So...from your gut....who wins in MA ?

[S_E_Fudd]

Poll question: So...from your gut....who wins in MA ?

[Arkana]

1. I think it's going to be Coakley, but I'm not watching the returns

because I'll die of an ulcer.

[Deep13]

2. I've trained myself not to think with my gut.

I realize it works well for Stephen Colbert, but not for me. :D

[S_E_Fudd]

12. So in the words of Rob Gordon...

Your guts have shit for brains :)

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

3. Coakley, but it won't be pretty. (nt)

[frazzled]

4. I just pray there is not a recount involved.

I can't take another one of those.

[Craftsman]

5. Either way it most likely goes the rethugs win

If brown wins they win and get a senator, if it is a close victory for Coakley many dems will bolk to the right in the coming election year.

[MUAD_DIB]

7. I disagree with that.

If it is a close race then, IMHO, all it means is that Coakley should have not been expecting to win and showing who Brown really is from day one.

Will it mean a move to the center/right for the Dems as a whole? I don't believe it will. I do believe that they will have to be more awake, take their elections seriously, and hammer the GOP's non-positions on everything from health care to the budget to the economy.

[mkultra]

46. yes, clearly dems will "bolk to the right"

lol

[Recursion]

6. Coakley. But this campaign has been awful

She got the nod and then disappeared, like there wasn't even a Republican running. And then she put out awful, awful ads (hint: if your candidate is a bad speaker, don't make the entire ad her speaking). I think the "Brown liked George W. Bush and will vote with the Republicans" ads will ultimately work, but what the hell is the matter with Democrats lately?

[MUAD_DIB]

9. I agree with that. Never rest on your laurels.

[hlthe2b]

8. I may still harbour a little superstition (despite my left brain tendencies)

so, I'm going to decline a prediction at this point.

[MiniMe]

10. It depends on if the dems get out to vote

That is usually the deciding factor in special elections.

[Sebastian Doyle]

11. The corporations

They have two candidates in the race. :evilfrown:

[WI_DEM]

13. I still think Coakley wins. remember CA special election for congress with Garamendi?

polls showed a much closer race in a democratic district than it turned out to be. Hoping that is the case this time too.

[Sebastian Doyle]

33. Big difference there though.

Garamendi was an actual Democrat who replaced a vile DLC'er. This seat, sadly, is going the opposite direction. And that brings to mind the losses in VA and NJ in November, when the weak, false Democrats lost.

There's no excuse to give up a seat that has been occupied by a Kennedy for over half a goddamn century. Not to a Repuke by name OR one posing as a Democrat. This one was already lost in the primary, in reality.

[democrattotheend]

41. Corzine was not a false Democrat

He was very progressive as a Senator and as governor he had to make some hard choices but I would hardly call him a false Democrat.

And I agree that Coakley will never fill Kennedy's shoes (but then again, could anyone?), but if you are in Massachusetts, PLEASE tell me you are not planning to sit this out to make a statement. You cannot possibly tell me that Coakley will not be a much better senator than Brown.

[JustAnotherGen]

63. democratotheend

Thank you for making the statement you did re: Corzine.

I'm a transplant to NJ from western NY - I've lived here since 2006. I think there was a sense of apathy amongst my fellow Democrats here. And I will be watching the Mass election on pins and needles. If Coakley loses, then we are super vulnerable. Senator Lautenberg is awfully old and we can't even seem to get off of our asses and get our legislature to enact a law that if a Senator passes/leaves office - it goes to general election. This way the progressive agenda in Washington at least stands somewhat of a chance.

Don't know if I'm rambling - but if someone is reading in Mass . . . Apathy? It means you don't stand a chance.

[Sebastian Doyle]

68. There is no such thing as a "progressive" CEO of Gold Mansacks.

Nobody with any sort of human values would ever work for such a Satanic corporation.

[Beacool]

14. Coakley by a small margin.

;)

[jefferson_dem]

15. This time yesterday, I would have said "still Coakley"...

Not sure now and would not predict the outcome for anything.

By the way, conventional wisdom has shifted in a big way. Brown is surging like a badass at http://www.intrade.com/. Around 50/50 now.

[karynnj]

16. Strange as it is to say, that might help Coakley

Anyone on the left, who thought of not voting either because they thought it was inevitable or who didn't like Coakley might be more likely to vote.

[liberalpragmatist]

17. I agree

She can win and I'm phonebanking this weekend, but honestly, I'm becoming fairly pessimistic.

The problem is that in all the polls, she is getting crushed among independents 2-1. The Research 2000 poll was an outlier in that it only had her down about 10 with Indies, and lots of undecideds.

I'm pessimistic that the last-minute ad blitz is going to win them over.

(What REALLY worries me is that a Brown victory could have a cascade effect. There's the media echo chamber, which will drag down Dem numbers, and the party's agenda will be completely stalled in the Senate, which means that they'll have far fewer accomplishments to run on and greater demoralization, and thus perhaps greater losses in November.)

[jefferson_dem]

20. I hear you. It's rough out there.

Stay strong and thanks for your hard work! :patriot:

[freddie mertz]

18. Of course I am pulling for Coakley and voted for her.

I am getting a little freaked out by the situation though.

[CK_John]

19. Nobody wins but Coakley will lose. n/t

[Aramchek]

66. just like Obama won't run in 2012, eh? your predictions are quite lacking.

[PBS Poll-435]

21. Martha by 6+

Duh.

[timeforpeace]

22. Isn't MA heavily Democrat in voter registration? So Coakley by a lot.

[harkadog]

50. Democrats are #2 to Independents.

Democrats only have 37% of the registration. Independents are at 51% which are breaking 3 to 1 for Brown.

[Clear Blue Sky]

23. Why isn't the Pres up there campaigning for her?

[Name removed]

24. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[HughMoran]

29. Except that he will be up here this weekend

So, nice try. :eyes:

[HughMoran]

28. He's going to be there

:shrug:

[polmaven]

57. President Obama will be here tomorrow....

and I got a robo-call from him yesterday. President Clinton was here yesterday.

[quiller4]

25. Coakley but by a very slim margin due to really poor campaigning.

Turning to her lawyer friends for campaign donations was fine but accepting their campaign advice was a big mistake.

[Aramchek]

26. only a repuke troll or a bitter Obama hater would think Brown has a chance

[Parker CA]

30. Well there's surely no shortage of either on DU. nt

[Aramchek]

39. sad but true

[Tailormyst]

31. Of course there is a chance

It's a very close race and there is a chance that we will lose the seat. Martha waited far to long to realize she had to actually campaign for the seat beyond the primary.

[Tailormyst]

32. self delete

wrong place

[Cha]

27. Coakley and not from my gut.

[TheKentuckian]

34. Coakley but they better GOTV instead of expecting it to just happen

I think the hyperventilating indicates this isn't blow out due to a depressed turnout. A decent GOTV should drag her across the finish line.

[Tailormyst]

35. From my gut.... I don't know.

I can see it going either way. The though of a republican in that seat makes my stomach turn.

[CoffinEd]

36. Scott Brown is a poseur

and from what I've seen on this site, he likes to pose...nekkid. Gives a whole new meaning to the term "transparent government." B-)

[Little Star]

37. Living here in MA its to close to call. I hope Coakley even

though I want this bill killed.

[democrattotheend]

42. Coakley losing won't necessarily kill the bill

It will either force Democrats to make more concessions to moderates who will have more leverage with a ticking clock for passage, or it will force them to make even more concessions to get Olympia Snowe to vote for it.

And if the bill doesn't pass, it will cripple the rest of Obama's presidency and result in worse losses in November and kill any chance of getting anything else done. So please, do not even think about not voting for Coakley or not pushing everyone you know to do the same. If we let this seat go, we give up the opportunity to bring about any progressive legislation for the rest of Obama's presidency.

[Think82]

53. Why do you want the bill to be killed

I suppose you like being denied health care for pre-existing conditions, or having caps on your reimbursement, or paying the cost of people who show up in emergency rooms.

No pub option, I get it, but you can add that later. This bill is worth passing and if it doesn't, it will kill the rest of obama's agenda, which is something I'm sure you don't want.

[bigwillq]

38. Coakley (nt)

[democrattotheend]

40. I have a bad gut feeling, but I still think Coakley could end up winning

I have a really bad feeling about the direction it seems to be going (the polls taken in the last day or two look worse than the ones taken 3-4 days ago). But I also think it's very possible that we still end up winning because it's Massachusetts. But in my gut, I have a bad feeling.

That said, I was at a bar for a friend's birthday last night, and shortly after agonizing about the race with a friend who is from Massachusetts (and confident that Coakley will win, unlike me), the band played "Sweet Caroline". I said to my friend that I thought it was a good omen.

The other thing that made me feel a little better is that my friend said his mom, who's a Democrat, just realized that she has to make sure to vote because it's going to be competitive. Hopefully there will be a lot of Democrats like her who might not have bothered but will now because they realize it's not a done deal. On the flip side, there could be some Republicans who usually don't bother voting in Massachusetts because they think it's pointless who come out this time.

[flamingdem]

43. Do it for Ted: phonebank for Coakley from home website link

http://my.barackobama.com/page/votercontact/login?requested=%2Fpage%2Fvotercontact%2Fmake_calls%3Fcampaign_id%3DfnrU

[IndianaGreen]

45. Ted Kennedy would have supported the HELP bill, not Baucus's bill

And Kennedy would have never gone alone with the Nebraska bribe or the abortion restrictions, which have no place in any health care bill.

[Hansel]

47. Ted Kennedy would have made sure it past anyway and fixed

the issues later. Because Ted Kennedy is smart enough to know new laws can be written to fix the problems and the most important hurdle is to get the damn thing started in the first place. Especially in this case where efforts have been going on for 70 years to get a health bill passed.

Also, Vicki Kennedy says he would have voted for it and I'm guessing she knows more about it than either of us.

[IndianaGreen]

51. Vicky is not Ted

Ted would have never agreed to the Nebraska bribe, and he would have put Lieberman in his place.

[IndianaGreen]

44. GOTV is always critical in these special elections

What do you have to motivate the voters to come out in crappy weather and vote in a special election? What makes anyone think that the anti-people health insurance bail out Senate HCR is the "great motivator" for the working class to come out and vote against Brown?

It is a tactical error to use the fatally flawed HCR as the reason for voting for Coakley. She is not responsible for the HCR travesty! Brown offers a lot of soft targets to Coakley, were she to exploit them to the fullest. Coakley should also come out and denounce the travesty that is the Senate's HCR, and she should explicitly state that she will represent the interests of the Massachusetts voters, and not the likes of Ben Nelson, Joe Lieberman, or even Harry Reid. Coakley should come out for the public option.

[burning rain]

48. I as much trust my gut, as I do the tea leaves.

I just don't know. I've sent Coakley a few bucks and am hoping for the best.

[racaulk]

49. I don't want Brown to win, but my "gut" tells me he has a chance of taking it.

The vote will be a nail biter, to be sure.

[quaker bill]

52. Coakley

by 3 or 4, perhaps a little better.

[OneTenthofOnePercent]

54. Brown - HCR support has been questionable if not negative. And then there are GUNS.

Coakley's big leg to stand on is HCR support. Overall public HCR support is split and questionable.
As a rallying cry for her election HCR may not be effective if people don't like the HCR.
Lets face it, the HCR could be alot better. Lacluster legislation is not a great motivator.

Also, there is the lesser played/heard issue of Gun Control. Coakley is a gun control supporter. People who support gun rights are VERY potent at the polls and often very informed on candidates stances. Give the NRA & GOP a day or two raise awareness to this and people who enjoy gun rights WILL turn out to vote. Make no mistake, as a gunnie myself I can say that even though it isn't publicized much most 2A supports do know. As a group, we keep our ears to the ground listening for grabber legislation and looking at politicians stances.

So coakley has one, maybe two issue working against her. Can the fact that this is MA and Teddy's old seat save her from defeat? If this election were held right after Teddy's seat opened up, she'd be a shoe in. Now, after everyone has been attacking the current legislatino and administration with the distractions in Haiti... it'll be close, but I think Brown could win (or at least close enough to steal it).

[Irish_shark]

55. Coakley will win. Obama is campaigning for him

And Obama is very popular in Massachussets. Obama's involvement will ensure Coakley's victory. The margin should not be large though.

[Imajika]

56. Kinda like that worked out for Corzine in NJ?

"And Obama is very popular in Massachussets. Obama's involvement will ensure Coakley's victory. The margin should not be large though."

Try this:

And Obama is very popular in New Jersey. Obama's involvement will ensure Corzine's victory. The margin should not be large though.

Yeah...

The fact that Obama is having to go Mass of all places to help GOTV is not very reassuring, and his trips to NJ to save Corzine didn't work.

[polmaven]

59. Well, I agree with you to a point...

Where we part ways is where you call Martha Coakley "him".

[PopSixSquish]

58. Coakley by a Margin So Small That We Get to Go Through a "MN Recount" All Over Again

[David Zephyr]

60. I believe that the good people of Massachusetts will elect a Democrat.

Let's hope so.

[Diamonique]

61. I think Coakley. It'll be close, but not as close as the MSM is predicting. nt

[Zavulon]

62. Hate to say it, but I think Brown will win easily.

Let's all hope I'm wrong.

[ShadowLiberal]

64. Hate to say it, but I have a strong feeling Brown will win

My gut's been right before about a couple of recent close special elections. For example I never really believed that conservative candidate Hoffman could win in NY-23, even when all the pundits & polls were saying he had it in the bag, it just didn't make sense that a radical like him could win in a district that was only R+1, especially once the republican dropped out and endorsed the democrat, then there wasn't even a chance of Hoffman winning because of the moderate democrat/republican candidate splitting the nonConservative vote.

This time around I just don't feel we have a shot, there's too many very bad signs showing up for us. For example, say what you will about the polls being accurate or not in their projected electorate, but the consistent gain by Brown when each polling company polls again is a very troubling sign. Also a bad sign is all of Coakley's staff who are anonymously talking to the media and throwing the blame at each other, would a campaign that thinks they're going to win be doing that? Remember when McCain's campaign staff was doing the same thing a few days before the election in 2008? Then quite frankly, there's a lot of PR blunders I'm seeing from our side on this race. I mean there's a front page story on politico now of Barney Frank saying the healthcare reform is dead if Brown wins, that an idiotic thing to say, because polls consistently show that radical right is more motivated at killing the healthcare bill then we are at passing it, so all Frank's doing is encouraging the neocons the get out and vote, he's not helping Coakley at all. And then there's Coakley releasing a poll showing her up by 9 points just as people are saying the race is competitive and she's getting too complacent, where's the PR wisdom in that?

Because of all this I sadly have come to the conclusion that Brown will win, and probably by a 'comfortable' margin by republican standards in the state. I pray to god that I'm wrong though and Coakley wins.

[TayTay]

65. Coakley, but it might be a long night

Or it might be like the 1996 Kerry/Weld race where it was perceived as neck-and-neck up until election day then was a 7 point difference and called at 8:30 pm

Coakley is still favored, but an upset is not out of the question. A lot of people in-state are deeply enjoying the discomfort of the Democrats right now. It just might be one of those anti-incumbent years. This favors a non-entity like Brown.

Coakley should still win. But it might be a long, long night. I have too many relatives who have voted straight Dem in the last few decades who are flirting with Brown votes. Way too many. I am worried.

[Sebastian Doyle]

67. The 1996 Kerry/Weld race wasn't dependent on electro-fraud machines.

Do I think Brown would actually win? Probably not.

Do I think the Repukes will go all out to steal it? Hell yes.

And if that happens, I expect Tim Kaine will do exactly what Terry McUseless did when Ohio was stolen in 2004.


Which is NOTHING.

[TayTay]

69. Ah, you do know that 89% of the elected in MA are Dems, right?

And that Democrats do now and have for years controlled the Secretary of State office and most local offices that determine the contracts for voting equipment?

Hello, 89% of the elected in MA are Democrats. It might just be, possibly, that the election is not about an unsupported conspiracy theory but about the voters.

[Sebastian Doyle]

71. Obviously that doesn't always protect the state.

Weld got elected, didn't he? Granted, he was probably closer to a Democrat than most DLC'ers are. But then Willard Mittens Elohim Romney was also governor. And he ain't no moderate (no matter what he called himself at the time)

[TayTay]

73. Weld won.

in '90 Weld won because the Democrat imploded. Weld won in 94 because he got about 70% of the vote.

[mochajava666]

70. Nate Silver is predicting a Coakley win

I hope the Brown surge is media generated, but it's hard to find accurate info.

[DailyGrind51]

72. Coakley, by a nail-biter!

[wisteria]

74. I agree with that! n/t

[old mark]

75. Coakley. Terrible candidate, but better than Brown. nt

[Ter]

76. Did 80% really think she would win?

Too many people vote in "think" polls for who they "want" to win, and that needs to change. I for one can differentiate the two. This is a very sad, sad day, but I realistically expected it for weeks now.

I really hope Obama moves to the left because of this, and not the right.

[Irish_shark]

77. +1 n/t