PPP POLL (MA Senate): Teasers for now. Too close to call. Final results tomorrow.

[jefferson_dem]

What we're seeing in Massachusetts: week 2

Here's what we saw on day 1 of our Massachusetts poll:

-The electorate is becoming more Democratic. Last weekend we found it at Obama +16 and now we see it at Obama +20. So all the efforts to get the party base more engaged in the election are paying off.

-Balancing that out to some extent though is that we're now seeing Brown win about 19% of the Obama vote, in comparison to 15% on our poll last week.

-Both candidates have seen a pretty large increase in their negatives over the last week, reflecting the increasingly nasty nature of the campaign.

-Even though the race is too close to call overall, 58% of voters think Brown has made a strong case for why he should be elected while only 41% say the same of Coakley. That speaks to voter perceptions that Brown has run the superior campaign and again you have to wonder how different things might be if Coakley had acted with a sense of urgency ever since the primary.

If today's interviews hold up through tomorrow I don't think we're going to be able to make a clear prediction of the winner in our final poll- still too close. Expect the final results tomorrow night between 10:30 and 11.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/01/what-were-seeing-in-massachusetts-week.html

[Hello_Kitty]

1. Interesting. Obama is more popular in MA than ever but Coakley is struggling.

So her problem is probably more a reflection on her campaign than anything else.

[jefferson_dem]

4. No doubt.

Let her shitty campaign be a lesson, however. Do not underestimate the teabagger phenomenon. Even good people can be swept up into their hateful nutbaggery.

That being said, I have faith Coakely will win. Hoping tomorrow's rally with Obama wakes the MA Dems up. I fully expect him to be "en fuego"! Urgency is word for the day!

[Hello_Kitty]

7. Plus, special elections are notoriously low turnout.

Even the most dynamic challenger (which I consider Brown to Coakley) has to overcome a huge apathy barrier. Just because independent voters are telling pollsters they're going to vote for Brown doesn't mean they're going to arse themselves to get to the polls.

[mdmc]

39. isn't there also a third party teabagger running as well?

[HughMoran]

2. Interesting...

at least there are dynamics in play that make the final outcome uncertain - sounds like the Dem push has reversed his surge - perhaps it will break our way by Tuesday - I sure hope so.

[jezebel]

3. Please refresh my memory, what did PPP have as a result last week? TIA nt

[Jennicut]

5. Brown by a point. Looks like this is a tied race. It will be within the margin of error.

[jenmito]

13. Wouldn't that be something if it was so close that Coakley demanded a recount over and over

until healthcare was passed? Stall like they did in MN!

[Clio the Leo]

27. That is EXACTLY what I think will happen....

... regardless of who is declared the winner Tuesday night (unless she wins by a big margin and I dont expect her to.)

[Teaser]

19. That's a better place than I feared it would be

this morning.

[karynnj]

23. From what they wrote here, it may still be about there or even slightly better

Assuming that Obama +20 is 60/40, the 19% of Obama's 60% would go to Brown, putting her at near 50. This assumes that she gets zero of the 40%. This is a 3 way race, so assuming that the third party candidate takes no more of the remaining portion of the 60, than he takes of the 40, she could be slightly ahead.

But, this really looks tied from the teasers.

[jefferson_dem]

6. Brown up 48/47.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/01/toss-up-in-massachusetts.html

[IndianaGreen]

8. Unless a lot of people stay home on Tuesday, Coakley should win

Brown is a reactionary who is exploiting the legitimate grievances about the Senate's sell out to corporations in order to get elected. Brown would be more corporatist than the Blue Dogs that ditched the public option.

Martha Coakley is the better choice!

[Clio the Leo]

28. Sure is nice to see us all in agreement about this...

... (and I dont mean to pick on you, this is more of a general statement.)

lol, feels like old home week. :)

[smalll]

9. Poll "teasers?" What fresh hell is this?

I WANT THE NUMBERS NOW!

;)

[Grand Taurean]

16. Here are some Rasmussen numbers:

Republican: 10,000,000%
DEMOCRAT Party: -666%

:sarcasm:

[pocoloco]

10. Whose voting machines are they using?

[KingFlorez]

11. It's a good thing if the base is more energized

That is the only way we will win this, if our base turns out.

[jenmito]

12. Hopefully, then, Obama's visit tomorrow will help enough to give Coakley the win. n/t

[Hello_Kitty]

15. I don't see why not.

Apparently, he's very popular there and if he mobilizes the Dems that should be enough to put Coakley over the top.

[Grand Taurean]

14. Can Obama convince the inner city minorities to come out and

vote. They will make a great difference in our favor.

[iceman66]

17. How could anyone be both pro-Obama AND pro-Brown?

Unless they have absolutely no interest in, or understanding of, any of the major national issues.

If you're that clueless, why bother to vote at all?

I just don't get it.

[Grand Taurean]

18. One thing I do not like in these numbers

is that the pro-Obama electoral increased by 4% as did "Obama supporter for Brown" increase by the same number.

[Teaser]

21. meh

really either increase may not mean anything.

I'm more encouraged that it's still tied: no more Brown progress to speak of yet.

[Grand Taurean]

22. All I can say is GOTV!

I am looking forward to seeing the poll AND internals tomorrow.

[Clio the Leo]

29. He's a likeable guy and they're moderate Republicans...

... or left leaning independents.

I'm going to behave and not point out this is one of those instances where him not governing from the far left help us. :)

[burning rain]

33. Yes indeed, better keep those far-left types away from Massachusetts.

No hope for those wild-eyed crazies there. Massachusetts wants moderates like Ted Kennedy!

[Clio the Leo]

36. Which explains why the GOP is threatening to take the seat....

:shrug:

[burning rain]

45. It just seemed to me you were suggesting looking for votes among moderate Republicans.

While any vote is welcome, I think looking for votes from GOP mods would be a less likely strategy. Obama's speech on Coakley's behalf at Northeastern today had a strong left-populist character, which I think better suits a Democrat running statewide in Massachusetts.

[burning rain]

32. Doubtlessly some airheads in there who just go for the more charismatic candidate.

.

[treestar]

42. Maybe they won't

Actually go and vote for him, that is. People that airheaded are easy to distract.

[Teaser]

20. There is nothing worse than a Teaser.

Everyone agrees.

[Hello_Kitty]

24. One out of one Teasers apparently agrees.

That's enough for me. :shrug:

[frazzled]

25. I wish people had been this interested during the primaries

Capuano would have been the superior candidate. The voter turnout was horrendously low:

The Boston Globe reports that as of 3 p.m. ET, only 35,000 people had voted in Boston, less than 10% of the city's registered voters.

People were complaining back then about what a lifeless personality Martha Coakley was (I'm not saying anything about her politics; just her campaign abilities). The big endorsement from Bill Clinton was not such a gift, maybe.

No use crying over spilt milk, however. Let's hope the turnout is high.

[Clio the Leo]

30. Hopefully we have ALL learned our lesson....

.. before it's too late.

the voters, the powers that be in the party etc.

[liberalpragmatist]

34. Yeah Capuano would have been a FAR better choice

Hopefully he'll get his chance if Kerry retires. (I'm pulling for Secretary of State John Kerry after 2012 :) ).

Still, that's water under the bridge for now. We just need to hope that Coakley wins on Tuesday!

[grytpype]

26. When you run a bad candidate with a weak campaign, you give the scum an opportunity.

One could think of examples besides Coakley.

But we can't have David Axelrod running every Dem campaign.

[Clio the Leo]

31. Dont forget Plouffey.

One thing I'm noticing is that OFA seems to be a LOT more active in this campaign (as of last week) than they were last fall ... that was always a puzzle. Wish they could just put the Coakley team on the bench and handle the rest of the game.

[flamingdem]

35. Keep up the good work MA and others nt

[jefferson_dem]

37. Coakley's Internal Poll Shows Her Trailing by Two

Coakley's Internal Poll Shows Her Trailing

Steve Kornacki reports that Martha Coakley's (D) internal poll for Friday night showed Scott Brown (R) leading in the U.S. Senate race by two points, 47% to 45%. Her campaign's three-night average for Friday, Thursday and Wednesday is the same -- a 47% to 45% lead for Brown.

It's important to note that these numbers do not include any possible fallout from Coakley's gaffe calling Red Sox great Curt Schilling a Yankee fan.

Meanwhile, after one day in the field, Public Policy Polling says it's unlikely their final poll will be able to make a clear prediction of the winner because it's still too close. Results are expected late Sunday night.

http://politicalwire.com/

[Teaser]

38. any internal poll released by the Coakley camp now

is purely intentional and for motivational purposes.

Which is not to say that it mightn't be right.

[DavidDvorkin]

41. We don't know if that's a real Coakley internal poll

And if it is, we don't know if it was released deliberately.

Kornacki claims it's a Coakley internal poll that was passed to him by an insider. We don't know the truth about it.

[Teaser]

43. if it is a real poll

it was almost certainly released deliberately.

[ShadowLiberal]

40. This could be the first good news from polling companies to poll the state twice

As far as I know all the companies to poll the state recently since it got tight, and then poll it again, had Brown gaining significantly from their first poll using the exact same voter turnout models (such as jumping up 7 points in Rasmussen), so for PPP to even say Brown's still up by just a net of 1 point would probably be a somewhat hopeful sign for us, that Coakley's stopping the bleeding.

[BayAreaDem]

44. All the models are based on voter turnout

PPP finds are 60% obama voter vs 40 % McCain voter. ( 19% Obama voter going to Brown )

Last survey results were 56% obama voter vs 44 % ( 16% O voters turned out for Brown ) Brown lead Coakly 48-47

Its difficult to understand if McCain voters are for Coakly now, otherwise the race is balanced to 55/45 in favor of brown.

Remember Obama won the state 62/36

I guess the 10-12% Obama voters are switching sides vs projected by PPP (maybe error in pressing buttons in robo call, people tend to loose interest after entering for main question ), this looks more likely as per his approval in Dems 87% in latest ABC/Wapo/PEW poll)

in 60/40 voting pattern, I see Coakly winning by 54/46...

[Arkana]

46. Who the HELL in Obama's base is VOTING for that FUCK?!?!?!

Tell me who they are so I can string them up by their goddamn underpants on a flagpole!

[Freddie Stubbs]

47. Final Results:

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/01/massachusetts-senate-poll.html