An exit survey of Massachusetts voters confirms that “decreased turnout among constituencies that historically have voted for progressive candidates,” combined with a strong Republican performance among independents, delivered Scott Brown the margins he needed to win.
<...>
But even despite the depressed progressive turnout in yesterday’s election, a majority of voters (51%) still felt Obama and the Democrats are
. Issues, while important to voters, split along partisan lines: Coakley won health care voters, while Brown won among jobs and economy voters and tax/spending voters:
– Forty-six (46%) of voters said their vote was mainly to show support for health care reform rather than to show opposition to it (35%).
– Independents sent a clearer signal on the issue, with 44% stating their vote was mainly in opposition to reform and 30% saying it was mainly in support.
– Coakley voters were stronger in their support for reform (80% said their vote was mainly in support of reform) than Brown voters were in opposition to it (65% said their vote was mainly in opposition to reform).
– Coakley won among voters who rated health care reform a “10” on an importance scale (Coakley 53% to 47% for Brown), Brown won among voters who said the same for jobs and the economy (Brown 55% to 44% for Coakley) and won bigger among voters who highlighted taxes and spending (Brown 70% to Coakley 29%).
Brown, who supported Mass health reform, ran on protecting Medicare. Independents were opposed to a bigger government role in health care.
Summary: Republicans' confusing spin won.