

"Brown rally overflowing--2 extra locations opened."

"Speaker in Brown overflow room: "I'm 65 and my grandkids want me to LIVE!"

"Brown's message of the day: Sports are awesome."

"No ideology whatsoever in Brown's speech. Baseball, underdog, truck, etc."

http://twitter.com/daveweigel

[Clio the Leo]

35. Bill Burtion "wholeheartedly disagrees" that the WH thinks Coakley will lose...

... (and he would know)

http://twitter.com/billburton44/status/7878825172

"The President is in MA today because he believes Martha Coakley is the right person for the job and indeed will be the next senator from MA."

[Clio the Leo]

36. Update: Political Wire Poll, Brown 50%, Coakley 41%...

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/01/17/poll_gives_brown_solid_lead_over_coakley.html

[Clio the Leo]

37. Update: 538.com - Coakley 49.2 Brown 48.6...

... note this is not a POLL but one of Nate's famous projections. But he urges caution as you read the numbers...

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/01/fivethityeight-still-rating.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

[Phx_Dem]

49. Nate's the only pollster I completely trust to be honest about his assessments.

So . . . . :bounce:

I'm not confident, but he's given me a glimmer of hope.

[truebrit71]

60. Me too... as long as she wins I don't care about the margin...

...because if the gop can take MA now, we are well and truly screwed this fall...

Wonderful what bi-partisanship gets you isn't it?

[Clio the Leo]

38. More from Weigel....

"My field work among Boston liberals finds a lot of folks who have been scared into voting on Tues; also baffled as to how Coakley did this."

http://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/7891750277

... the TN liberals are pretty baffled too. ;)

(but I'll GLADLY take a "scared" vote over no vote at all. And as I've said before, maybe this awakening from our 11/4/08 induced slumber will be enough to awaken the party and keep us awake until November.)

[Clio the Leo]

39. Update: Coakley camp questions the accuracy of the polls...

..... well duh!

http://senatus.wordpress.com/2010/01/18/massachusetts-senate-coakley-questions-accuracy-of-recent-polling-data/

[Clio the Leo]

40. From the GOTV ground, "I got too many Brown supporters...."

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2010/01/phone_banking_the_sea.php#more?ref=fpblg

[Clio the Leo]

41. Early turnout numbers....

... am I to presume that Boston is more left leaning?

"Boston turnout thru 9am was 23,667, or 6.6%. Mayoral final thru 9am was 18,339, or 5.2%. Boston turnout relative to elsewhere is key today"

http://bit.ly/72DdQv

[Clio the Leo]

42. Brown camp claiming lines longer in the suburbs....

... which is what you'd expect them to say.

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2010/01/19/2178073.aspx?ocid=twitter

[jenmito]

43. Yeah. Norah O'Donnell just reported that. n/t

[Bill219]

44. So after reading that report

we see that the news of the longer lines is coming from a Brown campaign adviser who is probably just talking out of his ass to discourage Dems from coming out to vote

C'mon Mass...GOTV for Coakley

[Clio the Leo]

47. ah.... I misread that....

.... I thought it came from a Coakley adviser .... I thought them saying "folks are just more enthused for Scott" was a bit odd. :)

would not have posted it if I weren't confused .... sorry, will try to go back and edit it.

[Clio the Leo]

46. Heavy turnout in Kennedy's old precinct...

"Clerk in Barnstable (Kennedy country) estimating turnout at 60% Heavy turnout at Pct. #13 (where Teddy used to vote)"

http://twitter.com/BogsWBZ/status/7951680225

.... the Democratic party may have failed Ted Kennedy but his neighbors wont!

[Kdillard]

50. That is good news.

[Clio the Leo]

48. Commentary by Klein and Weigel.....

... my two blogger Twitter-crushes break down today's election (via webcam) ..... purrrrrr

http://bloggingheads.tv/diavlogs/25372

[ohtransplant]

51. "I don't vote for women"

That's what one of the voters I called said to me. Then he hung up on me.

Others who answered were for Brown.

The rest were answering machines.

I hope I got a bad sample.

I'm still holding out hope for Coakley...

[Clio the Leo]

53. If it makes you feel any better....

.... my progressive friend who doesn't even agree with me that "Mah-tha" did a poor job with the campaign is TIRED of the phone calls and ready for "both parties to leave her alone."

[Clio the Leo]

52. "This is how we do it in Boston"

"This is how we do it in Boston: Fought the cold, wet, messy weather to vote in an old, overheated school and then I ate a whoopie pie."
http://twitter.com/miguelina/status/7955474812

gotta love that attitude! (She voted for Coakley btw)

[Clio the Leo]

54. Gibbs: POTUS was surprised and frustrated at the political situation in Mass.

Grrrrr .... this is NOT acceptable!

http://twitter.com/marcambinder

[Clio the Leo]

55. Mass Sec of State will only announce a winner if results are "decisive"....

.... which means that barring a landslide, we're gonna talking about this for a while. (Minnesota and Florida ring a bell?)

http://senatus.wordpress.com/2010/01/19/massachusetts-senate-secretary-of-state-wont-purposely-delay-swearing-in-process/

(another possible explanation for the State of the Union being 8 days away IMO.)

[Clio the Leo]

56. Coakley adviser cites Xmas Day bombing as one example of how the WH failed them...

.... you know, the underpants bomber? The event the President has a 60% approval rating for the way he handled it. :eyes:

I'm not saying the WH is blameless in all of this, far from it, but to cite THAT as a reason why Coakley is losing shows how clueless her organization seems to be.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0110/Coakley_adviser_memo_DC_Dems_faled_Coakley.html?showall

Are they going to blame the earthquake too?

[Clio the Leo]

57. Earliest the winner (whomever it is) would be seated is 1/29...

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2010/01/19/2178599.aspx

[Clio the Leo]

58. lol, what's the opposite of schadenfreude...

.... when YOU are the one suffering but you still find joy in watching the winners fight one another?

PATHETIC: NRSC Attempts to Take Credit Away from Grassroots for Brown Surge in MA

How sad. Apparently, without the help of NRSC’s crack campaign team, Scott Brown may never have had a chance at victory today. It wasn’t the tea parties, or the grassroots anger at Washington, or Scott Brown’s courage to stand against Obamacare in the bluest of states… No, it was the GOP establishment in Washington that “quietly” engineered this win. You read that right, the same political geniuses that chose Specter over Toomey and Crist over Rubio, are saying Brown couldn’t have done it without them.

http://www.redstate.com/jobressmer/2010/01/19/pathetic-nrsc-attempts-to-take-credit-away-from-grassroots-for-brown-surge-in-ma/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

lol.... but Brown doesn't want anyone to know that either!

[Clio the Leo]

59. Here we go, Coakley already questioning election integrity...

http://twitter.com/TheHyperFix/status/7962122714

[Clio the Leo]

61. Ugh: WH telling press that Dems should not panic if Coakley loses...

.... oh ...... my stomach.

http://twitter.com/marcambinder/status/7962742020