If Coakley is defeated, what other legislation is in trouble?

[UncleTomsEvilBrother]

I just saw a poll that had that Brown dude up 15 points. If Coakley is defeated, other than HCR, what other pieces of legislation could fail?

[Mass]

1. This poll is not done by a reputable firm, but the answer to the second part is ALL.

Here is Nate Silver take about this poll

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/01/one-massachusetts-poll-that-democrats.html

The poll was conducted by a firm connected with the Black Rock Group, which bills itself as a "strategic communications and public affairs firm" and whose chief spokesman/strategist, Carl Forti, just so happens to be the spokesman for this polling firm that nobody has ever heard of and just so happens (as David Dayen dutifully reports) to be the spokesman for a big pharma lobbying group that's pushed the death panels meme and just so happens to be the lead PR flak for Pajamas Media.

The polling firm also has almost no track record and the one poll they did issue showed New Hampshire Governor John Lynch with just a 44/38 (+6) approval rating whereas every other pollster in that state shows Lynch at between a +20 and a +43. So, if you account for their roughly 25-point GOP house effect, a poll showing Martha Coakley only 15 points down might be just about the best news she's gotten all week.

[Name removed]

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[boston bean]

3. Yep, us librul hillbillies up here in redstate massachusetts are a bunch of unedumacated stoopids.

Talk about divisive politics. Get a grip.

[Jennicut]

5. Well, CT was called stupid many times for voting for Lieberman. I voted against him.

There are stupid people in every state and turnout matters, big time.

[boston bean]

10. Connecticut has a real red streak flowing through it. It is not Massachusetts

Sorry you just aren't as good as us real libruls up here in MA. LOL

[Jennicut]

14. LOL. At least we don't beep at people nonstop.

Actually, I have lived in Northern CT and Central CT and there is a difference. Everyone up here is a Red Sox fan. I grew up as a Yankees fan and get dirty looks when I wear my Yankees shirt in public. And there are no Giants fans, all Patriots. My husband made me convert to the Pats years ago.

[brendan120678]

28. Yeah, I'm not too far away from you...

Waterbury is full of Democrats, but they are certainly very, very conservative Democrats.

[Name removed]

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[boston bean]

13. MA went 65% to Obama. I guess they were stoopid too.

You did not clarify your remarks and were discussing the entire state of MA.

Were they stoooooopid when they voted for Obama???

[Name removed]

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[boston bean]

17. Yeah tell that to Democratic Leadership. Will the real liberals please stand up?? nt

[karynnj]

19. and 67% for Senator Kerry

[leftynyc]

6. Pardon me?

The President should resign because a horrible candidate in MA MAY lose an election. Are you on drugs or just incredibly stupid?

[Name removed]

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[karynnj]

21. Even ignoring the 1000000000000 reasons why that is dumb and not going to happen.

Do you really thing Joe Biden would be better able to move things through - or do both need to leave and be replaced with say --- Dick Cheney (as Bush has used up his time) or McCain

You really seem to be a troll - not a liberal.

[Name removed]

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[PolNewf]

30. Your sarcasm was evident to me

If Dems lose in MA then Repugs will fillibuster everything.

If you hated Obama compromising to Conservadems wait till you see the compromises he will have to make to the Repugs to get anything done.

If I were in his shoes I'd shrug my shoulders, say fsck yah and resign rather than deal with that nightmare. He'd save himself a lot of grey hairs.

[democrattotheend]

44. Agreed

I'm glad the resigning part was sarcasm, because that's ridiculous. But I agree that a loss on Tuesday would be devastating and cripple any chance of getting anything done for at least the next year, and probably the rest of Obama's presidency. If you look at the Senate cycles, 2010 was supposed to be a good cycle for us initially, but now Charlie Cook is saying our supermajority is gone after next year. And if we lose the supermajority in 2010, we sure ain't getting it back in 2012 or 2014. This next year is our last chance to pass anything good, and if we lose Ted Kennedy's seat it's gone. I can't understand how some liberals can't see the forest for the trees and want to "send Obama a message" by sitting it out. That worked so well in Virginia and New Jersey, didn't it?

[treestar]

40. Agreed, but he would still run the executive branch

Even if no legislation passes, there is still a branch to run.

[cyclezealot]

26. Brown would better represent places like Okla.

The tea baggers ads are worth 1.4 million bucks.. Mass voters are more urban than that. There will soon be buyers remorse..
What's at stake. with the Obstruction of the Gopers.. Everything. Read the editorial in Yesterday's Boston Globe. They endorsed Coakley... .. They said he's a negative vote and his election will only give us obstruction..

[WeDidIt]

43. Just keep on talking

I foresee pepperoni.

[timeforpeace]

4. She will win easily.

[boston bean]

12. I hope you are right. I'm gonna vote for her, but for people to dismiss

the anger of indies who vote dem and some liberals is a dangerous game to play.

[still_one]

18. I am hoping that this is just the MSM trying to create a horse race, and that you are right

I do know one thing, the insights from the MSM, and even a lot of the polls has not been particularly accurate

[jefferson_dem]

7. HaHa.

Classic concern post. Bravo!

[villager]

11. For the sake of argument, should Brown win, the Dems will have to nut up, and quit courting Repubs

They will have to end the tyranny of Nelson and Lieberman in the Senate....

[still_one]

15. The question is could a progressive candidate win in the states you think the Democrats

need to end the tyranny of, because if a progressive Democrat cannot win in Nebraska and other "bible-belt" states, then your argument is moot

[boston bean]

20. Republicans have just as many middle of the road repubs and Bush

certainly got them to do what he wanted, didn't he.

And he got plenty of dems to sign on to the destruction of this country.

[still_one]

24. I am sorry, but what middle of the road republicans are in Congress now?

[villager]

22. argument not moot if they don't live with the tyranny of the filibuster threat

n/t

[quiller4]

25. Coakley beat a progressive in the primary so I think the answer is "no"

[JVS]

41. Lieberman is from Connecticut, that shouldn't be a problem. Then target the Maine 2 and NH 1 repubs

[treestar]

39. Of course they will have to court Repubs

They will have to have Nelson, Lieberman and at least one Repug.

Snowe/Collins will be back in the driver's seat.

[JVS]

42. If Brown wins the "pragmatist" "moderate" "centrists" are going to use it as an excuse to do nothing

HCR revealed that the party's right wing is out of control, and by giving the republicans an easy filibuster the party leadership doesn't have to worry about another sickening display of sausage making purely among the democrats.

[democrattotheend]

45. Actually, they will have to court them even more

In order to get to 60 votes for anything. I can't understand people who buy into this backwards argument or think anything good could possibly come from losing this seat. If we want anything to get passed in the next year, WE CANNOT LOSE THIS SEAT. If we do, we will have to compromise with Republicans even more than we already do. It's that simple.

[ElmoBlatz]

46. Huh?

Should Brown win, they will HAVE to court Repubs. At least one in the Senate.

[bigwillq]

27. I don't think Brown's going to win.

We will see soon, though. I do think it'll be close, but I think Coakley pulls it out.

[jenmito]

29. Link to poll that had Brown up 15 points? TIA.

[Mass]

31. Nate Silver comments on this poll.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/01/one-massachusetts-poll-that-democrats.html

[jenmito]

32. Thanks. I read it. It's not really credible. And even if Brown DOES win, healthcare WILL pass

since he won't be certified 'til after we have a bill signed into law.

[PolNewf]

33. Don't count on it

Dems have taken way too long already.

If Brown does win I expect Dems to retreat into self preservation mode and republicans to tie up the senate in endless procedures.

[jenmito]

34. I AM counting on it. The Dems. are wrapping it up as we speak. A final bill should be

sent to the CBO soon and voted on in about a week or so. Brown won't be sworn in by then if he DOES win.

[PolNewf]

35. I hope they do but I have my doubts.

I would say fears rather than doubts but I'm not really affected. My fears for you perhaps?

Obama's remark to the house about proving the fearmonging wrong is spot on. Hopefully Dems will be brave enough to stick it out and prove the fearmonging\hand ringing from both the right and left wrong.

Unfortunately, if the Dems in congress are in anyway a reflection of the "Dems" I've recently been watching on DU, I think you are fscked.

[jenmito]

37. Watching the news today, I have no doubt.

Ed Schultz just said the healthcare bill is hours away from coming together and it looks like Nancy Pelosi is winning the fight on the national exchange.

[GinaMaria]

36. Here are the CON plans to mess up the vote on this

I posted it earlier today.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x7471161

[treestar]

38. Everything

Every single thing. The Repukes will be able to filibuster every single thing. And they will. They've proven that.

[Unvanguard]

47. The jobs bill, conceivably. It depends somewhat on how moderate Brown is.

And how willing Snowe and Collins are to cooperate with the Democrats. (And, of course, also how loyal Nelson, Landrieu, and Lieberman decide to be.)