NY-Sen-B: Gillibrand Leads Ford in Primary

[ccharles000]

Marist (pdf): (1/13-14, registered voters, 11/16-17 in parentheses)

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 43
Harold Ford Jr. (D): 24
Undecided: 33
(MoE: ±5%)

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 45 (45)
George Pataki (R): 42 (47)
Undecided: 13 (8)

Harold Ford Jr. (D): 36
George Pataki (R): 42
Undecided: 22
(MoE: ±3.5%)

With the once-fanciful idea of Tennessee's Harold Ford Jr. running for the Senate in New York seeming a little closer to reality with each week, Marist decided to poll the question. (This comes despite various Democratic bigwigs trying to warn Ford off -- this time, it was fellow centrist Martin Frost's turn.) Marist finds that Kirsten Gillibrand has a large edge over Ford in the Democratic primary, although with a substantial number of unknowns, suggesting that Gillibrand doesn't have things locked down and that people don't really know what to make of Ford yet (if they've even heard of him, which I suspect most New Yorkers haven't).

In the general, they find that Gillibrand has improved her position against Republican ex-Gov. George Pataki slightly over the last few months, while Ford loses by 6 (although, again, that may have to do with Ford not being well-known). Also, there's very low likelihood of Pataki running; while he hasn't ruled it out, his actions lately have pointed more toward a dark horse run for the Presidency. In fact, another Republican is tired of waiting, and went ahead and declared his candidacy: Port Authority Commissioner Bruce Blakeman. Given the GOP's recruitment woes in this race, he may be the best they can put forward.

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/6211/nysenb-gillibrand-leads-ford-in-primary

[WCGreen]

1. Bobby Kennedy, Hillary Clinton...

You would think that there weren't any people in the third largest state capable of representing New York...

[Smarmie Doofus]

2. If you mean these pickin's are dismayingly slim.........

... I'd say your point is unassailable.

[WCGreen]

3. Not many people move to Ohio to run for the Senate....

How come so many people want to move to New York to run for the Senate...

[golfguru]

4. New York is arguably the most cosmopolitan area in country

and they are used to seeing people from all over the globe coming to do business.
It is a little different in Wyoming, N. Dakota and even Ohio.

[WCGreen]

7. Yea but still, the rest of New York seems to be just like Ohio...

[Smarmie Doofus]

5. I wouldn't mind if someone accomplished or even ....

.... just promising would turn up once in a while. I don't see that Mr. Ford brings anything of that sort to the table.

Actually RFK was raised largely in NYS so that wasn't much of a leap. HRC had absolutely no connection but was simply annointed by the party... I'm trying to think of another word for "bosses" but can't at the moment... probably 'cause having her in the senate raised their own prestige and influence in DC. ( Or so they thought).

There was actually a world of difference between RFK's short but remarkable tenure as US Senator and Ms. Clinton's earnest but bland stint. I'm not comfortable lumping them together ... even as carpetbaggers.

[WCGreen]

6. I felt embarrassed for New York when they bandied about Caroline's name...

[stevenleser]

8. Moved back to NYC in 2004 after 14 or so years away from this area of the country and...

there are some weird dynamics at play here. Downstate democrats seem to beat each other to death in primaries in lesser contests. This is because in a lot of metropolitan NYC area races, if you win the primary, its a lock that you are going to win the whole thing. This makes each Democratic primary vicious. By the time they get to bigger positions, they have a huge amount of enemies among other Democrats. Its hard to win a state-wide race in NY if you don't have near unanimous Democratic support downstate.

Spitzer, the last elected Democratic governor of NY, never held a downstate office. His first elected office was NY State attorney general. He had been an ADA before that in NY City, something to which you aren't elected, you are hired/appointed.

The previous Democratic elected NY Governor, Mario Cuomo, also never held downstate office (although he did run for mayor and there was a bitter race there between Cuomo and Ed Koch).

The last couple of elected Democratic Senators from NY are Schumer and Clinton. Clinton we know about, Schumer is an exception in that he was a congressman from a Brooklyn district.

[Smarmie Doofus]

10. Interesting analysis. I'm thinking Schumer won because of.....

... generalized Damato fatigue ( I think he had only two terms but it seeeeeemed like four) and he held on to RW dems because of his hawkish foreign policy.

They preferred the mega-military Damato to DEM mainstreamers ( liberals) like Green and Holtzman.

[stevenleser]

17. I think you are right there. It's often childish here in races...

... Person A (elected Democrat) supports the opponent of Democratic candidate X because Democratic candidate X supported the opponent of person B who is a friend of Person A.

It's almost a vendetta driven system. People really dislike each other after races and hold grudges. I supported the loser in the recent race for NYC Comptroller. The things that the other guy did to win really pissed me off, so I can understand, but if it came to supporting that person vs a Republican in a bigger race someday, there is no question that I would. Nor is that an idle statement on my part. The NYC comptroller is the #2 position in the city, so that guy is a leading candidate for mayor by default 4 years from now.

[Smarmie Doofus]

9. Not as embarrassed as WE were. Good god. nt

[whistler162]

12. You where that is sad.....

Don't know if she would have made a good Senator or not. But, given the attacks on both Caroline Schlosberg and Kristen Gullibrand by the "progressives" I would say that the "progressives" need to resolve some issues.

[whistler162]

11. You do realize Bobby Kennedy was as much a New Torker

as a massachustian(or whatrever). He lived and went to school in New York in his youth. So comparing himn to carpetbaggers like Hillary Clinton or H. "Edsel" Ford jr. is incorrect.

[Name removed]

13. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[dsc]

16. I think you really need to rethink that post

it comes across as a wee bit racist, which I know isn't your intent.

[rvablue]

14. Where the hell have I been???? Ford is running for the Senate in NY???

Whaaa?!?!?!??!

[WeDidIt]

15. Though I'd prefer a more progressive person than Gillibrand

it is good news that Ford is probably a flash in the pan.