Senate races in 2010?

[BlueStater]

Truthfully, I haven't been following politics the last year or so last like I used to. I've been so disgusted with various things that all the passion has been sucked out of me. I keep hearing from various big mouths that 2010 will be a bad year for Democrats but is the GOP really in that much better shape? Here's the layout so far that I know of.

Most vulnerable Democratic senators: Harry Reid, Blanche Lincoln

Most vulnerable Republican senators: Richard Burr

Are there any I missed? What vacant seats do we (or they) stand a good chance of picking up?

And I'm absolutely livid that we could possibly lose Massachusetts. How could we possibly fuck up so badly?!? How?!?

[Clio the Leo]

1. Mark my words....

.... if tomorrow night goes badly, next fall wont be as bad as it would have been. Better to let the teabaggers sneak up and steal one seat from us now than 20 seats in November.

[wisteria]

2. It would not be good at all inf Coakley did not win. Go Coakley. n/t

[golfguru]

11. Exactly....it will mean better candidates will throw their hats in the ring

for republiCONS in November, encouraged by results in Massachusetts.

Do NOT spare any effort for Martha if you live in MA.

[PhilosopherKing]

5. Provided of course we re-energize

the base.

[Clio the Leo]

7. Exactly.....

.... which is why it happening now is the optimum time.

[Ildem09]

3. were going to loose

2-3 seats in the senate and about 15-25 in the house. thats the wall all the models are gaming out at this point

[BP2]

4. This time last week, the models also said Martha was going to rub Brown-noser in his own crap.

Let's hope your models are more accurate.

[Ildem09]

6. we are going to loose seats

its a matter of how many. the only time an incumbent party has won seats in an off year was in 36, 96,02 The Great Depression,Backlash from Newt Gingrich, and aftermath of 9/11. we are over exposed in the house with dems in districts with a CPI of R+10 we are over represented in the south and interior west.

[murielm99]

8. We need to look at our own state, too.

Can we keep the governor's mansion? Which of the Democrats can beat Mark Kirk? It would be just as terrible to lose Obama's Senate seat as to lose Teddy Kennedy's seat.

[Ildem09]

14. I'm worried

about Alexi, Hoffman plays more to my heart strings. and Quinn, if he can please the Emperor enough i think the machine can turn it out for him. Kirk Scares me though

[murielm99]

15. I like Hoffman more, too.

But Alexi has the name recognition, and will probably win the primary.

I like Hynes best. But I think Quinn will take the primary. I don't think Quinn has shown much leadership.

Another big question is redistricting. We need to keep our majority to keep redistricting in Democratic hands. We have to keep the governorship, or a republican governor can veto the redistricting. We would then have to have hearings all over the state. We have the voting rights act here, and it affects how minorities are counted. We can't use the Iowa plan, just using a computer. Minority districts are redrawn first to comply with the voting rights act. And, we are only 35,000 people away from losing a Congressional District! (All this information comes from Cullerton. He just had a conference call with all the county chairmen about this issue. We need TURNOUT in these elections).

[Ildem09]

16. actually

the way redistricting works is both parties but their name in a hat and someone draws the card what ever party is pulled gets to do it. yeah weird I know, it's an old Illinois law that hasn't been repealed

*Edit: The Illinois-15th CD my home CD is most likely to get eliminated in the next round. David Gill is a great candidate though, he has a tough climb against Tim Johnson

[murielm99]

21. They only pull a party name out of the hat if the legislature

reaches a stalemate. They often do. But we control both houses and the governorship at this time. The legislative deadline of 2011 could be reached this time, because the Democrats want to redraw the map. But would a new governor, if he is republican, sign the legislation? We need to keep that office.

Kirk is running for governor because he knows he might lose his district. I hope Kirk wins his primary. He made those remarks about shooting Quinn if he raises taxes. Now there is speculation that he is gay. He has baggage. He could be easy to beat.

[Bucky]

10. "lose"

If you "loose" 20 seats, it just means you'll let them off their leashes, or throw them about like Zeus tosses thunderbolts.

[golfguru]

12. Are you my English teacher? n/t

[Bucky]

18. Based on the fact that we've never met and I've never taught you anything. I'll say "yes"

Seriously, please use English in the future.

[Ildem09]

13. thanks!

I didn't catch the Spelling error. I apologize. It's been a long day

[liberalpragmatist]

9. It's not looking so good now

Most of the current projections are 2-4 losses. Honestly, with Massachusetts close, losses in Illinois, Pennsylvania, and Delaware - all of which seemed likely to stay Dem in the end - look a lot more possible. And frankly, Boxer in California may be in serious trouble.

2-4 losses only is still possible, but I'd say right now it looks more like 5-6, maybe 7-8.

[Ildem09]

19. Illinois will end up a mixed bag i think

It all depends on if the emperor decides to turn the machine to 110%

[w4rma]

17. Obama got rid of his campaign team after he was elected and hired the losers he beat in the primary.

We're toast with Rahm and all these former Bush administration appointees in place.

[AlinPA]

20. Specter in PA is questionable. Tied with Toomey now in polls, could be another

close one like MA because of the teabagger energy and Specter being worn out. A lot of Democrtas don't trust him.