Suffolk Poll has Brown ahead by 4. Predicted Corzine by 9 5 days before the election

[Mass]

The first report by Suffolk has Brown ahead (polled between Monday and Wednesday). Small sample.


Once again, the poll shows a weird independant repartition for MA : 60 to 30. A lot of strange numbers.

http://www.bostonherald.com/news/politics/view.bg?articleid=1225720

Remember that the R2000 poll had Coakley by 8.

http://www.suffolk.edu/offices/20580.html#anchor38935

[wisteria]

1. Well, they sure were wrong about Corzine. With what you say about the numbers

on independants being weird, I am not going to accept these poll numbers.

[graywarrior]

2. I doubt the indies will show up to vote

Neither candidate is that exciting enough for them.

[TheCowsCameHome]

3. Don't underestimate the number of pissed off voters in this state.

This could be a hell of a fight.

However, I wouldn't believe a thing that the Boston Herald says.

[Mass]

7. Not underestimating anybody, but dont over estimate Suffolk abilities.

Aside from predicting Corzine by 9, they predicted Obama winning the primary in MA where Clinton won by about 11.

[jezebel]

4. If Brown wins, what is going to happen with HCR? When is the new Senator going to seated? nt

[Mass]

5. Brown is not winning. I never trust any poll by Suffolk. Their track record is atrocious.

[jezebel]

6. I'm praying you're right, but God Forbid he does.... what then? nt

[jefferson_dem]

8. What then is that we pass health care reform before the teabaggin' Brown is sworn in...

which wouldn't be until mid February.

It would suck...but it would not torpedo the bill.

[jezebel]

10. thank you for answering. Mid -Feb gives them time then worst case scenario. Of course the Rep's will

be screaming that the Senate has to wait to vote until Brown will be seated. You know it. Fingers crossed Coakley wins.

[jefferson_dem]

13. Their whining will be easy to counter with three words: "Norm Fucking Coleman"!

Anyway, here's a blurb...

The Boston Herald reported that, according to a source, Secretary of the Commonwealth William Galvin's office wants to certify the race on Feb. 20. A spokesman for Mr. Galvin's office explained that local election districts have to wait at least 10 days before they submit their returns, so military and overseas ballots can be tallied as well. 15 days is the maximum amount of time to submit the returns to the secretary's office, before they go to governor's office.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/weblogs/watercooler/2010/jan/12/rep-frank-lashes-out-over-accusations-mass-dems-wo/?cpage=5&feat=home_top5_read

[gateley]

9. Did you see Lawrence O'Donnell on KO? He said health care is not

that big an issue in MA, that Obama's lost a lot of support, and it will indeed be a squeaker. If he's right, I'm not sure the polls will tell us with any reliable certainty. They're a good barometer, though, I guess.

[TayTay]

11. Jobs are a big issue

A very big issue. Jobs are the biggest issue we have.

[burning rain]

15. O'Donnell also said that health care reform in its current state polls just 43% in favor, in Mass.

He didn't say which poll, but if that's the case, it certainly doesn't help Coakley.

[quiller4]

20. I believe that is from the PPP poll. n/t

[Mass]

16. From what I've seen, the main difference between polls is who the independents they tested are.

Some polls have them going 3 to 1 to Brown, these polls are the one showing a very close race or Brown ahead.

Other polls show a much more reasonable ratio, these polls have Coakley ahead.

There is no way to know which independents will show up and how many will show up. In MA, they are the biggest group.

If it is a race between registered Dems and registered Reps, Democrats will win.

If it is a race where many angry independents show up, Brown will win.

If it is a race where the ratio of independent is close to normal and many come, Coakley should run.

There is no way to know, and many people have updated their models by seeing the results of VA and NJ. There is no way to know if this is correct.

So, I have really no clue what will happen, but the race is close and very uncertain.

[PM Martin]

17. 3 to 1?

:wtf:

[tabbycat31]

12. MA could learn a lesson from NJ

oddly enough the day of the election is the day that Lardass takes office here in NJ (should be a fun 4 years... grr).

Democrats stayed home at the polls and now we have a Rove protege as governor. MA Dems, do you really want a teabagger as a senator?

[bigdarryl]

14. I'm sure Drudge will be posting this poll on his site in bright RED

[Arkana]

18. The Herald lies

and Suffolk sucks.

[Broke In Jersey]

19. Wish the suffolk poll had Corzine DOWN by 9

I am worried that their polls are skewed towards 'D'. I will have to look at their other polls - I am guessing that they are just plain ole all over the map.

But remember :
State elections are VERY tough to poll. Its impossible to determine WHO comes out to vote. And THAT is the key!

I personally believe that Coakley is currently up by 2-3pts.