What does high turnout mean in MA election?

[cally]

It appears that turnout is high for the MA Senate election. Conventional wisdom is that this is fantastic for Democrats however some reporters are implying that this helps Brown???? If the turnout is high in Boston, and elsewhere, doesn't this help Coakley?

Massachusetts insights. Please??

While I'm asking questions, what should we look for tonight? I assume rural precincts report first and Boston precincts tend to report last. So, tonight we should expect early leads for Brown and then Coakley surging ahead to win when the last precincts report. MA please offer insights.

Thank you.

[SteppingRazor]

1. In short, yes, high turnout is good for Coakley.

Democrats outnumber GOP three-to-one in Mass, so part of Brown's game plan always relied on typical off-year voter turnout.

[cally]

2. Thank you!!

That's what I was hoping to learn.

[cali]

6. well, except independents outnumber dems and they're supposedly breaking

2 to 1 for brown. high turnout in Boston is good. In quite a few towns like those around Peabody- Boxford, Topsfield, etc. not so good.

[Raven]

3. In the snow? In an off election? It means that Coakley will take it...

the assholes they bussed in for Brown are snowbound and can't vote anyway. Wonder why not more Brown people seen holding signs at the polls? They are wimps.

[Xipe Totec]

4. All I know is that low voter turnout spells doom for Democrats

This may not mean that high voter turnout implies Democratic victory, but the chances are far better.

[secondwind]

5. high turnout means over 70%

[frazzled]

8. Well, if right now it's double what it was in the primaries, it's only 25% or so

The primaries attracted an astonishingly low turnout.

My guess is that the turnout numbers at this point are predictive of, well, nothing.

[Arkana]

7. Brown is going to say it helps him and the media will dutifully

report his words as gospel truth.

The machine is Democratic and the machine is in fucking overdrive.

[tridim]

9. MSNBC is convinced that high turnout is good for Brown.

No idea why they say this since it's 180 degrees out of whack with conventional wisdom.

MSNBC (daytime) is solidly supporting and proping up the GOP candidate. They love Brown.

[otohara]

11. Until Election is Over MSNBC Is Unwatchable

Boo MSNBC Boo.

[MrsBrady]

18. +1

[Xipe Totec]

15. It's the typical repug mentality

Everything is a positive sign for their side.

Low voter turnout? That means a Republican win!

High voter turnout? That means a Republican win!

Mediocre voter turnout? That means a Republican win!

The groundhog sees his shadow. That means a Republican win!

The groundhog does not see his shadow. That means a Republican win!

Somebody shoots the groundhog. That means a Republican win!

[ObamaKerryDem]

19. "No idea why they say this since it's 180 degrees out of whack with conventional wisdom"

Which perfectly describes MSNBC (with the exception of Keith, Rachel, and from what I've seen at least, Ed) since this race went national....."180 degrees out of whack with conventional wisdom".

Lately, *most of* MSNBC=Fox News-lite. :thumbsdown:

[Kdillard]

10. It depends on where the high turnout is. It does give Coakley a better chance though than if turnou

is low. Hopefully we get the high turnout and numbers in the areas we need it.

[jenmito]

14. They keep reporting on the news that turnout is very high in Brown strongholds.

I hope they're just spinning it.

[Kdillard]

17. Well there are also reports of high turnout in Coakley areas and Ted areas. Hopefully

They will be enough to give Martha a chance.

[Recursion]

12. Back in 2004 we were saying high turnout was good for Kerry

because "people don't stand in line to vote for the status quo" or something like that. I don't think anybody knows what it really means.

[karynnj]

28. We were right.

If the people in those lines in Ohio would have been able to vote in say an hour (far longer than my suburban 5 minutes from leaving my car to returning and that included a brief chat with a neighbor!) Kerry would have won. Many people had to abandon lines that were 4 to 10 hours long.

Even then it mattered where the lines were. In 2004, they were in the innercities caused partially by intentionally too few machines.

[Jersey Devil]

13. Check this post linked inside

I think it explains it very clearly:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=433&topic_id=134265

[Cha]

20. Thanks..I saw that before but I didn't read it.

Very interesting.

[salguine]

16. There's no point in trying to endlessly speculate about what every little development means, you'll

just make yourself crazy.

[jenmito]

21. MSNBC is reporting that turnout is very high in Brown strong-holds and very low

in Coakley strong-holds.

[ObamaKerryDem]

24. Of course they are. He's their new golden child, it seems.

Guess Palin is old news..:thumbsdown:

With the exception of Keith, Rachel, and possibly Ed's show, I'm going to be watching MSNBC a LOT less after this election, regardless of the outcome. They've lost me with this one..

[joeglow3]

25. Ummm, so you are turning the TV off???

CNN is the only other one I can stomach.

[ObamaKerryDem]

26. I guess so, lol, at least until closer to the evening.

CNN has been a little better during this race than MSNBC, though none of the channels seem to be the "liberal media" we are supposed to have..at least not lately.

[Name removed]

22. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[jenmito]

23. Why do you despise Al Gore? n/t

[karynnj]

29. Rather proud of your new decision rule aren't you?

From your name, you don't belong here. The fact is that there are likely two different numbers - where above n% is historically high and m where it is historically low. Maybe take the 2 sigma point of each series (and here, there is a problem as you have little data on special elections for a hotly contested Senate race.

It would be asinine to use 50%, because the addition of two voters can switch it from low to high - pretty silly.

[salguine]

30. Run, everybody! Smug-storm!

[WI_DEM]

27. Depends it could mean the dems are gotv or a rising tide wanting to send dems a message