Nate Silver: One Massachusetts Poll That Democrats Shouldn't Panic About

[babylonsister]

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/01/one-massachusetts-poll-that-democrats.html

One Massachusetts Poll That Democrats Shouldn't Panic About
by Nate Silver @ 11:24 AM


Worry about Suffolk. Worry about what PPP and Rasmussen are going to have to say over the weekend. But for the love of God, don't worry about the Pajamas Media poll which reports a 15 point lead for Scott Brown, which I'm not going to do the favor of posting a link to.

The poll was conducted by a firm connected with the Black Rock Group, which bills itself as a "strategic communications and public affairs firm" and whose chief spokesman/strategist, Carl Forti, just so happens to be the spokesman for this polling firm that nobody has ever heard of and just so happens (as David Dayen dutifully reports) to be the spokesman for a big pharma lobbying group that's pushed the death panels meme and just so happens to be the lead PR flak for Pajamas Media.

The polling firm also has almost no track record and the one poll they did issue showed New Hampshire Governor John Lynch with just a 44/38 (+6) approval rating whereas every other pollster in that state shows Lynch at between a +20 and a +43. So, if you account for their roughly 25-point GOP house effect, a poll showing Martha Coakley only 15 points down might be just about the best news she's gotten all week.

[FrenchieCat]

1. But yet, that is precisely what is happening,

on Du and on the Teevee with all of the talking heads.

[depakid]

2. Polls in America are more often meant to influence public opinion

than to accurately reflect it.

Part and part of America's culture of lies.

Nice to see over the past several months that Nate's gaining some awareness of that fact.

[dkf]

3. I was hoping he would say don't worry about the Suffolk poll.

Darn.

[Clio the Leo]

4. Exactly....

.... and quite the opposite happened .... he still thought Coakley would win (giving Brown only a 25% chance earlier in the week) until he saw the Suffolk poll at which point said, "ok, it's a toss up."

[janet118]

5. It's seems like the Coakley folks are picking up the clue phone . . .

hope it's not too late.

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