The fact that Coakley was up 30 points just weeks ago proves this is NOT a referendum on Obama.

[jenmito]

All day the media is "asking" if this election is a referendum on Obama and his policies, and the answer is almost always "yes." But if it were true, why was she UP by 30 points not too long ago and fell so far? Because she ran an awful campaign. That's ALL.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

1. whatever

[Drunken Irishman]

7. Sound reasoning.

[JVS]

2. If she were holding that lead, would you say the same thing?

[jenmito]

10. No. If she ran a good campaign and remained in the lead, I'd say it was expected

since she's a Dem. replacing Ted Kennedy.

[Drunken Irishman]

3. She played prevent defense.

[firedupdem]

4. The media is full of crap. They want it to be a referendum on

Obama.

[jenmito]

21. Yup.

[Thrill]

5. They've been begging for this story

And they may finally get it. Every special election is supposed to be about Obama

[Mass]

6. Nelson deal did not help. I know you dont want to hear that, but her campaign

would not have sunk her if Brown did not have arguments that people were ready to listen.

[brentspeak]

8. And that changed -- weeks ago -- after Brown stated he wanted to be the HCR-defeating vote n/t

[jenmito]

12. She was in the lead with the people knowing where she stood in the bill. n/t

[Mass]

16. Not true after Nelson's deal was inserted and the public option stripped.

Kerry had to write editorials in early January to explain why MA was not cheated, so I guess that this idea is correct.

People in MA were expecting to get something out of the bill. With these two points, they got the feeling that once again, they had to pay taxes for states who cannot take care of themselves, and this during a difficult period.

[jenmito]

19. So they prefer someone who wants to kill the bill?

I don't think so.

[Mass]

20. Independents who care more about tax and jobs. YES. but of course, you know MA better than people

from MA.

I a, not saying she did a good campaign, I am saying that her mediocre campaign would not have sunk her if people did not find her opponent to have a compelling argument.

[Hello_Kitty]

43. Yes. eom

[mzmolly]

9. Exactly. It's about Coakley - period. And the fact that Brown CLAIMS to be a "moderate"

which means he'll have to behave as such if he wins.

[IndianaGreen]

11. Virginia, New Jersey, and possibly Massachusetts... the common thread is Obama

A majority of Americans reject the Senate's version of HCR. They didn't like the sausage making, they don't want this particular sausage, and they don't care about the sausage makers.

[ingac70]

13. Electing Repubs means a majority of Americans....

DO NOT want any health care reform at all.

[firedupdem]

17. or anything else for that matter. n/t

[jenmito]

14. Explain why she was up 30 points. n/t

[totodeinhere]

22. The more mundane question is "why did she lose 30 points?"

She was up 30 because it's Massachusetts, one of the bluest states in the country. But losing 30 points that fast has got to be more than just running a poor campaign. I'll bet you that if the Dems in Congress had passed single payer she would still be winning by 30 points. We have got to wake up. This GOP lite crap is not working.

[jenmito]

26. She lost 30 points because she ran the worst campaign

ever. She swore she had it in the bag. It's NOT about HCR.

[JVS]

32. That's an evaluation, not a description. What did she do to piss the voters off?

[jenmito]

33. She went on vacation while Brown was campaigning. She made some comment about not feeling the need

to stand outside Fenway Field and shake hands. She didn't know which team Shilling was on...

[Little Star]

15. +1

[ProSense]

25. Corzine's approval was in the 30s before Obama took office. n/t

[jenmito]

27. Exactly.

[karynnj]

38. Not to mention that the month before the election 41 NJ officials

were caught in a corruption sting - mostly Democrats. They included mayors in some of the cities that are typically where huge Democratic margins are from.

In addition, his campaign had a goal of running a negative campaign hoping to create a very low turn out, where the Democratic big city machines could pull out enough votes.

Corzine had done a really good job dealing with a huge budget hole when the state lost $19 billion in tax revenues caused by the economy. NJ has many people who work on Wall Street and their huge incomes were decimated and capital gains were not what they were in previous years. All this in addition to what others states faced. Corzine managed to cut the budget while keeping every school getting what they got the year before and he expanded the SCHIP program.

Now, one way he prevented cuts to that is that he eliminated the property tax rebate that NJ residents have gotten for years for everyone with household income greater than $150,000 and reduced it for those over $100,000.

"The rebate program, which provides relief in a state notorious for high property taxes, was already cut by $382.5 million in the $32.9 billion budget Corzine signed in June. That reduced rebates for households earning $100,000 to $150,000 to an average of $665 and eliminated them for households making over $150,000. Households earning up to $100,000 received checks averaging $1,115. Tenant rebates also shrank, from as much as $350 to $80."
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2009/02/corzine_may_propose_eliminatin.html

In wealthier counties, many people who considered themselves middle class were affected by this and even at a Democratic county meeting where he presented it, many were upset. Given the economic times, it might not have helped, but the fact that there was no attempt by him during the election time period to explain what he saved instead of saving the complete rebate fro everyone.

[David Zephyr]

31. You are wasting your breath. 'There are none so blind as those who will not see.'

Of course, it is a referendum on Obama. How else could this cobalt blue state even flirt with going red in a Kennedy seat?

I think there are those who would sacrifice the Democratic Congress and Senate just so they could continue praising Obama. That's the question folks should ask themselves: which is more important.

[ProSense]

39. You're calling someone else blind? Explain how the election is a referendum on Obama when Coakley

was up 30 points two weeks ago?

You can't. All you do is what all the opportunist do who jump on any bit of news that can be spun as negative, easy, transparent cheap shots.

[jenmito]

42. Thanks for the common sense post, ProSense.

:hi:

[vincna]

34. I completely agree

Brown has said he would vote against the Senate Bill. The connection is obvious to anyone looking at this objectively.

[ChimpersMcSmirkers]

44. The common thread is horrible candidates. Using VA in particular

is extremely weak. The polling clearly demonstrated that people were not voting based on Obama, but then again facts don't seem to matter to the baggers.

Try again (rhymes with tater)...

[depakid]

18. Actually considering what'a happened over December and Jan

That would be pretty good evidence

[Clio the Leo]

23. The fact that the President is polling higher than both Coakley and Brown is proof. NT

[jenmito]

28. Yup. Just another fact the media chooses to ignore. n/t

[Cha]

24. It's not a referendum on Pres Obama even

though the coporatemediawhores and some on this board want every election since he won to be about him..until the Dem wins and then it's back to other ways to try and bring him down.

Suckers are too preDICtable.

[jenmito]

29. It's a shame that so many Dems. on this board agree with the media

though.

[DevonRex]

30. They just WISH it were and also take every possible chance to bash him.

They are pathetic.

[jenmito]

35. They keep saying it MUST be a referendum on Obama even when a guest

answers that it's not and gives a logical explanation why not.

[DevonRex]

37. Sounds a lot like DU, doesn't it? nt

[jenmito]

40. Yes, it does. n/t

[DevonRex]

36. You're right. But those determined to hate Obama and blame him for

anything and everything will continue to do so no matter what the facts are. And they'll continue to make their OWN contributions to Democratic losses.

[NorthCarolina]

41. DLC playlist: (A) Stage the loss, (B) Blame the Liberals, (C) Move the party to the right

Up 30 a week ago, and now on the verge of an upset? Interesting.

[tledford]

48. You left out one part.

(D) lose. (Sorry, "loose" for the illiterates.)

[jgraz]

45. Except the GOP made the race into a referendum on Obama

And then Coakley lost 30 points.

[catgirl]

46. I agree

Plus Brown did a sneak attack. There have been teabaggers here since October.

[RememberWellstone]

47. Good point!

Screw it...we'll get them back in November.