(R) Brown 47% (D)Coakley 44% - Coakley Internals

[LiberalLions]

Steve Kornacki has written about politics for the New York Observer and Roll Call, and his work has also appeared in the New York Times

I've been told reliably that Martha Coakley's internal poll for Thursday night showed her trailing Scott Brown by three points -- 47 to 44 percent.

http://stevekornacki.blogspot.com/2010/01/coakley-internal-brown-3.html

[Teaser]

1. Coakley leaked the bad end of her polling spectrum

to make sure Obama shows up. It's that simple.

[PM Martin]

2. How do you know this?

[Teaser]

4. Because they wouldn't leak a bad poll

like this without an ulterior motive. It does them no good.


Having worked on polling for a major campaign, I can tell you that they run all kinds of internal polls. They run best case and worst case scenarios.

This is almost certainly a "worst case". Could happen. But you don't leak a worst case poll unless you want to motivate someone to do something.

[ElmoBlatz]

9. Sounds like a dumb strategy to me

By leaking the worst case poll, seems to me all they are doing is firing up the other team. A month ago Brown didn't have a chance. Now he apparently does. Leaking that he's actually LEADING fires up his base, and depresses ours. Explain to me how thats a good plan?

If its to the get the President to do something, surely you can get word to him without leaking it.

[Teaser]

10. The assumption is:

Brown has maxed out his base. They are ALL going to vote. You can't fire them up more.
Our base, however, is far from maxed out, and needs a kick in the ass.

That said, if this doesn't work, the worst case polling will be right, and we will lose.

[Arkana]

14. Right. You don't have to release an internal poll. Also, this leaves about 8-9% undecided

most of which would break for her or the Libertarian dude.

[democrattotheend]

7. I hope you are right

I was thinking the same thing - that she wouldn't leak a bad poll unless she was trying to scare up support. It's risky, though - it could wake up some apathetic Democrats, but it could also add to the perception that Brown has the momentum.

[Teaser]

8. Clearly the numbers concern them.

I would guess even their best numbers aren't where any of us would like them to be. And remember, even a worst case scenario poll can be true, if turnout totally goes against us...

[depakid]

3. Anyone who thinks that they know the internals is a fool

not that there aren't a lot of suckers out there. Seems to be in many people's nature to be saps.

[Ian David]

5. See also: Phonebank from home for Martha Coakley- Stop Scott Brown!

Phonebank from home for Martha Coakley- Stop Scott Brown!
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=106x33906

[rgbecker]

6. Here's Real Clear Politics polls on this race.....

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/ma/massachusetts_senate_special_election-1144.html

Note the registered voters vs. Likely voters.

[brentspeak]

11. There were fools who believed that Christie could not beat Corzine in NJ

Based on the ludicrous notion that a so-called "blue" state wouldn't elect a Republican.

[Teaser]

12. most everyone admits that Brown can win here

it's a matter of assessing probabilities at this point.

[LiberalLions]

13. Maybe she leaked it

I just spoke with a Politico reporter online that believes Coakley leaked the poll to get Obama there

[Name removed]

15. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Perky]

16. That leak is meant to get Dens to the polls n/t

[PM Martin]

17. How do you know this?

:shrug:

[Teaser]

18. see the above.

if there wasn't a motive, it wouldn't have been leaked.

[PM Martin]

20. I Hope it works.

I have a bad feeling though.

[Thrill]

19. I haven't followed this race. How did this happen? Is she just a bad candidate?

What happened?

[Zynx]

21. Very complacent candidate. She didn't seem to care about the race until

her numbers started plunging.

[smalll]

24. A bad candidate. And worse:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x7473873

[dcsmart]

22. R any of the Kennedy's campaigning for her...

that would help

[Aramchek]

23. thanks for your concern, NotSoLiberalLiens

[Mass]

25. And kornacki knows that because?

[RBInMaine]

26. This special election is ALL about GOTV. If Dems come out, she wins. Simple as that. So GOTV !

[WI_DEM]

27. 47-44 within margin of error and with dem edge in MA a massive gotv should give her the win.

[Recursion]

28. This is why I voted for Khazei in the primary. Sigh.